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Good vs. earned: 2026 College Football Chart

College Football Charts
Data updatedOct 30, 2026

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Good vs. earned

PRIME SOR (up) against SP+ overall (across). 138 teams.

Up and right are always better: metrics where lower is better (like ranks or points allowed) run in reverse. Dashed lines are the averages of the teams shown; the solid line is the trend, what a team usually gets on the up axis for its spot across. The gray band is a normal miss: everything within 0.8 pts of the line, the size of a typical team's miss. Teams inside the band are doing about what the line expects; teams outside it are the real over- and underperformers. Tap or click a team to open it in Head to head.

What this shows

Is a team as good as its record? SP+ measures how well a team plays; strength of record (from PRIME) measures what its wins and losses are worth against its schedule. The line is the record a team usually has for how well it plays. Above it, a team has earned more than its play suggests, often by winning close games. Below it, a team is playing better than its record shows.

There is a strong relationship here (r = +0.90; r runs from −1 to +1, and positive means the two go together): teams better on SP+ overall tend to be better on PRIME SOR. SP+ overall accounts for about 81% of the differences in PRIME SOR across the 138 teams shown.

94 of 138 teams (68%) land inside the gray band, within 0.8 pts of the line: they're doing about what you'd expect. 22 are clearly above it and 22 clearly below; those are the real over- and underperformers.

Earned more than they have played: Kentucky (+2.4 pts), UTSA (+1.8 pts), Stanford (+1.8 pts). Playing better than their record: Hawai'i (−2.0 pts), Sam Houston (−1.8 pts), Navy (−1.8 pts).

SEC: 4 clearly above the line, 11 inside the gray band, 1 clearly below (average +0.3 pts). Best: Kentucky (+2.4 pts). Worst: Georgia (−1.2 pts).

Big 12: 3 clearly above the line, 11 inside the gray band, 2 clearly below (average +0.1 pts). Best: West Virginia (+1.2 pts). Worst: TCU (−1.4 pts).

Where the data comes from. PRIME SOR: PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Oct 30, 2026. SP+ overall: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Oct 27, 2026.

Earned more than they have played

  1. Kentucky +2.4 pts vs. trend
  2. UTSA +1.8 pts vs. trend
  3. Stanford +1.8 pts vs. trend
  4. UCLA +1.6 pts vs. trend
  5. North Texas +1.5 pts vs. trend
  6. Ball State +1.3 pts vs. trend

Playing better than their record

  1. Hawai'i −2.0 pts vs. trend
  2. Sam Houston −1.8 pts vs. trend
  3. Navy −1.8 pts vs. trend
  4. Nevada −1.7 pts vs. trend
  5. Rice −1.6 pts vs. trend
  6. Temple −1.5 pts vs. trend

About the stats on this chart

What is SP+ overall?

Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field. Higher is better.

Why does SP+ overall matter?

It's the best single number for how good a team is right now, schedule and all. If you only look at one rating, look at this one.

Where does the SP+ overall data come from?

From SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Oct 27, 2026.

What is PRIME SOR?

Strength of record: wins above what an average FBS team would expect against the same schedule. It grades the resume.

Why does PRIME SOR matter?

Strength of record asks whether a team's wins are impressive, not whether the team is good. It's the closest thing we have to how the committee thinks.

Where does the PRIME SOR data come from?

From PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Oct 30, 2026.