This week's picks

Georgia Tech vs. Pittsburgh Prediction and Pick, Week 9 2026

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Data updatedOct 31, 2026
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Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh

Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET, Acrisure Stadium.

The numbers say: Pittsburgh, 75% to win.

The game

KickoffSat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET
TVESPN2
WhereAcrisure Stadium
Weather58°, overcast, wind 2 mph
LinePittsburgh −8.5, total 54.5
Line movementOpened Pittsburgh −7; moved 1.5 points toward Pittsburgh. Total opened 52.5, up 2.
SeriesPittsburgh leads 12–6
Last meetingPittsburgh 42–28 in 2025
Pittsburgh injuriesHeintschel (QB), out

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+Pittsburgh by 11.579%59
PRIMEPittsburgh by 7.771%
EloPittsburgh79%
The linePittsburgh −8.5, opened −754.5, opened 52.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Fri, Oct 30, 7:43 PM ET.

Who wins, Georgia Tech or Pittsburgh?

The numbers say: Pittsburgh. 76% chance to win

Which matchups decide Georgia Tech vs. Pittsburgh?

All three ratings favor Pittsburgh, by 7.7 to 11.5 points. Pittsburgh's best matchup is its offensive line, 23rd in line yards per carry, against Georgia Tech's run-stopping front at 126th. Georgia Tech's way back in is its big-play offense, 21st in explosive play rate, against Pittsburgh's big-play defense at 67th. We left out the edges built on Heintschel, who's out.

Georgia Tech with the ball

Pittsburgh with the ball

Who's out for Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh?

Georgia Tech

Pittsburgh

How Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Georgia Tech's and Pittsburgh's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh?

On a neutral field, SP+ has Pittsburgh 9.0 points better (44th to 75th). PRIME also has Pittsburgh ahead, by 5.2. Elo, which only sees results, also has Pittsburgh ahead (52nd to 89th).

Georgia TechPittsburgh
SP+ overall-1.1 (75th)7.9 (44th)
SP+ offense28.3 (57th)30.0 (46th)
SP+ defense29.4 (95th)22.4 (39th)
SP+ special teams0.0 (68th)0.3 (28th)
PRIME net-2.5 (81st)2.7 (57th)
PRIME offense0.64 (59th)-0.55 (71st)
PRIME defense-3.25 (96th)2.91 (43rd)
PRIME SOS-1.4 (60th)0.3 (42nd)
PRIME SOR-1.7 (112th)1.1 (37th)
Elo1412 (89th)1588 (52nd)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Georgia Tech's offense ranks 58th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Pittsburgh defense it faces ranks 39th in EPA per play allowed. Pittsburgh's offense ranks 68th against Georgia Tech's 129th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Pittsburgh's offense against Georgia Tech's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Pittsburgh's offensive line in the run game: 23rd in adjusted line yards per carry, against Georgia Tech's 126th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.

Georgia TechPittsburgh
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.12 (58th)+0.11 (68th)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.18 (76th)+0.20 (65th)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.07 (56th)+0.06 (77th)
Success rate (adjusted)43.2% (51st)42.3% (59th)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)48.0% (46th)47.4% (53rd)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)30.3% (75th)31.2% (52nd)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.95 (40th)0.90 (130th)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)2.92 (86th)3.11 (23rd)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.32 (20th)1.01 (106th)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.22 (129th)+0.06 (39th)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.29 (126th)+0.23 (94th)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.15 (127th)−0.04 (6th)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)44.8% (107th)36.6% (15th)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.94 (88th)0.94 (77th)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)3.19 (126th)2.43 (2nd)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)1.34 (118th)0.88 (9th)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Georgia Tech or Pittsburgh?

Georgia Tech is about as good throwing (64th in EPA per pass) as running (58th). Pittsburgh is about as good throwing (52nd in EPA per pass) as running (66th). On third down, Pittsburgh has the edge: its offense ranks 47th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 130th.

