This week's picks

Sources and Methods

College Football Charts
Data updatedOct 30, 2026

About

Sources and methods

Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.

Where the data comes from

SourceWhat we useHow often
CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR filesSchedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rostersUsually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games
DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com)The line and total on each game, and where each openedEvery morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday
Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com)The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams.Preseason
SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update)Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratingsWeekly
PRIME (primecfb.com)Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of recordWeekly
AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com)Rankings and points, including others receiving votesSunday afternoons
AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI)Rankings and points, including others receiving votesSundays
247SportsTeam talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankingsPreseason
The NIL StandardEstimated NIL roster valuesPreseason
us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries)State shapes for the mapOnce

How we turn it into projections

  • Projected score. Each team's SP+ offense, plus how far the opponent's SP+ defense is from average, plus special teams. The home team gets half of a 2.5-point home edge added and the visitor half subtracted.
  • Win chance. The projected margin turned into a probability, assuming games usually land within about 14 points of the projection. A 0-point margin is 50%; 14 points is about 84%.
  • The three ratings. SP+ is built from every play this season. PRIME is a possession-efficiency rating. Elo uses only final scores and carries over from year to year, with 55 Elo points of home edge.
  • The numbers' pick. The team at least two of the three ratings favor, with our confidence the average of their three win chances for that team. On the game cards, a pick is a lock when all three favor the same team and the average win chance is 80% or more, a coin flip when it's under 55%, and a lean otherwise. Injuries can drop the tier: each key player out counts by what he does for his team (a starting quarterback is 2 points, the feature back or top receiver half a point, doubtful counts half), the other side's injuries offset, and 1 point drops a tier, 2 points two. The game page shows it as an injury alert. Nobody overrides the numbers' pick.
  • CFB Charts Top 25. SP+, PRIME and strength of record, each converted to a common scale and averaged.
  • Playoff picture. The 2026-27 rules: automatic bids for the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions (the current conference leader stands in until the title games) and for the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top 12. The rest are at-large teams by the chosen rating, and all 12 are seeded straight by that rating, so the top four get the byes. Once the committee's rankings are out (first release Tuesday, Nov. 3), they become the default ranking.
  • Missing data. When a team's play-by-play is clearly incomplete (fewer than 45 offensive plays a game), we hide its offense stats instead of showing bad numbers.

Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.

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