This week's picks

Auburn vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Pick, Week 9 2026

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Data updatedOct 31, 2026
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Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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Auburn at Ole Miss

Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 12:45 PM ET, Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.

The numbers say: Ole Miss, 80% to win.

The game

KickoffSat, Oct 31, 12:45 PM ET
TVSEC Network
WhereVaught-Hemingway Stadium
Weather73°, cloudy, wind 7 mph
LineOle Miss −11.5, total 57.5
Line movementOpened Ole Miss −10.5; moved 1 point toward Ole Miss. Total opened 53.5, up 4.
SeriesAuburn leads 35–13
Last meetingOle Miss 28–21 in 2023
Ole Miss injuriesLacy (RB), out

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+Ole Miss by 10.778%57
PRIMEOle Miss by 10.577%
EloOle Miss86%
The lineOle Miss −11.5, opened −10.557.5, opened 53.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Fri, Oct 30, 7:43 PM ET.

Who wins, Auburn or Ole Miss?

The numbers say: Ole Miss. 80% chance to win

Which matchups decide Auburn vs. Ole Miss?

All three ratings favor Ole Miss, by 10.5 to 10.7 points, and it isn't close. Ole Miss' best matchup is its offense, 11th in success rate, against Auburn's defense at 99th. Auburn's way back in is its run game, 16th in EPA per rush, against Ole Miss' run defense at 90th. We left out the edges built on Lacy, who's out.

Auburn with the ball

Ole Miss with the ball

Who's out for Auburn and Ole Miss?

Auburn

Ole Miss

How Auburn and Ole Miss compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Auburn and Ole Miss are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Auburn's and Ole Miss' players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Auburn and Ole Miss?

On a neutral field, SP+ has Ole Miss 8.2 points better (16th to 51st). PRIME also has Ole Miss ahead, by 8.0. Elo, which only sees results, also has Ole Miss ahead (8th to 37th).

AuburnOle Miss
SP+ overall6.5 (51st)14.7 (16th)
SP+ offense26.5 (72nd)37.2 (7th)
SP+ defense20.4 (31st)23.2 (48th)
SP+ special teams0.4 (11th)0.7 (1st)
PRIME net6.4 (38th)14.4 (15th)
PRIME offense1.00 (57th)11.41 (9th)
PRIME defense5.35 (26th)2.68 (47th)
PRIME SOS6.2 (8th)7.3 (4th)
PRIME SOR1.5 (30th)2.7 (11th)
Elo1669 (37th)1923 (8th)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Auburn's offense ranks 50th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Ole Miss defense it faces ranks 65th in EPA per play allowed. Ole Miss' offense ranks 8th against Auburn's 49th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Ole Miss' offense against Auburn's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Auburn's run game: 16th in adjusted EPA per rush, against Ole Miss' 90th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Ole Miss' defense climbs from 102nd to 65th in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.

AuburnOle Miss
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.13 (50th)+0.23 (8th)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.15 (95th)+0.30 (17th)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.13 (16th)+0.15 (8th)
Success rate (adjusted)41.5% (70th)50.3% (3rd)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)45.7% (86th)53.0% (2nd)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)31.7% (43rd)34.2% (11th)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.98 (11th)0.93 (77th)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)3.08 (35th)3.15 (14th)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.28 (29th)1.10 (79th)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.07 (49th)+0.10 (65th)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.17 (53rd)+0.17 (57th)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.07 (74th)+0.09 (90th)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)40.4% (48th)41.3% (63rd)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.93 (59th)0.94 (80th)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)2.92 (56th)2.87 (39th)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)1.03 (43rd)1.18 (84th)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Auburn or Ole Miss?

Auburn is better running (37th in EPA per rush) than throwing (113th). Ole Miss' run defense ranks 109th, so that's a mismatch. Ole Miss is about as good throwing (33rd in EPA per pass) as running (34th). On third down, Ole Miss has the edge: its offense ranks 34th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 62nd.

