This week's picks

Army vs. Memphis Prediction and Pick, Week 9 2026

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Data updatedOct 31, 2026
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Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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Army at Memphis

Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM ET, Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.

The numbers say: Memphis, 67% to win.

The game

KickoffSat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM ET
TVESPNU
WhereSimmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Weather69°, overcast, wind 6 mph
LineMemphis −6, total 59.5
Line movementTotal opened 56.5, up 3.
SeriesMemphis leads 4–1
Last meetingMemphis 38–10 in 2002

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+Memphis by 8.573%68
PRIMEMemphis by 4.964%
EloMemphis65%
The lineMemphis −659.5, opened 56.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Fri, Oct 30, 7:43 PM ET.

Who wins, Army or Memphis?

The numbers say: Memphis. 67% chance to win

Which matchups decide Army vs. Memphis?

All three ratings favor Memphis, by 4.9 to 8.5 points. Memphis' best matchup is its offense, 10th in yards per play, against Army's defense at 133rd. Army's way back in is its run game, 4th in yards per carry, against Memphis' run defense at 120th.

Army with the ball

Memphis with the ball

Who's out for Army and Memphis?

Army

Memphis

How Army and Memphis compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Army and Memphis are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Army's and Memphis' players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Army and Memphis?

On a neutral field, SP+ has Memphis 6.0 points better (46th to 66th). PRIME also has Memphis ahead, by 2.4. Elo, which only sees results, also has Memphis ahead (43rd to 56th).

ArmyMemphis
SP+ overall1.0 (66th)7.0 (46th)
SP+ offense30.2 (43rd)33.8 (21st)
SP+ defense29.5 (96th)26.6 (72nd)
SP+ special teams0.3 (28th)-0.1 (80th)
PRIME net-0.9 (74th)1.5 (62nd)
PRIME offense4.92 (34th)3.77 (39th)
PRIME defense-7.62 (125th)-0.85 (76th)
PRIME SOS-6.7 (108th)-7.1 (115th)
PRIME SOR0.4 (54th)0.7 (49th)
Elo1571 (56th)1622 (43rd)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Army's offense ranks 14th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Memphis defense it faces ranks 57th in EPA per play allowed. Memphis' offense ranks 32nd against Army's 125th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face. The biggest edge on the board is Memphis' offensive line in the run game: 13th in adjusted line yards per carry, against Army's 128th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.

ArmyMemphis
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.21 (14th)+0.17 (32nd)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.20 (68th)+0.31 (13th)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.21 (1st)+0.10 (45th)
Success rate (adjusted)46.9% (17th)45.9% (26th)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)51.9% (11th)50.8% (17th)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)30.5% (68th)31.3% (51st)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.97 (21st)0.92 (104th)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)3.19 (12th)3.17 (13th)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.35 (15th)1.27 (31st)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.20 (125th)+0.09 (57th)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.29 (125th)+0.12 (24th)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.16 (129th)+0.10 (97th)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)45.9% (116th)40.6% (50th)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.99 (132nd)0.97 (117th)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)3.20 (128th)2.98 (73rd)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)1.39 (128th)1.38 (125th)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Army or Memphis?

Army is better running (1st in EPA per rush) than throwing (96th). Memphis' run defense ranks 112th, so that's a mismatch. Memphis is better throwing (20th in EPA per pass) than running (55th). Army's pass defense ranks 112th, so that's a mismatch. On third down, Memphis has the edge: its offense ranks 69th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 126th.

ArmyMemphis
EPA per play+0.32 (7th)+0.20 (40th)
EPA per pass+0.12 (96th)+0.41 (20th)
EPA per rush+0.37 (1st)+0.13 (55th)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.65 (22nd)+0.46 (69th)
EPA per play allowed+0.24 (124th)+0.08 (63rd)
EPA per pass allowed+0.33 (112th)+0.04 (21st)
EPA per rush allowed+0.27 (132nd)+0.16 (112th)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.62 (126th)+0.24 (23rd)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Army or Memphis?

Army outscores FBS opponents by 13.2 a game, and Memphis by 12.3. Army's offense ranks 32nd in scoring, and the Memphis defense it faces ranks 66th in points allowed. Memphis' offense ranks 21st against Army's 54th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face.

ArmyMemphis
Points scored35.3 (32nd)36.1 (21st)
Points allowed22.1 (54th)23.8 (66th)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Army's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 4th in yards per carry, and Memphis' defense ranks 120th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch. Memphis' best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 10th in explosive play rate, and Army's defense ranks 124th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch.

ArmyMemphis
Pass yards / game74.9 (133rd)284.3 (20th)
Rush yards / game344.4 (1st)240.9 (9th)
Yards per play6.17 (70th)7.42 (10th)
Yards per carry6.50 (4th)6.22 (12th)
Yards per attempt5.14 (131st)9.44 (13th)
Completion %43.1% (132nd)65.1% (58th)
Success rate48.9% (21st)48.9% (22nd)
Explosive play rate12.6% (58th)16.4% (10th)
3rd down conversion46.2% (32nd)40.8% (66th)
Sack rate (taken)2.9% (14th)5.9% (79th)
INT rate (thrown)1.0% (18th)2.9% (95th)
SUPLEX57.3% (59th)66.5% (13th)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Neither defense ranks 25 spots ahead of the offense it faces in any of these, so expect both offenses to look like themselves.

