This week's picks

Kansas State vs. Colorado Prediction and Pick, Week 9 2026

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Data updatedOct 31, 2026
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Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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Kansas State at Colorado

Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 2:00 PM ET, Folsom Field.

The numbers say: Kansas State, 72% to win.

The game

KickoffSat, Oct 31, 2:00 PM ET
TVTNT
WhereFolsom Field
Weather55°, cloudy, wind 5 mph
LineColorado −3, total 46.5
Line movementOpened Kansas State −3.5; moved 6.5 points toward Colorado. Total opened 48.5, down 2.
SeriesColorado leads 45–22–1
Last meetingKansas State 24–14 in 2025
Kansas State injuriesJohnson (QB), out; Jacob Knuth (QB), doubtful
Colorado injuriesJulian Lewis (QB), out

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+Kansas State by 10.678%52
PRIMEKansas State by 1.755%
EloKansas State83%
The lineColorado −3, opened Kansas State −3.546.5, opened 48.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Fri, Oct 30, 7:43 PM ET.

Who wins, Kansas State or Colorado?

The numbers say: Kansas State. 72% chance to win

Which matchups decide Kansas State vs. Colorado?

All three ratings favor Kansas State, by 1.7 to 10.6 points. Kansas State's best matchup is its early-down defense, 45th in SUPLEX allowed, against Colorado's early-down offense at 116th. Colorado's way back in is its run-stopping front, 15th in line yards allowed per carry, against Kansas State's offensive line at 60th. We left out the edges built on Johnson and Lewis, who are out.

Kansas State with the ball

Colorado with the ball

Who's out for Kansas State and Colorado?

Kansas State

Colorado

How Kansas State and Colorado compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Kansas State and Colorado are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Kansas State's and Colorado's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Kansas State and Colorado?

On a neutral field, SP+ has Kansas State 13.1 points better (39th to 93rd). PRIME also has Kansas State ahead, by 4.2. Elo, which only sees results, also has Kansas State ahead (49th to 112th).

Kansas StateColorado
SP+ overall8.8 (39th)-4.3 (93rd)
SP+ offense31.4 (40th)22.7 (103rd)
SP+ defense23.0 (45th)26.5 (71st)
SP+ special teams0.4 (11th)-0.6 (131st)
PRIME net4.6 (46th)0.4 (67th)
PRIME offense2.68 (41st)-3.42 (92nd)
PRIME defense1.21 (57th)4.55 (31st)
PRIME SOS-2.7 (72nd)4.9 (9th)
PRIME SOR0.0 (70th)-0.7 (89th)
Elo1601 (49th)1265 (112th)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Kansas State's offense ranks 61st in adjusted EPA per play, and the Colorado defense it faces ranks 36th in EPA per play allowed. Colorado's offense ranks 121st against Kansas State's 87th-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face. The biggest edge on the board is Kansas State's backs in the open field: 6th in adjusted open-field yards per carry, against Colorado's 31st-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Colorado's defense climbs from 56th to 36th in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.

Kansas StateColorado
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.12 (61st)+0.02 (121st)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.15 (97th)+0.14 (100th)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.10 (43rd)−0.04 (132nd)
Success rate (adjusted)43.7% (43rd)40.2% (84th)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)47.5% (52nd)45.0% (103rd)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)32.5% (26th)29.7% (88th)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.94 (71st)0.90 (129th)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)2.98 (60th)2.85 (104th)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.47 (6th)0.98 (115th)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.13 (87th)+0.05 (36th)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.19 (70th)+0.22 (82nd)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.11 (112th)−0.01 (15th)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)38.5% (26th)37.1% (19th)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)1.00 (137th)0.90 (14th)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)3.02 (88th)2.73 (15th)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)1.28 (103rd)0.99 (31st)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Kansas State or Colorado?

Kansas State is better running (43rd in EPA per rush) than throwing (82nd). Colorado's run defense ranks 21st. Colorado is better throwing (82nd in EPA per pass) than running (129th). Kansas State's pass defense ranks 51st, so the defense has the better of it. On third down, Kansas State has the edge: its offense ranks 18th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 57th.

