This week's picks

Florida vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick, Week 9 2026

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Data updatedOct 31, 2026
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Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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Florida vs. Georgia

Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

The numbers say: Georgia, 89% to win.

The game

RivalryWorld's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party
KickoffSat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET
TVABC
WhereMercedes-Benz Stadium (neutral site)
WeatherIndoors
LineGeorgia −12.5, total 56.5
Line movementTotal opened 53.5, up 3.
SeriesGeorgia leads 58–44–2
Last meetingGeorgia 24–20 in 2025

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+Georgia by 16.588%59
PRIMEGeorgia by 15.587%
EloGeorgia90%
The lineGeorgia −12.556.5, opened 53.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Fri, Oct 30, 7:43 PM ET.

Who wins, Florida or Georgia?

The numbers say: Georgia. 88% chance to win

Which matchups decide Florida vs. Georgia?

All three ratings favor Georgia, by 15.5 to 16.5 points, and it isn't close. Georgia's best matchup is its 3rd down offense, 6th in 3rd down conversion, against Florida's 3rd down defense at 126th. Florida's way back in is its ball security, 56th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Georgia's takeaway defense at 92nd. We left out the edges built on Chauncey Bowens, who's out.

Florida with the ball

Georgia with the ball

Who's out for Florida and Georgia?

Florida

Georgia

How Florida and Georgia compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Florida and Georgia are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Florida's and Georgia's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Florida and Georgia?

On a neutral field, SP+ has Georgia 16.5 points better (2nd to 31st). PRIME also has Georgia ahead, by 15.5. Elo, which only sees results, also has Georgia ahead (4th to 38th).

FloridaGeorgia
SP+ overall10.6 (31st)27.1 (2nd)
SP+ offense33.5 (24th)39.6 (2nd)
SP+ defense23.5 (50th)12.9 (4th)
SP+ special teams0.6 (2nd)0.4 (11th)
PRIME net10.1 (29th)25.6 (2nd)
PRIME offense10.27 (14th)14.16 (2nd)
PRIME defense-0.97 (78th)10.73 (7th)
PRIME SOS4.2 (10th)-1.2 (57th)
PRIME SOR2.2 (18th)2.3 (17th)
Elo1643 (38th)2023 (4th)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Florida's offense ranks 17th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Georgia defense it faces ranks 43rd in EPA per play allowed. Georgia's offense ranks 4th against Florida's 66th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face. The biggest edge on the board is Georgia's passing game: 6th in adjusted EPA per pass, against Florida's 104th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.

FloridaGeorgia
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.20 (17th)+0.24 (4th)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.29 (20th)+0.35 (6th)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.10 (42nd)+0.12 (26th)
Success rate (adjusted)46.1% (23rd)48.9% (7th)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)49.9% (28th)51.5% (13th)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)31.2% (54th)33.4% (17th)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.93 (76th)0.93 (86th)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)2.93 (81st)3.11 (22nd)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.20 (44th)1.43 (9th)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.10 (66th)+0.06 (43rd)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.25 (104th)+0.16 (50th)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.02 (33rd)+0.00 (21st)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)42.4% (78th)38.1% (23rd)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.94 (84th)0.92 (35th)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)2.82 (30th)2.92 (58th)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)1.19 (90th)1.21 (93rd)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Florida or Georgia?

Florida is better throwing (20th in EPA per pass) than running (43rd). Georgia's pass defense ranks 46th, so that's an edge. Georgia is about as good throwing (3rd in EPA per pass) as running (16th). On third down, Georgia has the edge: its offense ranks 8th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 130th.

FloridaGeorgia
EPA per play+0.25 (23rd)+0.33 (6th)
EPA per pass+0.41 (20th)+0.53 (3rd)
EPA per rush+0.15 (43rd)+0.22 (16th)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.62 (28th)+0.79 (8th)
EPA per play allowed+0.11 (84th)0.00 (24th)
EPA per pass allowed+0.28 (102nd)+0.11 (46th)
EPA per rush allowed+0.01 (51st)−0.13 (7th)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.67 (130th)+0.24 (23rd)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Florida or Georgia?

Florida outscores FBS opponents by 11.3 a game, and Georgia by 27.1. Florida's offense ranks 9th in scoring, and the Georgia defense it faces ranks 16th in points allowed. Georgia's offense ranks 3rd against Florida's 106th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Georgia's offense against Florida's defense.

FloridaGeorgia
Points scored39.6 (9th)43.0 (3rd)
Points allowed28.3 (106th)15.9 (16th)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Florida has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 53rd, against a defense ranked 65th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Georgia's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 6th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Florida's defense ranks 126th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch.

FloridaGeorgia
Pass yards / game267.0 (34th)269.9 (30th)
Rush yards / game203.3 (30th)204.6 (28th)
Yards per play6.43 (47th)7.98 (1st)
Yards per carry5.43 (49th)6.85 (2nd)
Yards per attempt7.79 (64th)9.54 (11th)
Completion %62.9% (70th)70.7% (27th)
Success rate44.3% (62nd)52.6% (5th)
Explosive play rate12.9% (48th)17.5% (3rd)
3rd down conversion42.9% (53rd)53.2% (6th)
Sack rate (taken)4.0% (31st)4.3% (39th)
INT rate (thrown)2.1% (56th)2.0% (54th)
SUPLEX56.4% (71st)71.1% (2nd)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Florida's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 14th in sack rate, and Georgia's offense is above average at avoiding sacks (39th). Georgia's defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 4th in SUPLEX allowed, and Florida's offense is middle of the pack in SUPLEX (71st). That's a mismatch.