AuburnOle Miss
EPA per play+0.11 (79th)+0.26 (21st)
EPA per pass+0.08 (113th)+0.35 (33rd)
EPA per rush+0.16 (37th)+0.17 (34th)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.44 (76th)+0.59 (34th)
EPA per play allowed+0.09 (70th)+0.16 (102nd)
EPA per pass allowed+0.21 (83rd)+0.20 (80th)
EPA per rush allowed+0.09 (83rd)+0.15 (109th)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.38 (62nd)+0.44 (85th)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Auburn or Ole Miss?

Auburn outscores FBS opponents by 1.3 a game, and Ole Miss by 10.7. Auburn's offense ranks 93rd in scoring, and the Ole Miss defense it faces ranks 79th in points allowed. Ole Miss' offense ranks 24th against Auburn's 69th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Ole Miss' offense against Auburn's defense.

AuburnOle Miss
Points scored25.4 (93rd)36.0 (24th)
Points allowed24.1 (69th)25.3 (79th)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Auburn's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 39th in explosive play rate, and Ole Miss' defense ranks 91st in explosive plays allowed. Ole Miss' best matchup is staying on schedule: its offense ranks 11th in success rate, and Auburn's defense ranks 99th in success rate allowed. That's a mismatch.

AuburnOle Miss
Pass yards / game213.0 (89th)290.0 (16th)
Rush yards / game189.1 (42nd)152.8 (89th)
Yards per play5.54 (113th)6.69 (31st)
Yards per carry5.83 (28th)5.52 (41st)
Yards per attempt5.94 (124th)7.70 (66th)
Completion %57.0% (101st)66.8% (45th)
Success rate39.6% (110th)51.4% (11th)
Explosive play rate13.4% (39th)13.1% (43rd)
3rd down conversion41.1% (65th)45.3% (37th)
Sack rate (taken)10.7% (127th)2.2% (6th)
INT rate (thrown)2.8% (91st)3.1% (100th)
SUPLEX52.2% (96th)64.6% (17th)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Auburn's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 23rd in interception rate, and Ole Miss' offense is bottom-40 at avoiding interceptions (100th). That's a mismatch. Ole Miss' defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 29th in interception rate, and Auburn's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding interceptions (91st). That's a mismatch.

AuburnOle Miss
Pass yards allowed / game253.3 (115th)226.5 (97th)
Rush yards allowed / game154.1 (74th)173.8 (99th)
Yards per play allowed5.99 (81st)5.65 (65th)
Yards per carry allowed4.39 (40th)4.78 (69th)
Yards per attempt allowed8.21 (97th)6.90 (60th)
Success rate allowed44.8% (99th)40.9% (61st)
Explosive plays allowed10.9% (65th)12.2% (91st)
3rd downs allowed37.8% (60th)44.0% (106th)
Sack rate (generated)6.1% (70th)4.8% (102nd)
INT rate (generated)3.7% (23rd)3.5% (29th)
SUPLEX allowed54.6% (76th)53.9% (67th)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

They split these evenly, 6 each. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc allowed, where Ole Miss ranks 12th and Auburn 123rd.

AuburnOle Miss
Big Uglies: offensive line50.5 (66th)57.6 (20th)
Big Uglies: defensive front49.1 (73rd)52.2 (52nd)
Line yards per carry3.10 (58th)3.08 (65th)
Line yards allowed per carry2.86 (62nd)2.76 (52nd)
Second-level yards per carry1.18 (39th)1.09 (64th)
Open-field yards per carry1.45 (42nd)0.92 (101st)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)16.0% (39th)17.1% (64th)
Stuff rate (defense)17.8% (83rd)23.6% (16th)
Power success (short yardage)83.3% (14th)66.7% (100th)
Power success allowed75.7% (99th)71.9% (76th)
Front-seven havoc allowed11.6% (123rd)6.0% (12th)
Front-seven havoc10.0% (57th)9.9% (60th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Auburn is +0.3 in turnover margin a game and Ole Miss is −0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for Auburn. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.

