This week's picks

Arizona State vs. BYU Prediction and Pick, Week 9 2026

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Data updatedOct 31, 2026
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Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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Arizona State at BYU

Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET, LaVell Edwards Stadium.

The numbers say: BYU, 89% to win.

The game

KickoffSat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET
TVFox
WhereLaVell Edwards Stadium
Weather57°, cloudy, wind 5 mph
LineBYU −16.5, total 48.5
Line movementOpened BYU −17.5; moved 1 point toward Arizona State. Total opened 51.5, down 3.
SeriesArizona State leads 21–8
Last meetingArizona State 28–23 in 2024
BYU injuriesLJ Martin (RB), out; Evan Johnson (CB), out

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+BYU by 16.989%51
PRIMEBYU by 16.588%
EloBYU84%
The lineBYU −16.5, opened −17.548.5, opened 51.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Fri, Oct 30, 7:43 PM ET.

Who wins, Arizona State or BYU?

The numbers say: BYU. 87% chance to win

Which matchups decide Arizona State vs. BYU?

All three ratings favor BYU, by 16.5 to 16.9 points, and it isn't close. BYU's best matchup is its pass defense, 25th in EPA per pass allowed, against Arizona State's passing game at 126th. Arizona State doesn't have a unit with a clear edge over the one it faces. We left out the edges built on Martin, who's out.

Arizona State with the ball

BYU with the ball

Who's out for Arizona State and BYU?

Arizona State

BYU

How Arizona State and BYU compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Arizona State and BYU are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Arizona State's and BYU's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Arizona State and BYU?

On a neutral field, SP+ has BYU 14.4 points better (13th to 62nd). PRIME also has BYU ahead, by 14.0. Elo, which only sees results, also has BYU ahead (31st to 73rd).

Arizona StateBYU
SP+ overall2.3 (62nd)16.7 (13th)
SP+ offense26.9 (66th)33.9 (20th)
SP+ defense24.3 (53rd)17.6 (20th)
SP+ special teams-0.3 (104th)0.4 (11th)
PRIME net2.4 (58th)16.4 (11th)
PRIME offense-1.52 (78th)8.16 (21st)
PRIME defense3.56 (39th)7.74 (19th)
PRIME SOS-0.4 (48th)1.9 (26th)
PRIME SOR0.4 (55th)2.8 (8th)
Elo1471 (73rd)1708 (31st)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Arizona State's offense ranks 118th in adjusted EPA per play, and the BYU defense it faces ranks 41st in EPA per play allowed. BYU's offense ranks 19th against Arizona State's 69th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is BYU's offense against Arizona State's defense. The biggest edge on the board is BYU's backs in the open field: 37th in adjusted open-field yards per carry, against Arizona State's 113th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.

Arizona StateBYU
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.02 (118th)+0.20 (19th)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.10 (126th)+0.23 (35th)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.03 (106th)+0.16 (6th)
Success rate (adjusted)41.8% (63rd)46.1% (25th)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)46.1% (80th)50.2% (24th)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)30.9% (61st)31.2% (53rd)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.92 (99th)0.96 (26th)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)2.95 (74th)3.07 (37th)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.10 (78th)1.23 (37th)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.11 (69th)+0.06 (41st)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.19 (71st)+0.12 (25th)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.05 (58th)+0.05 (52nd)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)41.1% (57th)39.1% (31st)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.94 (76th)0.92 (39th)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)2.90 (50th)2.90 (52nd)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)1.31 (113th)1.00 (34th)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Arizona State or BYU?

Arizona State is about as good throwing (91st in EPA per pass) as running (103rd). BYU is better running (5th in EPA per rush) than throwing (33rd). Arizona State's run defense ranks 63rd, so that's an edge. On third down, BYU has the edge: its offense ranks 6th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 52nd.

Arizona StateBYU
EPA per play+0.06 (103rd)+0.28 (16th)
EPA per pass+0.16 (91st)+0.35 (33rd)
EPA per rush+0.02 (103rd)+0.26 (5th)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.11 (128th)+0.82 (6th)
EPA per play allowed+0.08 (63rd)+0.03 (36th)
EPA per pass allowed+0.12 (51st)+0.08 (37th)
EPA per rush allowed+0.05 (63rd)0.00 (46th)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.35 (52nd)+0.50 (103rd)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Arizona State or BYU?

Arizona State outscores FBS opponents by 1.0 a game, and BYU by 14.5. Arizona State's offense ranks 56th in scoring, and the BYU defense it faces ranks 26th in points allowed. BYU's offense ranks 40th against Arizona State's 110th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is BYU's offense against Arizona State's defense.

Arizona StateBYU
Points scored30.9 (56th)33.1 (40th)
Points allowed29.9 (110th)18.6 (26th)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Arizona State has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 37th, against a defense ranked 20th in yards per carry allowed. BYU's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 13th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Arizona State's defense ranks 102nd in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch.

Arizona StateBYU
Pass yards / game269.1 (32nd)220.6 (79th)
Rush yards / game166.9 (69th)198.3 (33rd)
Yards per play5.78 (97th)6.28 (58th)
Yards per carry5.62 (37th)5.93 (22nd)
Yards per attempt6.26 (115th)6.74 (104th)
Completion %49.8% (126th)51.5% (122nd)
Success rate38.8% (116th)46.5% (36th)
Explosive play rate11.9% (78th)12.2% (68th)
3rd down conversion27.5% (133rd)50.0% (13th)
Sack rate (taken)5.9% (82nd)1.7% (4th)
INT rate (thrown)1.7% (42nd)1.8% (43rd)
SUPLEX56.3% (72nd)59.5% (41st)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

BYU's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 17th in explosive plays allowed, and Arizona State's offense is middle of the pack in explosive play rate (78th). That's a mismatch.

