This week's picks

Missouri vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick, Week 9 2026

College Football Charts
Data updatedOct 31, 2026
Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

Share as an image

Image style

Missouri at Arkansas

Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 7:45 PM ET, Razorback Stadium.

The numbers say: Missouri, 75% to win.

The game

RivalryBattle Line Rivalry
KickoffSat, Oct 31, 7:45 PM ET
TVSEC Network
WhereRazorback Stadium
Weather63°, rain, wind 7 mph
LineMissouri −10, total 48.5
Line movementOpened Missouri −10.5; moved 0.5 points toward Arkansas.
SeriesMissouri leads 13–4
Last meetingMissouri 31–17 in 2025

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+Missouri by 12.181%52
PRIMEMissouri by 7.971%
EloMissouri73%
The lineMissouri −10, opened −10.548.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Sat, Oct 31, 1:14 PM ET.

Who wins, Missouri or Arkansas?

The numbers say: Missouri. 75% chance to win

Which matchups decide Missouri vs. Arkansas?

All three ratings favor Missouri, by 7.9 to 12.1 points. Missouri's best matchup is its early-down defense, 16th in SUPLEX allowed, against Arkansas' early-down offense at 120th. Arkansas' way back in is its ball security, 36th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Missouri's takeaway defense at 67th.

Missouri with the ball

Arkansas with the ball

Who's out for Missouri and Arkansas?

Missouri

Arkansas

How Missouri and Arkansas compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Missouri and Arkansas are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Missouri's and Arkansas' players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Missouri and Arkansas?

On a neutral field, SP+ has Missouri 14.6 points better (18th to 71st). PRIME also has Missouri ahead, by 10.4. Elo, which only sees results, also has Missouri ahead (24th to 65th).

MissouriArkansas
SP+ overall14.2 (18th)-0.4 (71st)
SP+ offense30.9 (42nd)27.7 (60th)
SP+ defense16.5 (11th)28.3 (85th)
SP+ special teams-0.2 (92nd)0.2 (42nd)
PRIME net10.1 (29th)-0.3 (72nd)
PRIME offense0.19 (62nd)-0.44 (70th)
PRIME defense8.58 (15th)0.57 (62nd)
PRIME SOS1.9 (26th)3.9 (11th)
PRIME SOR1.8 (22nd)0.1 (65th)
Elo1747 (24th)1515 (65th)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Missouri's offense ranks 46th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Arkansas defense it faces ranks 98th in EPA per play allowed. Arkansas' offense ranks 79th against Missouri's 25th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Missouri's offense against Arkansas' defense. The biggest edge on the board is Missouri's passing game: 27th in adjusted EPA per pass, against Arkansas' 84th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Arkansas' offense climbs from 106th to 79th in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.

MissouriArkansas
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.13 (46th)+0.09 (79th)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.26 (27th)+0.17 (83rd)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.06 (74th)+0.04 (95th)
Success rate (adjusted)39.0% (102nd)42.9% (55th)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)44.5% (112th)49.5% (32nd)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)29.4% (93rd)28.0% (115th)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.95 (39th)0.92 (103rd)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)2.81 (113th)2.88 (95th)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.27 (32nd)0.95 (122nd)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.04 (25th)+0.14 (98th)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.15 (45th)+0.22 (84th)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.01 (27th)+0.11 (111th)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)36.0% (9th)42.9% (87th)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.94 (75th)0.94 (70th)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)2.75 (17th)3.05 (97th)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)0.94 (15th)1.14 (75th)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Missouri or Arkansas?

Missouri is better throwing (24th in EPA per pass) than running (101st). Arkansas' pass defense ranks 92nd, so that's a mismatch. Arkansas is better throwing (83rd in EPA per pass) than running (121st). Missouri's pass defense ranks 44th, so the defense has the better of it. On third down, Arkansas has the edge: its offense ranks 56th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 118th.

MissouriArkansas
EPA per play+0.17 (55th)+0.05 (106th)
EPA per pass+0.39 (24th)+0.18 (83rd)
EPA per rush+0.03 (101st)−0.02 (121st)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.57 (39th)+0.51 (56th)
EPA per play allowed+0.01 (29th)+0.20 (117th)
EPA per pass allowed+0.09 (44th)+0.24 (92nd)
EPA per rush allowed−0.02 (38th)+0.23 (130th)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.59 (118th)+0.45 (86th)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Missouri or Arkansas?

Missouri outscores FBS opponents by 11.5 a game, and Arkansas is outscored by 5.7. Missouri's offense ranks 54th in scoring, and the Arkansas defense it faces ranks 96th in points allowed. Arkansas' offense ranks 114th against Missouri's 31st-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Missouri's offense against Arkansas' defense.

MissouriArkansas
Points scored31.1 (54th)21.0 (114th)
Points allowed19.6 (31st)26.7 (96th)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Missouri's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 29th in explosive play rate, and Arkansas' defense ranks 120th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch. Arkansas has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 70th, against a defense ranked 57th in 3rd down conversions allowed.

MissouriArkansas
Pass yards / game271.6 (27th)238.9 (60th)
Rush yards / game161.4 (76th)126.6 (120th)
Yards per play6.53 (42nd)5.11 (127th)
Yards per carry4.89 (87th)4.10 (126th)
Yards per attempt8.41 (40th)6.19 (116th)
Completion %62.4% (75th)54.8% (112th)
Success rate40.9% (95th)41.1% (91st)
Explosive play rate14.2% (29th)9.2% (125th)
3rd down conversion43.3% (51st)40.4% (70th)
Sack rate (taken)3.0% (18th)5.3% (66th)
INT rate (thrown)0.9% (16th)1.5% (36th)
SUPLEX53.3% (89th)48.4% (120th)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Missouri's defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 16th in SUPLEX allowed, and Arkansas' offense is bottom-20 in SUPLEX (120th). That's a mismatch.