Georgia TechPittsburgh
EPA per play+0.16 (57th)+0.16 (57th)
EPA per pass+0.23 (64th)+0.26 (52nd)
EPA per rush+0.12 (58th)+0.10 (66th)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.32 (102nd)+0.54 (47th)
EPA per play allowed+0.24 (124th)+0.04 (43rd)
EPA per pass allowed+0.38 (125th)+0.28 (102nd)
EPA per rush allowed+0.18 (121st)−0.16 (4th)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.67 (130th)+0.45 (86th)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Georgia Tech or Pittsburgh?

Georgia Tech is outscored by 3.6 a game, and Pittsburgh by 10.7. Georgia Tech's offense ranks 82nd in scoring, and the Pittsburgh defense it faces ranks 40th in points allowed. Pittsburgh's offense ranks 49th against Georgia Tech's 114th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Pittsburgh's offense against Georgia Tech's defense.

Georgia TechPittsburgh
Points scored26.7 (82nd)31.6 (49th)
Points allowed30.3 (114th)20.9 (40th)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Georgia Tech's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 21st in explosive play rate, and Pittsburgh's defense ranks 67th in explosive plays allowed. Pittsburgh's best matchup is staying on schedule: its offense ranks 38th in success rate, and Georgia Tech's defense ranks 112th in success rate allowed. That's a mismatch.

Georgia TechPittsburgh
Pass yards / game263.0 (38th)289.3 (18th)
Rush yards / game140.4 (100th)160.8 (77th)
Yards per play6.63 (37th)6.69 (32nd)
Yards per carry5.49 (43rd)5.02 (78th)
Yards per attempt7.90 (58th)8.48 (36th)
Completion %68.7% (38th)65.2% (57th)
Success rate44.1% (66th)46.3% (38th)
Explosive play rate15.0% (21st)13.2% (40th)
3rd down conversion32.9% (119th)42.2% (58th)
Sack rate (taken)5.7% (74th)3.2% (21st)
INT rate (thrown)2.6% (82nd)1.8% (47th)
SUPLEX61.5% (27th)56.6% (68th)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Pittsburgh's defense is best placed to keep offenses behind schedule: it ranks 13th in success rate allowed, and Georgia Tech's offense is middle of the pack in success rate (66th).

Georgia TechPittsburgh
Pass yards allowed / game200.0 (46th)270.0 (127th)
Rush yards allowed / game203.4 (127th)76.0 (2nd)
Yards per play allowed6.64 (114th)5.83 (77th)
Yards per carry allowed5.79 (123rd)3.27 (2nd)
Yards per attempt allowed8.24 (98th)7.94 (89th)
Success rate allowed46.1% (112th)34.9% (13th)
Explosive plays allowed13.9% (113th)10.9% (67th)
3rd downs allowed46.5% (122nd)39.6% (78th)
Sack rate (generated)5.0% (95th)5.9% (74th)
INT rate (generated)0.6% (137th)3.3% (35th)
SUPLEX allowed57.6% (96th)44.2% (19th)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

Pittsburgh has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is line yards allowed per carry, where Pittsburgh ranks 3rd and Georgia Tech 125th.

Georgia TechPittsburgh
Big Uglies: offensive line46.3 (101st)59.0 (12th)
Big Uglies: defensive front42.7 (116th)63.6 (8th)
Line yards per carry2.95 (89th)3.23 (36th)
Line yards allowed per carry3.32 (125th)1.86 (3rd)
Second-level yards per carry1.17 (43rd)1.15 (50th)
Open-field yards per carry1.70 (22nd)0.94 (99th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)20.0% (100th)14.7% (26th)
Stuff rate (defense)15.2% (115th)26.3% (8th)
Power success (short yardage)66.7% (100th)78.1% (33rd)
Power success allowed75.0% (93rd)65.5% (37th)
Front-seven havoc allowed11.0% (116th)6.7% (19th)
Front-seven havoc10.5% (46th)11.1% (35th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Pittsburgh is +0.4 in turnover margin a game and Georgia Tech is −0.9. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 6-point edge for Pittsburgh. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.

