This week's picks

Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State Prediction, Week 9 2026

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Data updatedOct 31, 2026
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How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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Jacksonville State at New Mexico State

Week 9, Wed, Oct 28, 8:00 PM ET, Aggie Memorial Stadium.

The numbers say: Jacksonville State, 69% to win.

The game

KickoffWed, Oct 28, 8:00 PM ET
TVESPN2
WhereAggie Memorial Stadium
Weather73°, clear, wind 3 mph
LineJacksonville State −3, total 49.5
Line movementTotal opened 50.5, down 1.
SeriesTied 1–1
Last meetingJacksonville State 54–13 in 2024

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+Jacksonville State by 8.372%49
PRIMEJacksonville State by 10.878%
EloJacksonville State67%
The lineJacksonville State −349.5, opened 50.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.

Who wins, Jacksonville State or New Mexico State?

The numbers say: Jacksonville State. 73% chance to win

Which matchups decide Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State?

All three ratings favor Jacksonville State, by 8.3 to 10.8 points. Jacksonville State's best matchup is its takeaway defense, 48th in interceptions per pass, against New Mexico State's ball security at 124th. New Mexico State's way back in is its pass protection, 42nd in sacks allowed per dropback, against Jacksonville State's pass rush at 109th.

Jacksonville State with the ball

New Mexico State with the ball

Who's out for Jacksonville State and New Mexico State?

Jacksonville State

New Mexico State

How Jacksonville State and New Mexico State compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Jacksonville State and New Mexico State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Jacksonville State's and New Mexico State's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Jacksonville State and New Mexico State?

On a neutral field, SP+ has Jacksonville State 10.8 points better (84th to 119th). PRIME also has Jacksonville State ahead, by 13.3. Elo, which only sees results, also has Jacksonville State ahead (84th to 115th).

Jacksonville StateNew Mexico State
SP+ overall-2.6 (84th)-13.4 (119th)
SP+ offense25.5 (79th)17.3 (122nd)
SP+ defense28.1 (83rd)30.2 (100th)
SP+ special teams-0.1 (80th)-0.4 (113th)
PRIME net-2.3 (79th)-15.6 (128th)
PRIME offense-0.07 (64th)-9.96 (133rd)
PRIME defense-2.00 (88th)-3.22 (95th)
PRIME SOS-7.8 (121st)-5.8 (99th)
PRIME SOR0.5 (53rd)-2.1 (118th)
Elo1430 (84th)1249 (115th)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Jacksonville State's offense ranks 62nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the New Mexico State defense it faces ranks 63rd in EPA per play allowed. New Mexico State's offense ranks 130th against Jacksonville State's 84th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is New Mexico State's offensive line in the run game: 77th in adjusted line yards per carry, against Jacksonville State's 103rd-ranked defense.

Jacksonville StateNew Mexico State
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.12 (62nd)+0.00 (130th)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.20 (60th)+0.10 (123rd)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.07 (64th)+0.04 (90th)
Success rate (adjusted)43.4% (49th)40.5% (81st)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)48.2% (43rd)45.2% (96th)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)31.1% (57th)31.1% (56th)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.93 (74th)0.95 (48th)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)2.94 (80th)2.94 (77th)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.06 (91st)1.22 (41st)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.13 (84th)+0.09 (63rd)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.20 (73rd)+0.16 (52nd)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.10 (103rd)+0.06 (62nd)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)43.4% (95th)41.0% (55th)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.90 (18th)0.93 (59th)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)3.06 (103rd)2.79 (23rd)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)0.98 (27th)1.20 (92nd)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Jacksonville State or New Mexico State?

Jacksonville State is about as good throwing (47th in EPA per pass) as running (47th). New Mexico State is better running (74th in EPA per rush) than throwing (133rd). Jacksonville State's run defense ranks 112th, so that's an edge. On third down, Jacksonville State has the edge: its offense ranks 11th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 67th.

Jacksonville StateNew Mexico State
EPA per play+0.19 (44th)−0.04 (128th)
EPA per pass+0.29 (47th)−0.06 (133rd)
EPA per rush+0.14 (47th)+0.09 (74th)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.77 (11th)+0.52 (50th)
EPA per play allowed+0.09 (70th)+0.06 (53rd)
EPA per pass allowed+0.06 (31st)+0.05 (27th)
EPA per rush allowed+0.16 (112th)+0.09 (83rd)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.52 (106th)+0.39 (67th)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Jacksonville State or New Mexico State?

Jacksonville State outscores FBS opponents by 4.6 a game, and New Mexico State is outscored by 0.8. Jacksonville State's offense ranks 79th in scoring, and the New Mexico State defense it faces ranks 83rd in points allowed. New Mexico State's offense ranks 95th against Jacksonville State's 56th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.

Jacksonville StateNew Mexico State
Points scored27.3 (79th)24.6 (95th)
Points allowed22.7 (56th)25.4 (83rd)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Jacksonville State has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 57th, against a defense ranked 81st in 3rd down conversions allowed. New Mexico State's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 90th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Jacksonville State's defense ranks 127th in 3rd down conversions allowed.

