This week's picks

South Carolina vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick, Week 9 2026

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Data updatedOct 31, 2026
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Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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South Carolina at Oklahoma

Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM ET, Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK).

The numbers say: Oklahoma, 58% to win.

The game

KickoffSat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM ET
TVSEC Network
WhereMemorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
Weather66°, light rain, wind 7 mph
LineOklahoma −3.5, total 44.5
Line movementOpened Oklahoma −5.5; moved 2 points toward South Carolina. Total opened 43.5, up 1.
SeriesTied 1–1
Last meetingOklahoma 26–7 in 2025

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+Oklahoma by 1.855%44
PRIMEOklahoma by 2.958%
EloOklahoma60%
The lineOklahoma −3.5, opened −5.544.5, opened 43.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Fri, Oct 30, 7:43 PM ET.

Who wins, South Carolina or Oklahoma?

The numbers say: Oklahoma. 58% chance to win

Which matchups decide South Carolina vs. Oklahoma?

All three ratings favor Oklahoma, by 1.8 to 2.9 points. Oklahoma's best matchup is its pass rush, 5th in sack rate, against South Carolina's pass protection at 88th. South Carolina's way back in is its run defense, 35th in EPA per rush allowed, against Oklahoma's run game at 131st. We left out the edges built on Jawarn Howell, who's out.

South Carolina with the ball

Oklahoma with the ball

Who's out for South Carolina and Oklahoma?

South Carolina

Oklahoma

How South Carolina and Oklahoma compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; South Carolina and Oklahoma are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How South Carolina's and Oklahoma's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate South Carolina and Oklahoma?

On a neutral field, SP+ has South Carolina 0.7 points better (28th to 33rd). PRIME has Oklahoma by 0.4 instead. Elo, which only sees results, has Oklahoma ahead (27th to 34th).

South CarolinaOklahoma
SP+ overall11.0 (28th)10.3 (33rd)
SP+ offense33.6 (23rd)24.3 (88th)
SP+ defense23.1 (47th)14.2 (6th)
SP+ special teams0.5 (4th)0.2 (42nd)
PRIME net11.0 (26th)11.4 (25th)
PRIME offense7.97 (23rd)-2.47 (86th)
PRIME defense3.20 (42nd)12.99 (4th)
PRIME SOS2.7 (17th)7.8 (2nd)
PRIME SOR1.0 (40th)1.8 (22nd)
Elo1702 (34th)1719 (27th)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

South Carolina's offense ranks 20th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Oklahoma defense it faces ranks 2nd in EPA per play allowed. Oklahoma's offense ranks 101st against South Carolina's 76th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Oklahoma's passing game: 33rd in adjusted EPA per pass, against South Carolina's 107th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and South Carolina's offense climbs from 50th to 20th in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.

South CarolinaOklahoma
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.19 (20th)+0.06 (101st)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.23 (36th)+0.23 (33rd)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.13 (24th)−0.04 (131st)
Success rate (adjusted)45.5% (30th)40.2% (86th)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)51.2% (14th)44.5% (109th)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)30.3% (75th)30.4% (70th)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.93 (79th)0.88 (135th)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)3.21 (6th)2.83 (110th)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.27 (30th)1.07 (89th)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.11 (76th)−0.05 (2nd)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.26 (107th)+0.07 (6th)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.03 (35th)−0.02 (12th)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)41.1% (58th)33.3% (2nd)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.91 (22nd)0.95 (93rd)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)2.80 (24th)2.82 (28th)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)1.06 (51st)1.09 (56th)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, South Carolina or Oklahoma?

South Carolina is better running (13th in EPA per rush) than throwing (91st). Oklahoma's run defense ranks 21st, so that's strength on strength. Oklahoma is better throwing (74th in EPA per pass) than running (137th). South Carolina's pass defense ranks 118th, so that's an edge.

