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Is the roster worth the money?: 2026 College Football Chart

College Football Charts
Data updatedOct 31, 2026

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Is the roster worth the money?

Roster RECEIPTS (up) against Roster value (log scale) (across). 70 teams with data.

Up and right are always better: metrics where lower is better (like ranks or points allowed) run in reverse. Dashed lines are the averages of the teams shown; the solid line is the trend, what a team usually gets on the up axis for its spot across. The gray band is a normal miss: everything within 0.3 wins of the line, the size of a typical team's miss. Teams inside the band are doing about what the line expects; teams outside it are the real over- and underperformers. Tap or click a team to open it in Head to head.

What this shows

Each team's NIL roster value against the wins its roster is worth on paper. The line is what a given payroll usually buys. Above it, the roster is worth more wins than its price: a bargain. Below it, the school is paying for wins the roster isn't worth.

There is a strong relationship here (r = +0.84; r runs from −1 to +1, and positive means the two go together): teams higher on Roster value tend to be better on Roster RECEIPTS. Roster value accounts for about 71% of the differences in Roster RECEIPTS across the 70 teams shown.

50 of 70 teams (71%) land inside the gray band, within 0.3 wins of the line: they're doing about what you'd expect. 10 are clearly above it and 10 clearly below; those are the real over- and underperformers.

Bargain rosters: Alabama (+0.9 wins), California (+0.6 wins), Georgia (+0.6 wins). Overpriced rosters: Indiana (−0.9 wins), Michigan State (−0.6 wins), Texas Tech (−0.6 wins).

SEC: 5 clearly above the line, 11 inside the gray band, 0 clearly below (average +0.2 wins). Best: Alabama (+0.9 wins). Worst: Vanderbilt (−0.3 wins).

Big 12: 0 clearly above the line, 11 inside the gray band, 5 clearly below (average −0.2 wins). Best: Baylor (+0.2 wins). Worst: Texas Tech (−0.6 wins).

Where the data comes from. Roster RECEIPTS: our split of every game result, games through Oct 24, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Oct 27, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production. Roster value: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates.

Bargain rosters

  1. Alabama +0.9 wins vs. trend
  2. California +0.6 wins vs. trend
  3. Georgia +0.6 wins vs. trend
  4. USC +0.6 wins vs. trend
  5. Oregon State +0.5 wins vs. trend
  6. South Carolina +0.5 wins vs. trend

Overpriced rosters

  1. Indiana −0.9 wins vs. trend
  2. Michigan State −0.6 wins vs. trend
  3. Texas Tech −0.6 wins vs. trend
  4. Oklahoma State −0.6 wins vs. trend
  5. Cincinnati −0.5 wins vs. trend
  6. Iowa State −0.5 wins vs. trend

About the stats on this chart

What is roster value?

Estimated NIL market value of the whole roster, from The NIL Standard. Independent estimates, not reported deals. More money isn't marked better.

Why does roster value matter?

Roster value is the money side of the talent story. It tells you what a team paid for, not what it's getting.

Where does the roster value data come from?

From The NIL Standard, preseason estimates.

What is roster RECEIPTS?

Roster RECEIPTS: the extra wins a team as good as its roster gets. Roster strength is SP+ predicted from the 247Sports talent composite and returning production.

Why does roster RECEIPTS matter?

RECEIPTS splits a team's wins into what the roster should have produced and what the coaching added. It's the closest we can get to grading coaches with numbers.

Where does the roster RECEIPTS data come from?

From our split of every game result, games through Oct 24, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Oct 27, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.