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Soft schedule or lucky bounces?: 2026 College Football Chart

College Football Charts
Data updatedOct 30, 2026

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Soft schedule or lucky bounces?

Luck RECEIPTS (up) against Schedule RECEIPTS (across). 138 teams.

Up and right are always better: metrics where lower is better (like ranks or points allowed) run in reverse. Dashed lines are the averages of the teams shown and split the chart into four groups. There's no trend line or gray band here: the chart compares two separate skills, so no spot is "expected." The lists rank teams on both skills together. Tap or click a team to open it in Head to head.

What this shows

Two ways a record lies. Right played an easier schedule than average; up won more close games and bounces than its play earned. Up and right, the record is padded both ways.

There is a weak negative relationship here (r = -0.25; r runs from −1 to +1, and positive means the two go together): teams better on Schedule RECEIPTS tend to be worse on Luck RECEIPTS. Schedule RECEIPTS accounts for about 6% of the differences in Luck RECEIPTS across the 138 teams shown.

Split by the averages: Padded both ways 34, Lucky against a real schedule 37, Soft schedule, earned the rest 36, Tough schedule, bad breaks 31.

Records padded both ways: Middle Tennessee (31st and 4th), UTSA (48th and 3rd), Buffalo (11th and 16th). Records that undersell them: Oregon (132nd and 111th), Penn State (101st and 132nd), LSU (119th and 127th). Ranks are among the 138 teams shown, Schedule RECEIPTS first, then Luck RECEIPTS.

Pac-12: 1 of 8 in Padded both ways, 2 in Tough schedule, bad breaks. Top of the list: Boise State (68th and 27th of 138).

Mountain West: 5 of 10 in Padded both ways, 1 in Tough schedule, bad breaks. Top of the list: Wyoming (4th and 51st of 138).

Where the data comes from. Luck RECEIPTS: our split of every game result, games through Oct 24, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Oct 27, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production. Schedule RECEIPTS: our split of every game result, games through Oct 24, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Oct 27, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.

Records padded both ways

  1. Middle Tennessee 31st and 4th of 138
  2. UTSA 48th and 3rd of 138
  3. Buffalo 11th and 16th of 138
  4. App State 20th and 23rd of 138
  5. Ohio 3rd and 68th of 138
  6. Wyoming 4th and 51st of 138

Records that undersell them

  1. Oregon 132nd and 111th of 138
  2. Penn State 101st and 132nd of 138
  3. LSU 119th and 127th of 138
  4. TCU 91st and 136th of 138
  5. Alabama 138th and 64th of 138
  6. Texas 137th and 66th of 138

About the stats on this chart

What is schedule RECEIPTS?

Schedule RECEIPTS: wins an average FBS team would gain or lose against this schedule. Plus means an easier schedule than average.

Where does the schedule RECEIPTS data come from?

From our split of every game result, games through Oct 24, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Oct 27, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.

What is luck RECEIPTS?

Luck RECEIPTS: actual wins minus the wins the team's SP+ says it should have. Close games and bounces. It tends to even out. 1.5 or more either way gets a Luck watch tag.

Where does the luck RECEIPTS data come from?

From our split of every game result, games through Oct 24, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Oct 27, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.