South CarolinaOklahoma
EPA per play+0.18 (50th)−0.02 (125th)
EPA per pass+0.16 (91st)+0.21 (74th)
EPA per rush+0.24 (13th)−0.19 (137th)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.82 (6th)+0.11 (128th)
EPA per play allowed+0.13 (89th)−0.12 (4th)
EPA per pass allowed+0.36 (118th)−0.04 (8th)
EPA per rush allowed−0.03 (33rd)−0.06 (21st)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.45 (86th)+0.13 (9th)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, South Carolina or Oklahoma?

South Carolina outscores FBS opponents by 10.8 a game, and Oklahoma by 3.9. South Carolina's offense ranks 21st in scoring, and the Oklahoma defense it faces ranks 24th in points allowed. Oklahoma's offense ranks 110th against South Carolina's 79th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.

South CarolinaOklahoma
Points scored36.1 (21st)21.6 (110th)
Points allowed25.3 (79th)17.7 (24th)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

South Carolina's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 5th in yards per carry, and Oklahoma's defense ranks 49th in yards per carry allowed. Oklahoma has no clear edge here. Its best is success rate, 111th, against a defense ranked 69th in success rate allowed.

South CarolinaOklahoma
Pass yards / game244.3 (53rd)229.9 (70th)
Rush yards / game223.4 (17th)121.1 (124th)
Yards per play6.81 (24th)5.73 (100th)
Yards per carry6.49 (5th)3.98 (129th)
Yards per attempt7.60 (70th)8.04 (49th)
Completion %64.0% (65th)69.0% (36th)
Success rate48.4% (27th)39.4% (111th)
Explosive play rate13.7% (37th)9.3% (123rd)
3rd down conversion48.0% (18th)36.8% (90th)
Sack rate (taken)6.3% (88th)7.4% (105th)
INT rate (thrown)2.2% (64th)4.0% (122nd)
SUPLEX56.7% (66th)46.0% (126th)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

South Carolina's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 32nd in yards per carry allowed, and Oklahoma's offense is bottom-20 in yards per carry (129th). That's a mismatch. Oklahoma's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 5th in sack rate, and South Carolina's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding sacks (88th). That's a mismatch.

South CarolinaOklahoma
Pass yards allowed / game225.6 (94th)158.9 (8th)
Rush yards allowed / game128.1 (37th)133.6 (45th)
Yards per play allowed5.47 (51st)5.03 (18th)
Yards per carry allowed4.21 (32nd)4.54 (49th)
Yards per attempt allowed7.11 (71st)6.21 (31st)
Success rate allowed41.9% (69th)32.9% (6th)
Explosive plays allowed10.6% (59th)9.1% (18th)
3rd downs allowed35.8% (48th)25.3% (3rd)
Sack rate (generated)7.5% (38th)10.9% (5th)
INT rate (generated)1.8% (92nd)2.2% (77th)
SUPLEX allowed54.0% (70th)43.7% (11th)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

South Carolina has the better number in 9 of 12. The biggest gap is line yards per carry, where South Carolina ranks 13th and Oklahoma 129th.

South CarolinaOklahoma
Big Uglies: offensive line57.3 (21st)41.8 (121st)
Big Uglies: defensive front55.5 (28th)59.3 (15th)
Line yards per carry3.47 (13th)2.60 (129th)
Line yards allowed per carry2.56 (18th)2.85 (60th)
Second-level yards per carry1.23 (28th)0.71 (136th)
Open-field yards per carry2.06 (8th)0.96 (98th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)14.7% (27th)21.9% (119th)
Stuff rate (defense)21.8% (30th)18.4% (77th)
Power success (short yardage)78.3% (31st)63.6% (117th)
Power success allowed66.7% (39th)62.5% (23rd)
Front-seven havoc allowed9.2% (72nd)10.9% (112th)
Front-seven havoc9.3% (75th)12.3% (18th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

South Carolina is −0.4 in turnover margin a game and Oklahoma is −1.0. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for South Carolina. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.