Kansas StateColorado
EPA per play+0.16 (57th)+0.02 (118th)
EPA per pass+0.18 (82nd)+0.18 (82nd)
EPA per rush+0.15 (43rd)−0.10 (129th)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.66 (18th)+0.47 (64th)
EPA per play allowed+0.12 (87th)+0.07 (56th)
EPA per pass allowed+0.12 (51st)+0.26 (97th)
EPA per rush allowed+0.18 (121st)−0.06 (21st)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.41 (74th)+0.37 (57th)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Kansas State or Colorado?

Kansas State outscores FBS opponents by 11.8 a game, and Colorado is outscored by 10.0. Kansas State's offense ranks 42nd in scoring, and the Colorado defense it faces ranks 112th in points allowed. Colorado's offense ranks 120th against Kansas State's 46th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Kansas State's offense against Colorado's defense.

Kansas StateColorado
Points scored32.9 (42nd)20.1 (120th)
Points allowed21.1 (46th)30.1 (112th)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Kansas State's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 2nd in 3rd down conversion rate, and Colorado's defense ranks 123rd in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. Colorado has no clear edge here. Its best is explosive play rate, 100th, against a defense ranked 98th in explosive plays allowed.

Kansas StateColorado
Pass yards / game224.7 (75th)271.1 (28th)
Rush yards / game226.4 (14th)140.4 (100th)
Yards per play6.55 (39th)5.53 (115th)
Yards per carry6.31 (8th)4.43 (117th)
Yards per attempt6.99 (94th)6.68 (110th)
Completion %65.8% (49th)52.8% (117th)
Success rate49.0% (20th)36.9% (125th)
Explosive play rate11.2% (96th)10.9% (100th)
3rd down conversion56.8% (2nd)31.8% (123rd)
Sack rate (taken)2.6% (12th)5.0% (59th)
INT rate (thrown)1.3% (30th)3.5% (111th)
SUPLEX58.5% (47th)49.2% (116th)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Kansas State's defense is best placed to keep offenses behind schedule: it ranks 10th in success rate allowed, and Colorado's offense is bottom-20 in success rate (125th). That's a mismatch.

Kansas StateColorado
Pass yards allowed / game150.9 (5th)255.7 (118th)
Rush yards allowed / game174.4 (101st)149.1 (69th)
Yards per play allowed5.40 (43rd)6.34 (100th)
Yards per carry allowed5.26 (96th)4.52 (48th)
Yards per attempt allowed6.10 (27th)8.95 (120th)
Success rate allowed34.1% (10th)44.1% (93rd)
Explosive plays allowed12.6% (98th)14.8% (126th)
3rd downs allowed32.0% (21st)46.6% (123rd)
Sack rate (generated)8.9% (16th)7.4% (40th)
INT rate (generated)0.6% (138th)2.0% (83rd)
SUPLEX allowed50.8% (45th)58.7% (101st)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

Kansas State has the better number in 9 of 12. The biggest gap is open-field yards per carry, where Kansas State ranks 5th and Colorado 114th.

Kansas StateColorado
Big Uglies: offensive line55.8 (26th)45.0 (110th)
Big Uglies: defensive front57.9 (17th)61.1 (9th)
Line yards per carry3.16 (46th)2.87 (100th)
Line yards allowed per carry3.12 (101st)2.69 (32nd)
Second-level yards per carry1.19 (37th)0.93 (113th)
Open-field yards per carry2.20 (5th)0.81 (114th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)16.4% (50th)19.0% (90th)
Stuff rate (defense)19.3% (64th)24.6% (13th)
Power success (short yardage)78.6% (29th)58.8% (131st)
Power success allowed47.6% (1st)60.0% (15th)
Front-seven havoc allowed7.3% (26th)10.3% (101st)
Front-seven havoc13.6% (9th)12.6% (14th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Kansas State is −0.3 in turnover margin a game and Colorado is −1.3. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 5-point edge for Kansas State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.