AuburnOle Miss
Interceptions thrown / game1.00 (105th)1.14 (121st)
Fumbles lost / game0.29 (20th)0.43 (53rd)
Giveaways / game1.29 (72nd)1.57 (107th)
Interceptions / game1.14 (14th)1.00 (22nd)
Fumbles recovered / game0.43 (69th)0.43 (69th)
Takeaways / game1.57 (28th)1.43 (41st)
Turnover margin / game+0.3 (50th)-0.1 (77th)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

Ole Miss has the more talented roster (14th in the 247Sports talent composite; Auburn is 18th). Ole Miss also plays further above its talent: +0.7 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Auburn's −3.9.

AuburnOle Miss
Talent composite828.2 (18th)885.7 (14th)
Blue-chip ratio36.0% (21st)52.7% (13th)
Players on roster113 (51st)112 (58th)
Rated by 247Sports89 (29th)93 (14th)
5-star players1 (24th)5 (10th)
4-star players31 (19th)44 (10th)
3-star players57 (86th)43 (116th)
Below 3-star0 (113th)1 (86th)
2026 transfers in40 (13th)29 (34th)
Transfer share44.9% (26th)31.2% (60th)
SP+ vs. talent-3.9 (93rd)+0.7 (62nd)
Returning production14.4% (110th)50.3% (55th)
Returning passing production0.0% (109th)79.1% (53rd)
Returning rushing production26.3% (87th)83.8% (35th)
Returning receiving production8.8% (126th)19.4% (105th)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)31 (31st)22 (22nd)
Recruiting rank, last four classes16.8 (16th)20.5 (19th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Which roster costs more?

Ole Miss' roster is valued at $34.1M, Auburn's at $27.7M. Ole Miss also plays better per dollar: −2.1 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −5.7 for Auburn.

AuburnOle Miss
Roster value$27.7M (18th)$34.1M (8th)
Roster cost per win$6.9M (55th)$6.8M (53rd)
Projected wins per $1M0.20 (58th)0.22 (54th)
SP+ vs. payroll-5.7 (58th)-2.1 (41st)

NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Auburn is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.2). Ole Miss is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.3). Auburn's record is running 1.0 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.

AuburnOle Miss
RECEIPTS (total)+0.5 (57th)+1.5 (30th)
Schedule RECEIPTS-1.2 (130th)-1.3 (133rd)
Roster RECEIPTS+0.8 (23rd)+1.3 (13th)
Coach RECEIPTS-0.1 (72nd)+0.6 (42nd)
Luck RECEIPTS+1.0 (12th)+0.9 (18th)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Auburn at Ole Miss: questions people ask

Auburn vs. Ole Miss prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick Ole Miss, 80% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Ole Miss' best matchup is its offense, 11th in success rate, against Auburn's defense at 99th.

Where can I watch Auburn vs. Ole Miss, and what time is it?

Sat, Oct 31, 12:45 PM ET at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. It's on SEC Network.

What's the projected score of Auburn vs. Ole Miss?

SP+ projects Ole Miss 34–23. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Auburn at Ole Miss?

DraftKings has Ole Miss −11.5, total 57.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Auburn vs. Ole Miss series history?

Auburn leads 35–13. Last meeting: Ole Miss won 28–21 in 2023.

Who are the players to watch in Auburn vs. Ole Miss?

Auburn: Byrum Brown (1,379 passing yards), Jeremiah Cobb (320 rushing yards) and Keshaun Singleton (440 receiving yards). Ole Miss: Trinidad Chambliss (1,958 passing yards), Lacy (386 rushing yards) and Deuce Alexander (610 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Auburn at Ole Miss?

Auburn's is Byrum Brown (1,379 passing yards this season); Ole Miss' is Trinidad Chambliss (1,958 passing yards this season).

Who's out for Auburn at Ole Miss?

Ole Miss: Lacy (RB), out.

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Auburn and Ole Miss: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.