ArmyMemphis
Pass yards allowed / game204.6 (56th)212.9 (70th)
Rush yards allowed / game150.0 (72nd)189.8 (114th)
Yards per play allowed7.37 (133rd)6.43 (106th)
Yards per carry allowed5.90 (125th)5.73 (120th)
Yards per attempt allowed9.48 (128th)7.85 (85th)
Success rate allowed47.8% (122nd)38.9% (50th)
Explosive plays allowed14.5% (124th)14.0% (116th)
3rd downs allowed49.2% (131st)32.4% (25th)
Sack rate (generated)5.0% (95th)8.1% (27th)
INT rate (generated)2.0% (85th)4.2% (15th)
SUPLEX allowed62.9% (124th)54.0% (68th)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

They split these evenly, 6 each. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc, where Memphis ranks 25th and Army 132nd.

ArmyMemphis
Big Uglies: offensive line65.1 (2nd)57.3 (21st)
Big Uglies: defensive front37.2 (132nd)48.5 (81st)
Line yards per carry3.47 (12th)3.50 (9th)
Line yards allowed per carry3.29 (123rd)3.15 (109th)
Second-level yards per carry1.17 (41st)1.32 (8th)
Open-field yards per carry1.92 (9th)1.76 (16th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)11.1% (6th)14.2% (24th)
Stuff rate (defense)16.4% (100th)14.7% (119th)
Power success (short yardage)85.4% (6th)75.0% (53rd)
Power success allowed94.1% (138th)82.1% (124th)
Front-seven havoc allowed4.9% (5th)7.9% (35th)
Front-seven havoc6.6% (132nd)11.8% (25th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Neither team has a real turnover edge: Army is +0.4 a game and Memphis +0.3. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Memphis' takeaways lean on them (1.0 of 1.7 a game).

ArmyMemphis
Interceptions thrown / game0.14 (5th)0.71 (61st)
Fumbles lost / game0.14 (3rd)0.71 (99th)
Giveaways / game0.29 (1st)1.43 (88th)
Interceptions / game0.43 (105th)0.71 (66th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.29 (94th)1.00 (5th)
Takeaways / game0.71 (118th)1.71 (16th)
Turnover margin / game+0.4 (32nd)+0.3 (50th)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

Memphis has the more talented roster (67th in the 247Sports talent composite; Army is 136th). But Army plays further above its talent: +23.5 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Memphis' +6.5.

ArmyMemphis
Talent composite303.8 (136th)670.3 (67th)
Blue-chip ratio0.0% (126th)10.3% (69th)
Players on roster196 (2nd)107 (94th)
Rated by 247Sports33 (136th)78 (70th)
5-star players0 (37th)0 (37th)
4-star players0 (126th)8 (62nd)
3-star players19 (137th)69 (33rd)
Below 3-star14 (2nd)1 (86th)
2026 transfers in— ()53 (3rd)
Transfer share— ()67.9% (5th)
SP+ vs. talent+23.5 (3rd)+6.5 (32nd)
Returning production80.2% (12th)5.6% (127th)
Returning passing production62.6% (62nd)1.7% (107th)
Returning rushing production88.6% (28th)0.0% (113th)
Returning receiving production83.1% (10th)11.1% (123rd)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)181 (138th)72 (72nd)
Recruiting rank, last four classes145.2 (137th)65.0 (68th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Army is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+3.2). Memphis is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.6).

ArmyMemphis
RECEIPTS (total)+1.5 (30th)+2.0 (20th)
Schedule RECEIPTS+1.2 (38th)+1.6 (14th)
Roster RECEIPTS-3.2 (136th)-0.0 (71st)
Coach RECEIPTS+3.2 (1st)+0.9 (31st)
Luck RECEIPTS+0.3 (52nd)-0.4 (95th)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Army at Memphis: questions people ask

Army vs. Memphis prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick Memphis, 67% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Memphis' best matchup is its offense, 10th in yards per play, against Army's defense at 133rd.

Where can I watch Army vs. Memphis, and what time is it?

Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM ET at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. It's on ESPNU.

What's the projected score of Army vs. Memphis?

SP+ projects Memphis 39–30. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Army at Memphis?

DraftKings has Memphis −6, total 59.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Army vs. Memphis series history?

Memphis leads 4–1. Last meeting: Memphis won 38–10 in 2002.

Who are the players to watch in Army vs. Memphis?

Army: Cale Hellums (422 passing yards), Godspower Nwawuihe (350 rushing yards) and Bradyn Anderson (163 receiving yards). Memphis: Marcus Stokes (2,165 passing yards), Jaylin Carter (831 rushing yards) and Braylon Burnside (430 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Army at Memphis?

Army's is Cale Hellums (422 passing yards this season); Memphis' is Marcus Stokes (2,165 passing yards this season).

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Army and Memphis: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.