Jacksonville StateNew Mexico State
Pass yards / game242.7 (55th)216.5 (84th)
Rush yards / game155.1 (86th)163.5 (74th)
Yards per play6.65 (35th)6.25 (62nd)
Yards per carry5.10 (73rd)5.36 (55th)
Yards per attempt8.54 (34th)7.47 (80th)
Completion %66.8% (44th)59.8% (86th)
Success rate47.7% (29th)43.3% (75th)
Explosive play rate14.1% (33rd)12.9% (49th)
3rd down conversion42.4% (57th)36.8% (90th)
Sack rate (taken)3.4% (27th)4.4% (42nd)
INT rate (thrown)3.0% (97th)4.0% (124th)
SUPLEX64.1% (19th)53.6% (87th)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Jacksonville State's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 48th in interception rate, and New Mexico State's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (124th). That's a mismatch. New Mexico State's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 17th in yards per carry allowed, and Jacksonville State's offense is middle of the pack in yards per carry (73rd).

Jacksonville StateNew Mexico State
Pass yards allowed / game192.1 (36th)235.2 (106th)
Rush yards allowed / game147.6 (67th)108.5 (13th)
Yards per play allowed5.54 (56th)5.22 (26th)
Yards per carry allowed4.61 (55th)3.95 (17th)
Yards per attempt allowed6.86 (58th)6.53 (47th)
Success rate allowed42.0% (70th)37.0% (31st)
Explosive plays allowed10.3% (49th)9.4% (23rd)
3rd downs allowed47.3% (127th)40.0% (81st)
Sack rate (generated)4.4% (109th)6.1% (70th)
INT rate (generated)3.1% (48th)2.8% (60th)
SUPLEX allowed48.9% (35th)48.1% (28th)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

New Mexico State has the better number in 9 of 11. The biggest gap is stuff rate (defense), where New Mexico State ranks 20th and Jacksonville State 126th.

Jacksonville StateNew Mexico State
Big Uglies: offensive line51.9 (55th)54.2 (36th)
Big Uglies: defensive front39.6 (127th)53.5 (42nd)
Line yards per carry3.11 (53rd)3.15 (47th)
Line yards allowed per carry3.18 (114th)2.75 (50th)
Second-level yards per carry1.25 (21st)1.10 (63rd)
Open-field yards per carry1.29 (57th)1.50 (30th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)19.9% (98th)13.6% (14th)
Stuff rate (defense)13.7% (126th)23.1% (20th)
Power success (short yardage)79.0% (28th)75.9% (46th)
Power success allowed90.9% (137th)79.2% (115th)
Front-seven havoc allowed8.5% (48th)8.5% (48th)
Front-seven havoc8.6% (93rd)10.4% (49th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Neither team has a real turnover edge: Jacksonville State is −0.6 a game and New Mexico State −0.9.

Jacksonville StateNew Mexico State
Interceptions thrown / game1.00 (105th)1.43 (131st)
Fumbles lost / game0.43 (53rd)0.57 (74th)
Giveaways / game1.43 (88th)2.00 (128th)
Interceptions / game0.86 (45th)0.86 (45th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.00 (131st)0.29 (94th)
Takeaways / game0.86 (107th)1.14 (67th)
Turnover margin / game-0.6 (113th)-0.9 (121st)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

Jacksonville State has the more talented roster (93rd in the 247Sports talent composite; New Mexico State is 135th). Jacksonville State also plays further above its talent: +1.2 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to New Mexico State's −0.7.

Jacksonville StateNew Mexico State
Talent composite602.8 (93rd)460.4 (135th)
Blue-chip ratio7.6% (81st)4.3% (97th)
Players on roster128 (4th)101 (129th)
Rated by 247Sports66 (111th)46 (133rd)
5-star players0 (37th)0 (37th)
4-star players5 (81st)2 (106th)
3-star players61 (66th)36 (124th)
Below 3-star0 (113th)8 (8th)
2026 transfers in21 (67th)26 (47th)
Transfer share31.8% (57th)56.5% (15th)
SP+ vs. talent+1.2 (59th)-0.7 (69th)
Returning production49.5% (56th)24.4% (93rd)
Returning passing production76.0% (56th)40.1% (66th)
Returning rushing production41.6% (71st)80.7% (38th)
Returning receiving production49.0% (48th)30.3% (82nd)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)86 (86th)136 (134th)
Recruiting rank, last four classes121.8 (127th)127.2 (128th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Jacksonville State is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.4). New Mexico State is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (−1.7).

Jacksonville StateNew Mexico State
RECEIPTS (total)+1.5 (30th)-0.5 (89th)
Schedule RECEIPTS+1.4 (20th)+1.2 (37th)
Roster RECEIPTS-0.3 (96th)-1.7 (135th)
Coach RECEIPTS-0.1 (68th)-0.2 (79th)
Luck RECEIPTS+0.5 (36th)+0.2 (57th)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Jacksonville State at New Mexico State: questions people ask

Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick Jacksonville State, 73% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Jacksonville State's best matchup is its takeaway defense, 48th in interceptions per pass, against New Mexico State's ball security at 124th.

Where can I watch Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State, and what time is it?

Wed, Oct 28, 8:00 PM ET at Aggie Memorial Stadium. It's on ESPN2.

What's the projected score of Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State?

SP+ projects Jacksonville State 28–20. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Jacksonville State at New Mexico State?

DraftKings has Jacksonville State −3, total 49.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State series history?

It's tied 1–1. Last meeting: Jacksonville State won 54–13 in 2024.

Who are the players to watch in Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State?

Jacksonville State: Caden Creel (1,762 passing yards), Jalen Likely (231 rushing yards) and Deondre Johnson (438 receiving yards). New Mexico State: Trey Hedden (914 passing yards), James Jones (881 rushing yards) and Tyler King (307 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Jacksonville State at New Mexico State?

Jacksonville State's is Caden Creel (1,762 passing yards this season); New Mexico State's is Trey Hedden (914 passing yards this season).

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Jacksonville State and New Mexico State: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.