This week's picks

Temple vs. East Carolina Prediction and Pick, Week 9 2026

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Data updatedOct 31, 2026
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Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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Temple at East Carolina

Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET, Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.

The numbers say: East Carolina, 64% to win.

The game

KickoffSat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET
TVESPN+
WhereDowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Weather64°, cloudy, wind 8 mph
LineEast Carolina −4.5, total 50.5
Line movementTotal opened 49.5, up 1.
SeriesEast Carolina leads 12–10
Last meetingEast Carolina 45–14 in 2025

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+East Carolina by 6.267%56
PRIMEEast Carolina by 0.050%
EloEast Carolina75%
The lineEast Carolina −4.550.5, opened 49.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Fri, Oct 30, 7:43 PM ET.

Who wins, Temple or East Carolina?

The numbers say: East Carolina. 64% chance to win

Which matchups decide Temple vs. East Carolina?

SP+ and Elo take East Carolina, but PRIME has Temple by 0.0. East Carolina's best matchup is its pass rush, 9th in sack rate, against Temple's pass protection at 120th. Temple's way back in is its big-play offense, 12th in explosive play rate, against East Carolina's big-play defense at 103rd.

Temple with the ball

East Carolina with the ball

Who's out for Temple and East Carolina?

Temple

East Carolina

How Temple and East Carolina compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Temple and East Carolina are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Temple's and East Carolina's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Temple and East Carolina?

On a neutral field, SP+ has East Carolina 3.7 points better (91st to 99th). PRIME has Temple by 2.5 instead. The two ratings split on Temple's offense: 79th in SP+, 52nd in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, also has East Carolina ahead (83rd to 108th).

TempleEast Carolina
SP+ overall-7.7 (99th)-4.0 (91st)
SP+ offense25.5 (79th)22.2 (105th)
SP+ defense33.3 (117th)26.4 (70th)
SP+ special teams0.1 (54th)0.2 (42nd)
PRIME net-6.6 (96th)-9.1 (105th)
PRIME offense1.35 (52nd)-7.67 (121st)
PRIME defense-7.82 (127th)-0.11 (69th)
PRIME SOS-6.5 (106th)-4.5 (90th)
PRIME SOR-2.6 (127th)-1.3 (107th)
Elo1298 (108th)1433 (83rd)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Temple's offense ranks 33rd in adjusted EPA per play, and the East Carolina defense it faces ranks 59th in EPA per play allowed. East Carolina's offense ranks 112th against Temple's 123rd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Temple's offense against East Carolina's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Temple's big plays: 42nd in adjusted explosiveness, against East Carolina's 81st-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and East Carolina's defense falls from 33rd to 59th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.

TempleEast Carolina
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.16 (33rd)+0.04 (112th)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.20 (64th)+0.11 (122nd)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.13 (17th)+0.03 (99th)
Success rate (adjusted)41.6% (65th)36.2% (128th)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)47.3% (56th)42.8% (126th)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)30.0% (79th)27.4% (124th)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.95 (42nd)0.94 (70th)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)3.22 (5th)2.93 (82nd)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.32 (18th)1.14 (64th)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.20 (123rd)+0.09 (59th)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.29 (123rd)+0.15 (47th)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.10 (98th)+0.05 (55th)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)47.2% (129th)39.4% (33rd)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.93 (55th)0.94 (81st)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)3.00 (81st)2.69 (8th)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)1.10 (58th)0.99 (31st)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Temple or East Carolina?

Temple is better running (31st in EPA per rush) than throwing (52nd). East Carolina's run defense ranks 54th. East Carolina is better throwing (87th in EPA per pass) than running (103rd). Temple's pass defense ranks 112th, so that's an edge. On third down, East Carolina has the edge: its offense ranks 43rd in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 132nd.

TempleEast Carolina
EPA per play+0.21 (35th)+0.08 (96th)
EPA per pass+0.26 (52nd)+0.17 (87th)
EPA per rush+0.18 (31st)+0.02 (103rd)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.52 (50th)+0.55 (43rd)
EPA per play allowed+0.21 (118th)+0.02 (33rd)
EPA per pass allowed+0.33 (112th)+0.07 (35th)
EPA per rush allowed+0.12 (94th)+0.02 (54th)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.68 (132nd)+0.19 (16th)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Temple or East Carolina?

Temple is outscored by 2.3 a game, and East Carolina is outscored by 1.3. Temple's offense ranks 91st in scoring, and the East Carolina defense it faces ranks 93rd in points allowed. East Carolina's offense ranks 94th against Temple's 104th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.

TempleEast Carolina
Points scored25.7 (91st)25.0 (94th)
Points allowed28.0 (104th)26.3 (93rd)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Temple's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 12th in explosive play rate, and East Carolina's defense ranks 103rd in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch. East Carolina has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 112th, against a defense ranked 134th in 3rd down conversions allowed.

TempleEast Carolina
Pass yards / game186.4 (110th)210.8 (90th)
Rush yards / game212.4 (21st)196.2 (35th)
Yards per play7.07 (18th)5.54 (114th)
Yards per carry6.14 (15th)5.47 (46th)
Yards per attempt9.39 (16th)5.91 (125th)
Completion %65.5% (55th)53.7% (114th)
Success rate45.3% (53rd)37.6% (121st)
Explosive play rate16.0% (12th)11.1% (98th)
3rd down conversion46.3% (30th)33.3% (112th)
Sack rate (taken)9.2% (120th)5.3% (67th)
INT rate (thrown)0.7% (11th)2.3% (70th)
SUPLEX62.1% (26th)49.3% (114th)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Temple's defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 77th in SUPLEX allowed, and East Carolina's offense is bottom-40 in SUPLEX (114th). East Carolina's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 9th in sack rate, and Temple's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (120th). That's a mismatch.

