This week's picks

Boston College vs. Duke Prediction and Pick, Week 9 2026

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Data updatedOct 31, 2026
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Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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Boston College at Duke

Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET, Wallace Wade Stadium.

The numbers say: Duke, 74% to win.

The game

KickoffSat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET
TVCW
WhereWallace Wade Stadium
Weather66°, cloudy, wind 8 mph
LineDuke −7, total 48.5
Line movementTotal opened 47.5, up 1.
SeriesBoston College leads 5–4
Last meetingDuke 38–31 in 2022

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+Duke by 10.878%50
PRIMEDuke by 5.164%
EloDuke78%
The lineDuke −748.5, opened 47.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Fri, Oct 30, 7:43 PM ET.

Who wins, Boston College or Duke?

The numbers say: Duke. 73% chance to win

Which matchups decide Boston College vs. Duke?

All three ratings favor Duke, by 5.1 to 10.8 points. Duke's best matchup is its pass rush, 18th in sack rate, against Boston College's pass protection at 104th. Boston College's way back in is its defense, 24th in EPA per play allowed, against Duke's offense at 64th.

Boston College with the ball

Duke with the ball

Who's out for Boston College and Duke?

Boston College

Duke

How Boston College and Duke compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Boston College and Duke are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Boston College's and Duke's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Boston College and Duke?

On a neutral field, SP+ has Duke 8.3 points better (47th to 78th). PRIME also has Duke ahead, by 2.6. Elo, which only sees results, also has Duke ahead (40th to 74th).

Boston CollegeDuke
SP+ overall-1.5 (78th)6.8 (47th)
SP+ offense23.9 (90th)29.7 (49th)
SP+ defense25.1 (59th)22.9 (44th)
SP+ special teams-0.2 (92nd)0.0 (68th)
PRIME net1.5 (62nd)4.1 (52nd)
PRIME offense-0.76 (74th)-0.63 (73rd)
PRIME defense3.82 (38th)3.87 (36th)
PRIME SOS-1.3 (58th)-3.4 (76th)
PRIME SOR0.3 (59th)0.9 (44th)
Elo1468 (74th)1633 (40th)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Boston College's offense ranks 92nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Duke defense it faces ranks 33rd in EPA per play allowed. Duke's offense ranks 64th against Boston College's 24th-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face. The biggest edge on the board is Duke's big plays: 19th in adjusted explosiveness, against Boston College's 52nd-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Duke's offense falls from 35th to 64th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.

Boston CollegeDuke
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.07 (92nd)+0.11 (64th)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.15 (99th)+0.21 (48th)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.09 (46th)+0.06 (79th)
Success rate (adjusted)40.9% (78th)38.9% (104th)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)46.9% (68th)43.6% (122nd)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)29.4% (94th)31.6% (44th)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.96 (33rd)0.97 (19th)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)3.08 (34th)2.90 (90th)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.19 (46th)1.13 (73rd)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.04 (24th)+0.05 (33rd)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.13 (29th)+0.16 (51st)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.06 (67th)+0.01 (30th)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)40.6% (50th)40.9% (54th)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.93 (52nd)0.92 (32nd)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)3.03 (93rd)2.85 (36th)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)1.10 (59th)1.12 (67th)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Boston College or Duke?

Boston College is better running (74th in EPA per rush) than throwing (94th). Duke's run defense ranks 16th, so the defense has the better of it. Duke is about as good throwing (41st in EPA per pass) as running (47th).

Boston CollegeDuke
EPA per play+0.06 (103rd)+0.21 (35th)
EPA per pass+0.13 (94th)+0.31 (41st)
EPA per rush+0.09 (74th)+0.14 (47th)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.50 (58th)+0.56 (41st)
EPA per play allowed+0.01 (29th)+0.04 (43rd)
EPA per pass allowed+0.11 (46th)+0.19 (75th)
EPA per rush allowed+0.03 (58th)−0.08 (16th)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.02 (4th)+0.29 (39th)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Boston College or Duke?

Boston College outscores FBS opponents by 0.8 a game, and Duke by 13.9. Boston College's offense ranks 96th in scoring, and the Duke defense it faces ranks 17th in points allowed. Duke's offense ranks 62nd against Boston College's 63rd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.

Boston CollegeDuke
Points scored24.4 (96th)29.9 (62nd)
Points allowed23.6 (63rd)16.0 (17th)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Boston College has no clear edge here. Its best is SUPLEX, 69th, against a defense ranked 78th in SUPLEX allowed. Duke has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 42nd, against a defense ranked 54th in yards per carry allowed.

Boston CollegeDuke
Pass yards / game199.9 (100th)239.6 (58th)
Rush yards / game195.9 (36th)185.6 (47th)
Yards per play5.98 (84th)6.02 (79th)
Yards per carry5.88 (25th)5.50 (42nd)
Yards per attempt6.57 (111th)6.55 (112th)
Completion %50.7% (125th)51.9% (120th)
Success rate40.6% (97th)38.9% (114th)
Explosive play rate14.0% (34th)13.2% (42nd)
3rd down conversion33.7% (111th)38.3% (82nd)
Sack rate (taken)7.4% (104th)0.8% (1st)
INT rate (thrown)3.3% (106th)1.2% (22nd)
SUPLEX56.6% (69th)50.0% (106th)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Boston College's defense is best placed to keep offenses behind schedule: it ranks 79th in success rate allowed, and Duke's offense is bottom-40 in success rate (114th). Duke's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 18th in sack rate, and Boston College's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding sacks (104th). That's a mismatch.