Kansas StateColorado
Interceptions thrown / game0.43 (25th)1.43 (131st)
Fumbles lost / game0.43 (53rd)0.86 (116th)
Giveaways / game0.86 (25th)2.29 (133rd)
Interceptions / game0.14 (136th)0.57 (85th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.43 (69th)0.43 (69th)
Takeaways / game0.57 (126th)1.00 (88th)
Turnover margin / game-0.3 (89th)-1.3 (132nd)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

Colorado has the more talented roster (38th in the 247Sports talent composite; Kansas State is 47th). But Kansas State plays further above its talent: +5.3 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Colorado's −8.6.

Kansas StateColorado
Talent composite718.7 (47th)731.6 (38th)
Blue-chip ratio13.3% (55th)31.7% (25th)
Players on roster109 (82nd)105 (106th)
Rated by 247Sports83 (47th)63 (117th)
5-star players0 (37th)1 (24th)
4-star players11 (53rd)19 (35th)
3-star players70 (28th)40 (121st)
Below 3-star2 (68th)3 (53rd)
2026 transfers in28 (41st)43 (8th)
Transfer share33.7% (48th)68.3% (4th)
SP+ vs. talent+5.3 (36th)-8.6 (119th)
Returning production71.4% (21st)13.7% (115th)
Returning passing production100.0% (11th)-26.1% (130th)
Returning rushing production60.6% (55th)-37.1% (131st)
Returning receiving production57.3% (33rd)38.6% (67th)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)50 (50th)67 (67th)
Recruiting rank, last four classes43.8 (42nd)53.5 (55th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Which roster costs more?

Kansas State's roster is valued at $21.9M, Colorado's at $21.5M. Kansas State also plays better per dollar: +1.7 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −11.0 for Colorado.

Kansas StateColorado
Roster value$21.9M (39th)$21.5M (41st)
Roster cost per win$5.5M (36th)$10.7M (67th)
Projected wins per $1M0.36 (16th)0.14 (69th)
SP+ vs. payroll+1.7 (33rd)-11.0 (65th)

NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Kansas State is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.1). Colorado is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.2). Kansas State's record is 1.1 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.

Kansas StateColorado
RECEIPTS (total)+0.5 (57th)-1.5 (115th)
Schedule RECEIPTS+0.6 (65th)-1.2 (131st)
Roster RECEIPTS+0.5 (38th)+0.3 (47th)
Coach RECEIPTS+0.6 (45th)-0.8 (104th)
Luck RECEIPTS-1.1 (126th)+0.2 (55th)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Kansas State at Colorado: questions people ask

Kansas State vs. Colorado prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick Kansas State, 72% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Kansas State's best matchup is its early-down defense, 45th in SUPLEX allowed, against Colorado's early-down offense at 116th.

Where can I watch Kansas State vs. Colorado, and what time is it?

Sat, Oct 31, 2:00 PM ET at Folsom Field. It's on TNT.

What's the projected score of Kansas State vs. Colorado?

SP+ projects Kansas State 31–20. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Kansas State at Colorado?

DraftKings has Colorado −3, total 46.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Kansas State vs. Colorado series history?

Colorado leads 45–22–1. Last meeting: Kansas State won 24–14 in 2025.

Who are the players to watch in Kansas State vs. Colorado?

Kansas State: Johnson (1,315 passing yards), Rodney Fields Jr. (422 rushing yards) and Jaron Tibbs (327 receiving yards). Colorado: Isaac Wilson (999 passing yards), Jaquail Smith (298 rushing yards) and Joseph Williams (661 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Kansas State at Colorado?

Kansas State's is Johnson (1,315 passing yards this season); Colorado's is Isaac Wilson (999 passing yards this season).

Who's out for Kansas State at Colorado?

Kansas State: Johnson (QB), out; Jacob Knuth (QB), doubtful. Colorado: Lewis (QB), out.

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Kansas State and Colorado: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.