TempleEast Carolina
Pass yards allowed / game215.7 (77th)200.5 (48th)
Rush yards allowed / game157.7 (79th)147.3 (66th)
Yards per play allowed6.21 (92nd)5.31 (37th)
Yards per carry allowed4.72 (65th)3.95 (18th)
Yards per attempt allowed8.44 (109th)7.91 (88th)
Success rate allowed46.8% (116th)35.6% (18th)
Explosive plays allowed13.5% (110th)13.0% (103rd)
3rd downs allowed51.2% (134th)31.8% (20th)
Sack rate (generated)4.3% (114th)10.1% (9th)
INT rate (generated)1.1% (121st)3.3% (37th)
SUPLEX allowed54.7% (77th)47.3% (27th)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

They split these evenly, 6 each. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc, where East Carolina ranks 3rd and Temple 136th.

TempleEast Carolina
Big Uglies: offensive line52.5 (50th)46.8 (96th)
Big Uglies: defensive front42.1 (120th)68.7 (4th)
Line yards per carry3.44 (14th)2.90 (96th)
Line yards allowed per carry2.88 (66th)2.29 (6th)
Second-level yards per carry1.30 (11th)1.03 (90th)
Open-field yards per carry1.75 (18th)1.45 (40th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)16.8% (58th)18.3% (78th)
Stuff rate (defense)16.2% (102nd)29.5% (4th)
Power success (short yardage)63.6% (117th)66.7% (100th)
Power success allowed79.5% (116th)58.8% (13th)
Front-seven havoc allowed7.9% (35th)12.4% (129th)
Front-seven havoc6.2% (136th)15.3% (3rd)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Temple is 0.0 in turnover margin a game and East Carolina is −0.6. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Temple. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.

TempleEast Carolina
Interceptions thrown / game0.14 (5th)0.86 (84th)
Fumbles lost / game0.71 (99th)1.00 (127th)
Giveaways / game0.86 (25th)1.86 (126th)
Interceptions / game0.29 (119th)0.71 (66th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.57 (51st)0.57 (51st)
Takeaways / game0.86 (107th)1.29 (56th)
Turnover margin / game0.0 (67th)-0.6 (108th)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

Temple has the more talented roster (80th in the 247Sports talent composite; East Carolina is 82nd). But East Carolina plays further above its talent: −1.6 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Temple's −5.7.

TempleEast Carolina
Talent composite631.1 (80th)623.8 (82nd)
Blue-chip ratio6.3% (88th)4.1% (102nd)
Players on roster119 (20th)119 (20th)
Rated by 247Sports79 (66th)73 (87th)
5-star players0 (37th)0 (37th)
4-star players5 (81st)3 (94th)
3-star players69 (33rd)69 (33rd)
Below 3-star5 (29th)1 (86th)
2026 transfers in23 (56th)24 (53rd)
Transfer share29.1% (68th)32.9% (53rd)
SP+ vs. talent-5.7 (104th)-1.6 (74th)
Returning production37.0% (74th)13.6% (116th)
Returning passing production0.0% (109th)0.0% (109th)
Returning rushing production22.9% (90th)26.8% (85th)
Returning receiving production69.1% (19th)19.5% (104th)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)68 (68th)94 (94th)
Recruiting rank, last four classes97.8 (99th)77.2 (73rd)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Temple is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.1). East Carolina is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.0). Temple's record is 1.1 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.

TempleEast Carolina
RECEIPTS (total)-1.5 (115th)-0.5 (89th)
Schedule RECEIPTS+0.7 (56th)+1.0 (44th)
Roster RECEIPTS-0.2 (83rd)-0.3 (88th)
Coach RECEIPTS-0.9 (105th)-0.3 (81st)
Luck RECEIPTS-1.1 (125th)-0.9 (116th)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Temple at East Carolina: questions people ask

Temple vs. East Carolina prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick East Carolina, 64% chance to win. SP+ and Elo agree; PRIME has Temple. East Carolina's best matchup is its pass rush, 9th in sack rate, against Temple's pass protection at 120th.

Where can I watch Temple vs. East Carolina, and what time is it?

Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. It's on ESPN+.

What's the projected score of Temple vs. East Carolina?

SP+ projects East Carolina 31–25. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Temple at East Carolina?

DraftKings has East Carolina −4.5, total 50.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Temple vs. East Carolina series history?

East Carolina leads 12–10. Last meeting: East Carolina won 45–14 in 2025.

Who are the players to watch in Temple vs. East Carolina?

Temple: Ajani Sheppard (1,147 passing yards), Keveun Mason (509 rushing yards) and Colin Chase (308 receiving yards). East Carolina: Emory Williams (751 passing yards), TJ Engleman (582 rushing yards) and Nathaniel Joseph (309 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Temple at East Carolina?

Temple's is Ajani Sheppard (1,147 passing yards this season); East Carolina's is Emory Williams (751 passing yards this season).

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Temple and East Carolina: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.