Boston CollegeDuke
Pass yards allowed / game185.0 (27th)195.6 (43rd)
Rush yards allowed / game130.9 (41st)123.1 (29th)
Yards per play allowed5.77 (75th)5.75 (72nd)
Yards per carry allowed4.60 (54th)4.23 (33rd)
Yards per attempt allowed7.71 (84th)8.15 (95th)
Success rate allowed42.8% (79th)42.3% (73rd)
Explosive plays allowed9.4% (24th)9.8% (30th)
3rd downs allowed38.2% (67th)33.3% (29th)
Sack rate (generated)8.7% (18th)8.7% (18th)
INT rate (generated)5.9% (4th)1.2% (117th)
SUPLEX allowed54.2% (72nd)54.7% (78th)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

Duke has the better number in 9 of 12. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc allowed, where Duke ranks 6th and Boston College 126th.

Boston CollegeDuke
Big Uglies: offensive line45.6 (106th)55.0 (32nd)
Big Uglies: defensive front53.1 (45th)55.6 (26th)
Line yards per carry3.02 (82nd)3.12 (52nd)
Line yards allowed per carry2.97 (76th)2.68 (31st)
Second-level yards per carry1.43 (2nd)1.27 (19th)
Open-field yards per carry1.39 (46th)1.27 (60th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)23.1% (127th)17.1% (63rd)
Stuff rate (defense)19.8% (58th)20.3% (47th)
Power success (short yardage)66.7% (100th)69.2% (90th)
Power success allowed69.7% (64th)66.7% (39th)
Front-seven havoc allowed12.1% (126th)5.0% (6th)
Front-seven havoc12.2% (21st)10.3% (51st)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Neither team has a real turnover edge: Boston College is +0.4 a game and Duke +0.4. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Duke's takeaways lean on them (0.7 of 1.0 a game).

Boston CollegeDuke
Interceptions thrown / game1.00 (105th)0.43 (25th)
Fumbles lost / game0.43 (53rd)0.14 (3rd)
Giveaways / game1.43 (88th)0.57 (7th)
Interceptions / game1.43 (6th)0.29 (119th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.43 (69th)0.71 (24th)
Takeaways / game1.86 (11th)1.00 (88th)
Turnover margin / game+0.4 (35th)+0.4 (32nd)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

Duke has the more talented roster (69th in the 247Sports talent composite; Boston College is 71st). Duke also plays further above its talent: +6.4 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Boston College's −1.3.

Boston CollegeDuke
Talent composite660.0 (71st)668.5 (69th)
Blue-chip ratio6.1% (90th)9.0% (74th)
Players on roster123 (11th)101 (129th)
Rated by 247Sports82 (52nd)78 (70th)
5-star players0 (37th)0 (37th)
4-star players5 (81st)7 (70th)
3-star players76 (11th)70 (28th)
Below 3-star1 (86th)1 (86th)
2026 transfers in26 (47th)19 (84th)
Transfer share31.7% (58th)24.4% (91st)
SP+ vs. talent-1.3 (70th)+6.4 (33rd)
Returning production15.6% (105th)17.1% (103rd)
Returning passing production8.3% (87th)4.1% (96th)
Returning rushing production-62.3% (133rd)43.2% (70th)
Returning receiving production23.2% (97th)20.3% (100th)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)53 (53rd)71 (71st)
Recruiting rank, last four classes67.0 (69th)54.5 (57th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Which roster costs more?

Duke's roster is valued at $18.3M, Boston College's at $17.6M. Duke also plays better per dollar: +3.5 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −3.9 for Boston College.

Boston CollegeDuke
Roster value$17.6M (68th)$18.3M (64th)
Roster cost per win$4.4M (19th)$3.7M (8th)
Projected wins per $1M0.24 (48th)0.40 (8th)
SP+ vs. payroll-3.9 (51st)+3.5 (21st)

NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Boston College is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+1.0). Duke is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+0.9). Boston College's record is running 1.0 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.

Boston CollegeDuke
RECEIPTS (total)+0.5 (57th)+1.5 (30th)
Schedule RECEIPTS-0.2 (97th)+0.6 (63rd)
Roster RECEIPTS-0.1 (74th)-0.0 (67th)
Coach RECEIPTS-0.2 (78th)+0.9 (32nd)
Luck RECEIPTS+1.0 (13th)0.0 (67th)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Boston College at Duke: questions people ask

Boston College vs. Duke prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick Duke, 73% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Duke's best matchup is its pass rush, 18th in sack rate, against Boston College's pass protection at 104th.

Where can I watch Boston College vs. Duke, and what time is it?

Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET at Wallace Wade Stadium. It's on CW.

What's the projected score of Boston College vs. Duke?

SP+ projects Duke 30–19. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Boston College at Duke?

DraftKings has Duke −7, total 48.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Boston College vs. Duke series history?

Boston College leads 5–4. Last meeting: Duke won 38–31 in 2022.

Who are the players to watch in Boston College vs. Duke?

Boston College: Mason McKenzie (1,399 passing yards), Dickens (276 rushing yards) and Javarius Green (296 receiving yards). Duke: Walker Eget (1,462 passing yards), Nate Sheppard (834 rushing yards) and Jonah Burton (295 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Boston College at Duke?

Boston College's is Mason McKenzie (1,399 passing yards this season); Duke's is Walker Eget (1,462 passing yards this season).

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Boston College and Duke: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.