FloridaGeorgia
Pass yards allowed / game260.4 (123rd)193.6 (38th)
Rush yards allowed / game135.6 (50th)117.3 (24th)
Yards per play allowed6.40 (104th)4.96 (16th)
Yards per carry allowed4.94 (78th)4.15 (27th)
Yards per attempt allowed8.32 (103rd)6.10 (26th)
Success rate allowed45.5% (107th)36.7% (28th)
Explosive plays allowed10.4% (54th)8.7% (12th)
3rd downs allowed46.9% (126th)38.1% (65th)
Sack rate (generated)9.1% (14th)7.9% (31st)
INT rate (generated)1.8% (90th)1.8% (92nd)
SUPLEX allowed57.4% (94th)39.4% (4th)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

Georgia has the better number in 9 of 12. The biggest gap is line yards per carry, where Georgia ranks 11th and Florida 117th.

FloridaGeorgia
Big Uglies: offensive line52.5 (50th)60.0 (9th)
Big Uglies: defensive front54.2 (35th)52.7 (47th)
Line yards per carry2.73 (117th)3.48 (11th)
Line yards allowed per carry2.90 (68th)2.59 (20th)
Second-level yards per carry0.98 (103rd)1.30 (12th)
Open-field yards per carry1.34 (52nd)1.83 (14th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)20.3% (104th)12.2% (9th)
Stuff rate (defense)15.7% (109th)17.1% (88th)
Power success (short yardage)83.8% (13th)82.1% (17th)
Power success allowed77.3% (107th)68.8% (56th)
Front-seven havoc allowed8.0% (39th)7.3% (26th)
Front-seven havoc12.9% (11th)11.7% (26th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Neither team has a real turnover edge: Florida is +0.3 a game and Georgia +0.4. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Georgia's takeaways lean on them (1.0 of 1.6 a game).

FloridaGeorgia
Interceptions thrown / game0.71 (61st)0.57 (40th)
Fumbles lost / game0.29 (20th)0.57 (74th)
Giveaways / game1.00 (36th)1.14 (52nd)
Interceptions / game0.57 (85th)0.57 (85th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.71 (24th)1.00 (5th)
Takeaways / game1.29 (56th)1.57 (28th)
Turnover margin / game+0.3 (50th)+0.4 (35th)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

Georgia has the more talented roster (1st in the 247Sports talent composite; Florida is 10th). Georgia also plays further above its talent: +5.7 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Florida's −3.7.

FloridaGeorgia
Talent composite891.1 (10th)1003.7 (1st)
Blue-chip ratio60.2% (9th)78.1% (1st)
Players on roster117 (29th)125 (8th)
Rated by 247Sports83 (47th)105 (1st)
5-star players3 (17th)13 (2nd)
4-star players47 (6th)69 (1st)
3-star players33 (128th)23 (134th)
Below 3-star0 (113th)0 (113th)
2026 transfers in29 (34th)9 (130th)
Transfer share34.9% (46th)8.6% (131st)
SP+ vs. talent-3.7 (91st)+5.7 (35th)
Returning production69.1% (23rd)68.7% (25th)
Returning passing production94.3% (32nd)99.7% (18th)
Returning rushing production89.3% (27th)99.3% (22nd)
Returning receiving production51.5% (43rd)34.7% (70th)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)17 (17th)6 (6th)
Recruiting rank, last four classes12.5 (12th)2.8 (2nd)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Which roster costs more?

Georgia's roster is valued at $31.3M, Florida's at $27.3M. Georgia also plays better per dollar: +12.2 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −1.4 for Florida.

FloridaGeorgia
Roster value$27.3M (19th)$31.3M (16th)
Roster cost per win$5.5M (35th)$5.2M (30th)
Projected wins per $1M0.24 (49th)0.34 (20th)
SP+ vs. payroll-1.4 (40th)+12.2 (1st)

NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Florida is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.4). Georgia is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.8). Florida's record is running 1.1 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.

FloridaGeorgia
RECEIPTS (total)+1.5 (30th)+2.5 (8th)
Schedule RECEIPTS-0.9 (126th)+0.2 (81st)
Roster RECEIPTS+1.4 (11th)+1.8 (6th)
Coach RECEIPTS-0.1 (70th)+0.9 (30th)
Luck RECEIPTS+1.1 (11th)-0.4 (93rd)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Florida vs. Georgia: questions people ask

Florida vs. Georgia prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick Georgia, 88% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Georgia's best matchup is its 3rd down offense, 6th in 3rd down conversion, against Florida's 3rd down defense at 126th.

Where can I watch Florida vs. Georgia, and what time is it?

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. It's on ABC.

What's the projected score of Florida vs. Georgia?

SP+ projects Georgia 38–21. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Florida vs. Georgia?

DraftKings has Georgia −12.5, total 56.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Florida vs. Georgia series history?

Georgia leads 58–44–2. Last meeting: Georgia won 24–20 in 2025.

Who are the players to watch in Florida vs. Georgia?

Florida: Aaron Philo (1,410 passing yards), Jadan Baugh (740 rushing yards) and Dallas Wilson (403 receiving yards). Georgia: Gunner Stockton (1,574 passing yards), Dwight Phillips Jr. (348 rushing yards) and Craig Dandridge (310 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Florida vs. Georgia?

Florida's is Aaron Philo (1,410 passing yards this season); Georgia's is Gunner Stockton (1,574 passing yards this season).

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Florida and Georgia: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.