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College Football Expected Wins vs. Actual Record, 2026

College Football Charts
Data updatedOct 31, 2026

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Record vs. expected wins

Wins (up) against SP+ expected wins so far (across). 138 teams.

Up and right are always better: metrics where lower is better (like ranks or points allowed) run in reverse. Dashed lines are the averages of the teams shown; the solid line is the diagonal, where the two are equal. The gray band is a normal miss: everything within 0.8 wins of the line, the size of a typical team's miss. Teams inside the band are doing about what the line expects; teams outside it are the real over- and underperformers. Tap or click a team to open it in Head to head.

What this shows

Every game is turned into a win chance using SP+, and those chances are added up into the wins a team should have by now. Above the diagonal, a team has won more than expected, usually by winning close games. Below it, a team has lost games it was favored to win.

There is a strong relationship here (r = +0.86; r runs from −1 to +1, and positive means the two go together): teams better on SP+ expected wins so far tend to be better on Wins. SP+ expected wins so far accounts for about 75% of the differences in Wins across the 138 teams shown.

92 of 138 teams (67%) land inside the gray band, within 0.8 wins of the diagonal: they're doing about what you'd expect. 21 are clearly above it and 25 clearly below; those are the real over- and underperformers.

Won more than expected: Kentucky (+2.4 wins), Stanford (+1.8 wins), UTSA (+1.7 wins). Won less than expected: Navy (−2.0 wins), Nevada (−1.9 wins), TCU (−1.6 wins).

SEC: 5 clearly above the diagonal, 10 inside the gray band, 1 clearly below (average +0.3 wins). Best: Kentucky (+2.4 wins). Worst: LSU (−1.2 wins).

Big 12: 3 clearly above the diagonal, 10 inside the gray band, 3 clearly below (average +0.1 wins). Best: West Virginia (+1.4 wins). Worst: TCU (−1.6 wins).

Where the data comes from. Wins: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Oct 24, 2026. SP+ expected wins so far: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Oct 24, 2026.

Won more than expected

  1. Kentucky +2.4 wins
  2. Stanford +1.8 wins
  3. UTSA +1.7 wins
  4. Middle Tennessee +1.5 wins
  5. UCLA +1.4 wins
  6. West Virginia +1.4 wins

Won less than expected

  1. Navy −2.0 wins
  2. Nevada −1.9 wins
  3. TCU −1.6 wins
  4. Hawai'i −1.6 wins
  5. Georgia Tech −1.6 wins
  6. Kennesaw State −1.6 wins

About the stats on this chart

Where does the SP+ expected wins so far data come from?

From play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Oct 24, 2026.

Where does the wins data come from?

From play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Oct 24, 2026.