Arizona StateBYU
Pass yards allowed / game220.0 (89th)208.6 (65th)
Rush yards allowed / game149.3 (70th)107.9 (11th)
Yards per play allowed6.38 (103rd)5.43 (50th)
Yards per carry allowed5.07 (86th)3.99 (20th)
Yards per attempt allowed8.28 (101st)7.05 (70th)
Success rate allowed45.2% (104th)42.6% (77th)
Explosive plays allowed10.9% (62nd)9.1% (17th)
3rd downs allowed43.2% (102nd)44.0% (105th)
Sack rate (generated)6.5% (61st)5.5% (82nd)
INT rate (generated)1.6% (104th)2.9% (54th)
SUPLEX allowed60.0% (108th)51.6% (51st)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

BYU has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc allowed, where BYU ranks 2nd and Arizona State 98th.

Arizona StateBYU
Big Uglies: offensive line46.3 (101st)59.7 (11th)
Big Uglies: defensive front50.7 (65th)52.2 (52nd)
Line yards per carry2.97 (87th)3.26 (29th)
Line yards allowed per carry2.96 (73rd)2.73 (44th)
Second-level yards per carry1.28 (17th)1.14 (55th)
Open-field yards per carry1.38 (49th)1.21 (68th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)20.9% (109th)16.5% (52nd)
Stuff rate (defense)17.1% (90th)20.9% (39th)
Power success (short yardage)65.4% (111th)76.3% (41st)
Power success allowed63.6% (29th)60.9% (17th)
Front-seven havoc allowed10.1% (98th)4.0% (2nd)
Front-seven havoc8.8% (87th)9.1% (80th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

BYU is +0.3 in turnover margin a game and Arizona State is −0.6. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 4-point edge for BYU. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.

Arizona StateBYU
Interceptions thrown / game0.71 (61st)0.57 (40th)
Fumbles lost / game0.71 (99th)0.29 (20th)
Giveaways / game1.43 (88th)0.86 (25th)
Interceptions / game0.43 (105th)0.86 (45th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.43 (69th)0.29 (94th)
Takeaways / game0.86 (107th)1.14 (67th)
Turnover margin / game-0.6 (113th)+0.3 (47th)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

Arizona State has the more talented roster (45th in the 247Sports talent composite; BYU is 59th). But BYU plays further above its talent: +15.0 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Arizona State's −1.4.

Arizona StateBYU
Talent composite722.0 (45th)689.4 (59th)
Blue-chip ratio16.8% (46th)14.0% (53rd)
Players on roster101 (129th)117 (29th)
Rated by 247Sports95 (10th)86 (36th)
5-star players0 (37th)0 (37th)
4-star players16 (41st)12 (51st)
3-star players79 (7th)72 (21st)
Below 3-star0 (113th)2 (68th)
2026 transfers in25 (51st)9 (130th)
Transfer share26.3% (83rd)10.5% (130th)
SP+ vs. talent-1.4 (71st)+15.0 (9th)
Returning production15.5% (106th)78.5% (15th)
Returning passing production5.4% (93rd)100.0% (11th)
Returning rushing production-4.8% (124th)96.5% (24th)
Returning receiving production30.5% (81st)51.3% (45th)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)40 (40th)21 (21st)
Recruiting rank, last four classes44.0 (43rd)46.5 (44th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Which roster costs more?

BYU's roster is valued at $22.1M, Arizona State's at $20.0M. BYU also plays better per dollar: +9.4 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −2.9 for Arizona State.

Arizona StateBYU
Roster value$20.0M (53rd)$22.1M (38th)
Roster cost per win$5.0M (28th)$3.7M (9th)
Projected wins per $1M0.25 (42nd)0.40 (9th)
SP+ vs. payroll-2.9 (46th)+9.4 (6th)

NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Arizona State is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+0.6). BYU is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.8). BYU's record is running 0.8 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.

Arizona StateBYU
RECEIPTS (total)+0.5 (57th)+2.5 (8th)
Schedule RECEIPTS-0.3 (102nd)-0.4 (109th)
Roster RECEIPTS+0.3 (49th)+0.3 (48th)
Coach RECEIPTS-0.1 (70th)+1.8 (8th)
Luck RECEIPTS+0.6 (34th)+0.8 (22nd)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Arizona State at BYU: questions people ask

Arizona State vs. BYU prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick BYU, 87% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. BYU's best matchup is its pass defense, 25th in EPA per pass allowed, against Arizona State's passing game at 126th.

Where can I watch Arizona State vs. BYU, and what time is it?

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET at LaVell Edwards Stadium. It's on Fox.

What's the projected score of Arizona State vs. BYU?

SP+ projects BYU 34–17. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Arizona State at BYU?

DraftKings has BYU −16.5, total 48.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Arizona State vs. BYU series history?

Arizona State leads 21–8. Last meeting: Arizona State won 28–23 in 2024.

Who are the players to watch in Arizona State vs. BYU?

Arizona State: Cutter Boley (1,372 passing yards), Cardae Mack (400 rushing yards) and Reed Harris (800 receiving yards). BYU: Bear Bachmeier (1,514 passing yards), Martin (344 rushing yards) and Legend Glasker (498 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Arizona State at BYU?

Arizona State's is Cutter Boley (1,372 passing yards this season); BYU's is Bear Bachmeier (1,514 passing yards this season).

Who's out for Arizona State at BYU?

BYU: Martin (RB), out; Evan Johnson (CB), out.

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Arizona State and BYU: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.