This week's picks

AP Top 25 vs. SP+: Overrated and Underrated Teams, 2026

College Football Charts
Data updatedOct 30, 2026

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Poll vs. reality

AP rank, counting votes (up) against SP+ rank (across). 30 teams in the AP Top 25 or the SP+ top 25.

Up and right are always better: metrics where lower is better (like ranks or points allowed) run in reverse. Dashed lines are the averages of the teams shown; the solid line is the diagonal, where the two are equal. The gray band is a normal miss: everything within 10 spots of the line, the size of a typical team's miss. Teams inside the band are doing about what the line expects; teams outside it are the real over- and underperformers. Tap or click a team to open it in Head to head.

What this shows

Do the polls match the numbers? Each dot is a team in this week's AP Top 25 or the SP+ top 25, placed by its AP rank and its SP+ rank. Teams outside the AP Top 25 are ranked by their votes, and teams with no votes at all share the spot just past the last team that got any. On the diagonal, both rank a team the same. Above it, voters rank a team higher than SP+ does, which usually means a strong record built on close wins or a soft schedule. Below it, SP+ rates a team higher than the voters do, usually one with a loss or two to good opponents.

There is a moderate relationship here (r = +0.51; r runs from −1 to +1, and positive means the two go together): teams better on SP+ rank tend to be better on AP rank, counting votes. SP+ rank accounts for about 26% of the differences in AP rank, counting votes across the 30 teams shown.

20 of 30 teams (67%) land inside the gray band, within 10 spots of the diagonal: they're doing about what you'd expect. 5 are clearly above it and 5 clearly below; those are the real over- and underperformers.

Voters rank them higher than SP+: Kentucky (22 spots higher), Wisconsin (15 spots higher), Florida (14 spots higher). SP+ ranks them higher than voters: Oregon (23 spots higher), Nebraska (20 spots higher), USC (13 spots higher).

SEC: 2 clearly above the diagonal, 6 inside the gray band, 1 clearly below (on average, voters have them 1 spot higher than SP+). Voters like Kentucky most (22 spots higher than SP+) and LSU least (12 spots lower).

Big 12: 0 clearly above the diagonal, 6 inside the gray band, 0 clearly below (on average, voters have them 0 spots higher than SP+). Voters like BYU most (5 spots higher than SP+) and Arizona least (8 spots lower).

Where the data comes from. AP rank, counting votes: the AP poll, released Oct 25, 2026. SP+ rank: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Oct 27, 2026.

Voters rank them higher than SP+

  1. Kentucky +22 spots
  2. Wisconsin +15 spots
  3. Florida +14 spots
  4. Wake Forest +11 spots
  5. UCLA +10 spots
  6. Boise State +9 spots

SP+ ranks them higher than voters

  1. Oregon −23 spots
  2. Nebraska −20 spots
  3. USC −13 spots
  4. LSU −12 spots
  5. Louisville −10 spots
  6. Arizona −8 spots

About the stats on this chart

Where does the SP+ rank data come from?

From SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Oct 27, 2026.

Where does the AP rank, counting votes data come from?

From the AP poll, released Oct 25, 2026.