Georgia TechPittsburgh
Interceptions thrown / game0.86 (84th)0.63 (51st)
Fumbles lost / game0.43 (53rd)0.38 (42nd)
Giveaways / game1.29 (72nd)1.00 (36th)
Interceptions / game0.14 (136th)1.13 (19th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.29 (94th)0.25 (113th)
Takeaways / game0.43 (135th)1.38 (51st)
Turnover margin / game-0.9 (121st)+0.4 (41st)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

Georgia Tech has the more talented roster (34th in the 247Sports talent composite; Pittsburgh is 64th). But Pittsburgh plays further above its talent: +7.1 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Georgia Tech's −6.7.

Georgia TechPittsburgh
Talent composite751.7 (34th)675.0 (64th)
Blue-chip ratio15.5% (48th)13.0% (56th)
Players on roster107 (94th)112 (58th)
Rated by 247Sports84 (44th)77 (78th)
5-star players2 (19th)0 (37th)
4-star players11 (53rd)10 (58th)
3-star players71 (23rd)65 (54th)
Below 3-star0 (113th)2 (68th)
2026 transfers in19 (84th)16 (111th)
Transfer share22.6% (95th)20.8% (107th)
SP+ vs. talent-6.7 (108th)+7.1 (29th)
Returning production12.6% (117th)39.7% (67th)
Returning passing production0.0% (109th)58.6% (64th)
Returning rushing production34.8% (75th)67.2% (52nd)
Returning receiving production11.3% (122nd)24.0% (95th)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)41 (41st)44 (44th)
Recruiting rank, last four classes39.2 (36th)46.8 (46th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Which roster costs more?

Pittsburgh's roster is valued at $22.1M, Georgia Tech's at $20.1M. Pittsburgh also plays better per dollar: +0.5 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −6.4 for Georgia Tech.

Georgia TechPittsburgh
Roster value$20.1M (52nd)$22.1M (37th)
Roster cost per win$10.1M (65th)$4.4M (20th)
Projected wins per $1M0.22 (51st)0.35 (19th)
SP+ vs. payroll-6.4 (60th)+0.5 (37th)

NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Georgia Tech is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.6). Pittsburgh is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.0). Georgia Tech's record is 1.6 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.

Georgia TechPittsburgh
RECEIPTS (total)-1.5 (115th)+1.0 (50th)
Schedule RECEIPTS+0.3 (75th)+0.0 (88th)
Roster RECEIPTS+0.5 (36th)+0.1 (61st)
Coach RECEIPTS-0.8 (101st)+1.0 (25th)
Luck RECEIPTS-1.6 (134th)-0.2 (81st)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh: questions people ask

Georgia Tech vs. Pittsburgh prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick Pittsburgh, 76% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Pittsburgh's best matchup is its offensive line, 23rd in line yards per carry, against Georgia Tech's run-stopping front at 126th.

Where can I watch Georgia Tech vs. Pittsburgh, and what time is it?

Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET at Acrisure Stadium. It's on ESPN2.

What's the projected score of Georgia Tech vs. Pittsburgh?

SP+ projects Pittsburgh 35–24. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh?

DraftKings has Pittsburgh −8.5, total 54.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Georgia Tech vs. Pittsburgh series history?

Pittsburgh leads 12–6. Last meeting: Pittsburgh won 42–28 in 2025.

Who are the players to watch in Georgia Tech vs. Pittsburgh?

Georgia Tech: Alberto Mendoza (1,768 passing yards), Justice Haynes (490 rushing yards) and Jordan Allen (533 receiving yards). Pittsburgh: Heintschel (1,306 passing yards), Damon Ferguson Jr. (472 rushing yards) and Cataurus Hicks (649 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh?

Georgia Tech's is Alberto Mendoza (1,768 passing yards this season); Pittsburgh's is Heintschel (1,306 passing yards this season).

Who's out for Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh?

Pittsburgh: Heintschel (QB), out.

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.