MissouriArkansas
Pass yards allowed / game228.0 (99th)214.6 (73rd)
Rush yards allowed / game129.4 (39th)156.9 (78th)
Yards per play allowed5.43 (49th)6.91 (120th)
Yards per carry allowed4.40 (42nd)5.23 (94th)
Yards per attempt allowed6.73 (54th)9.51 (130th)
Success rate allowed37.3% (36th)47.6% (121st)
Explosive plays allowed12.8% (101st)14.4% (120th)
3rd downs allowed37.4% (57th)46.8% (124th)
Sack rate (generated)7.1% (49th)4.8% (103rd)
INT rate (generated)2.5% (67th)3.2% (44th)
SUPLEX allowed44.1% (16th)61.4% (116th)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

Missouri has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is big Uglies: defensive front, where Missouri ranks 21st and Arkansas 123rd.

MissouriArkansas
Big Uglies: offensive line49.3 (80th)51.6 (56th)
Big Uglies: defensive front57.2 (21st)40.6 (123rd)
Line yards per carry2.84 (105th)2.77 (112th)
Line yards allowed per carry2.55 (14th)3.14 (106th)
Second-level yards per carry0.90 (123rd)0.91 (120th)
Open-field yards per carry1.11 (78th)0.52 (132nd)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)20.4% (108th)16.3% (47th)
Stuff rate (defense)22.8% (22nd)14.6% (120th)
Power success (short yardage)77.8% (36th)81.5% (18th)
Power success allowed69.2% (58th)89.7% (136th)
Front-seven havoc allowed8.7% (57th)9.2% (72nd)
Front-seven havoc11.4% (29th)8.2% (103rd)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Missouri is +0.7 in turnover margin a game and Arkansas is +0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Missouri. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.

MissouriArkansas
Interceptions thrown / game0.29 (16th)0.57 (40th)
Fumbles lost / game0.29 (20th)0.57 (75th)
Giveaways / game0.57 (7th)1.14 (52nd)
Interceptions / game0.86 (45th)0.71 (66th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.43 (71st)0.57 (51st)
Takeaways / game1.29 (55th)1.29 (55th)
Turnover margin / game+0.7 (17th)+0.1 (62nd)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

Missouri has the more talented roster (19th in the 247Sports talent composite; Arkansas is 36th). Missouri also plays further above its talent: +5.1 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Arkansas' −5.6.

MissouriArkansas
Talent composite808.4 (19th)745.5 (36th)
Blue-chip ratio39.6% (18th)25.3% (33rd)
Players on roster111 (67th)118 (25th)
Rated by 247Sports91 (19th)83 (47th)
5-star players0 (37th)0 (37th)
4-star players36 (18th)21 (32nd)
3-star players51 (103rd)61 (66th)
Below 3-star4 (38th)1 (86th)
2026 transfers in30 (31st)43 (8th)
Transfer share33.0% (52nd)51.8% (18th)
SP+ vs. talent+5.1 (37th)-5.6 (102nd)
Returning production42.0% (62nd)14.5% (109th)
Returning passing production-2.3% (124th)18.7% (71st)
Returning rushing production77.5% (43rd)14.5% (100th)
Returning receiving production32.9% (76th)11.7% (120th)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)34 (34th)46 (46th)
Recruiting rank, last four classes27.0 (21st)32.8 (27th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Which roster costs more?

Missouri's roster is valued at $26.4M, Arkansas' at $23.4M. Missouri also plays better per dollar: +2.9 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −9.0 for Arkansas.

MissouriArkansas
Roster value$26.4M (21st)$23.4M (28th)
Roster cost per win$5.3M (32nd)$7.8M (57th)
Projected wins per $1M0.30 (30th)0.14 (68th)
SP+ vs. payroll+2.9 (23rd)-9.0 (63rd)

NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Missouri is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.0). Arkansas is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−0.9).

MissouriArkansas
RECEIPTS (total)+1.5 (30th)-0.5 (89th)
Schedule RECEIPTS-0.3 (105th)-0.9 (127th)
Roster RECEIPTS+1.0 (18th)+0.4 (44th)
Coach RECEIPTS+1.0 (28th)-0.5 (91st)
Luck RECEIPTS-0.1 (75th)+0.5 (36th)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Missouri at Arkansas: questions people ask

Missouri vs. Arkansas prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick Missouri, 75% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Missouri's best matchup is its early-down defense, 16th in SUPLEX allowed, against Arkansas' early-down offense at 120th.

Where can I watch Missouri vs. Arkansas, and what time is it?

Sat, Oct 31, 7:45 PM ET at Razorback Stadium. It's on SEC Network.

What's the projected score of Missouri vs. Arkansas?

SP+ projects Missouri 32–20. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Missouri at Arkansas?

DraftKings has Missouri −10, total 48.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Missouri vs. Arkansas series history?

Missouri leads 13–4. Last meeting: Missouri won 31–17 in 2025.

Who are the players to watch in Missouri vs. Arkansas?

Missouri: Austin Simmons (1,786 passing yards), Jamal Roberts (845 rushing yards) and Cayden Lee (670 receiving yards). Arkansas: KJ Jackson (1,478 passing yards), Braylen Russell (204 rushing yards) and Chris Marshall (601 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Missouri at Arkansas?

Missouri's is Austin Simmons (1,786 passing yards this season); Arkansas' is KJ Jackson (1,478 passing yards this season).

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Missouri and Arkansas: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.