This week's picks

Good or lucky?: 2026 College Football Chart

College Football Charts
Data updatedOct 31, 2026

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Good or lucky?

Coach RECEIPTS (up) against Luck RECEIPTS (across). 138 teams.

Up and right are always better: metrics where lower is better (like ranks or points allowed) run in reverse. Dashed lines are the averages of the teams shown and split the chart into four groups. There's no trend line or gray band here: the chart compares two separate skills, so no spot is "expected." The lists rank teams on both skills together. Tap or click a team to open it in Head to head.

What this shows

Who's for real? Across is luck: wins from close games and bounces, against what the team's play says it should have. Up is coaching: wins from playing better than the roster should. Top left is well coached and unlucky, so the record undersells them: breakouts coming. Bottom right is lucky and not well coached: the frauds. Luck tends to even out; coaching tends to stick.

There is almost no relationship here (r = +0.06): knowing a team's Luck RECEIPTS tells you little about its Coach RECEIPTS.

Split by the averages: Good and lucky 32, Better than their record 33, Frauds 39, Snakebit 34.

Good and lucky: Kentucky (1st and 38th), Air Force (40th and 2nd), Army (52nd and 1st). Snakebit: Sacramento State (109th and 138th), Akron (118th and 137th), Northern Illinois (131st and 131st). Ranks are among the 138 teams shown, Luck RECEIPTS first, then Coach RECEIPTS.

SEC: 5 of 16 in Good and lucky, 2 in Snakebit. Top of the list: Kentucky (1st and 38th of 138).

Big 12: 7 of 16 in Good and lucky, 0 in Snakebit. Top of the list: BYU (22nd and 8th of 138).

Where the data comes from. Coach RECEIPTS: our split of every game result, games through Oct 24, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Oct 27, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production. Luck RECEIPTS: our split of every game result, games through Oct 24, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Oct 27, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.

Good and lucky

  1. Kentucky 1st and 38th of 138
  2. Air Force 40th and 2nd of 138
  3. Army 52nd and 1st of 138
  4. Indiana 43rd and 4th of 138
  5. UCLA 5th and 24th of 138
  6. BYU 22nd and 8th of 138

Snakebit

  1. Sacramento State 109th and 138th of 138
  2. Akron 118th and 137th of 138
  3. Northern Illinois 131st and 131st of 138
  4. Sam Houston 129th and 127th of 138
  5. Hawai'i 135th and 110th of 138
  6. Rice 123rd and 129th of 138

About the stats on this chart

What is luck RECEIPTS?

Luck RECEIPTS: actual wins minus the wins the team's SP+ says it should have. Close games and bounces. It tends to even out. 1.5 or more either way gets a Luck watch tag.

Where does the luck RECEIPTS data come from?

From our split of every game result, games through Oct 24, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Oct 27, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.

What is coach RECEIPTS?

Coach RECEIPTS: wins from playing better (plus) or worse (minus) than the roster says the team should. Covers development, scheme and transfers, plus injuries. Service academies get extra credit because recruiting rankings undersell their rosters.

Why does coach RECEIPTS matter?

RECEIPTS splits a team's wins into what the roster should have produced and what the coaching added. It's the closest we can get to grading coaches with numbers.

Where does the coach RECEIPTS data come from?

From our split of every game result, games through Oct 24, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Oct 27, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.