South CarolinaOklahoma
Interceptions thrown / game0.71 (61st)1.14 (121st)
Fumbles lost / game0.57 (74th)1.00 (127th)
Giveaways / game1.29 (72nd)2.14 (132nd)
Interceptions / game0.57 (85th)0.57 (85th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.29 (94th)0.57 (51st)
Takeaways / game0.86 (107th)1.14 (67th)
Turnover margin / game-0.4 (100th)-1.0 (126th)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

South Carolina has the more talented roster (15th in the 247Sports talent composite; Oklahoma is 17th). But Oklahoma plays further above its talent: −1.5 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to South Carolina's −1.6.

South CarolinaOklahoma
Talent composite862.9 (15th)851.1 (17th)
Blue-chip ratio52.5% (14th)53.0% (12th)
Players on roster110 (75th)110 (75th)
Rated by 247Sports80 (60th)83 (47th)
5-star players4 (11th)4 (11th)
4-star players38 (16th)40 (15th)
3-star players36 (124th)37 (123rd)
Below 3-star2 (68th)2 (68th)
2026 transfers in28 (41st)18 (97th)
Transfer share35.0% (45th)21.7% (99th)
SP+ vs. talent-1.6 (73rd)-1.5 (72nd)
Returning production69.0% (24th)63.2% (38th)
Returning passing production65.4% (60th)92.1% (41st)
Returning rushing production80.1% (40th)121.6% (12th)
Returning receiving production67.2% (20th)41.6% (62nd)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)14 (14th)15 (15th)
Recruiting rank, last four classes17.5 (18th)11.0 (11th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Which roster costs more?

Oklahoma's roster is valued at $32.6M, South Carolina's at $23.2M. Dollar for dollar, South Carolina plays better: +2.5 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −5.5 for Oklahoma.

South CarolinaOklahoma
Roster value$23.2M (30th)$32.6M (14th)
Roster cost per win$5.8M (43rd)$8.1M (59th)
Projected wins per $1M0.29 (31st)0.18 (62nd)
SP+ vs. payroll+2.5 (26th)-5.5 (55th)

NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.

Where did each team's wins come from?

South Carolina is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.1). Oklahoma is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.4).

South CarolinaOklahoma
RECEIPTS (total)+0.5 (57th)+0.5 (57th)
Schedule RECEIPTS-0.5 (113th)-1.4 (134th)
Roster RECEIPTS+1.1 (16th)+1.2 (15th)
Coach RECEIPTS+0.1 (62nd)+0.1 (62nd)
Luck RECEIPTS-0.3 (86th)+0.6 (33rd)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

South Carolina at Oklahoma: questions people ask

South Carolina vs. Oklahoma prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick Oklahoma, 58% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Oklahoma's best matchup is its pass rush, 5th in sack rate, against South Carolina's pass protection at 88th.

Where can I watch South Carolina vs. Oklahoma, and what time is it?

Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM ET at Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK). It's on SEC Network.

What's the projected score of South Carolina vs. Oklahoma?

SP+ projects Oklahoma 23–21. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for South Carolina at Oklahoma?

DraftKings has Oklahoma −3.5, total 44.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the South Carolina vs. Oklahoma series history?

It's tied 1–1. Last meeting: Oklahoma won 26–7 in 2025.

Who are the players to watch in South Carolina vs. Oklahoma?

South Carolina: Lanorris Sellers (1,594 passing yards), Matthew Fuller (509 rushing yards) and Mazeo Bennett (334 receiving yards). Oklahoma: John Mateer (1,603 passing yards), Lloyd Avant (321 rushing yards) and Isaiah Sategna (578 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in South Carolina at Oklahoma?

South Carolina's is Lanorris Sellers (1,594 passing yards this season); Oklahoma's is John Mateer (1,603 passing yards this season).

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

South Carolina and Oklahoma: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.