This week's picks

Ahead of the sticks vs. behind them

College Football Charts
Data updatedOct 31, 2026

Share as an image

Image style

Ahead of the sticks vs. behind them

Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) (up) against Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) (across). 138 teams.

Up and right are always better: metrics where lower is better (like ranks or points allowed) run in reverse. Dashed lines are the averages of the teams shown and split the chart into four groups. There's no trend line or gray band here: the chart compares two separate skills, so no spot is "expected." The lists rank teams on both skills together. Tap or click a team to open it in Head to head.

What this shows

Standard downs are the ones an offense expects to win (1st and 10, 2nd and 5). Passing downs are the hole it dug (2nd and 9, 3rd and 6). Right stays on schedule; up digs out when it falls behind.

There is a moderate relationship here (r = +0.44; r runs from −1 to +1, and positive means the two go together): teams better on Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) tend to be better on Success rate, passing downs (adjusted). Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) accounts for about 20% of the differences in Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) across the 138 teams shown.

Split by the averages: On schedule and clutch 44, Lives on 3rd and long 23, Good early, folds late 23, Behind and stuck 48.

On schedule and clutch: USC (6th and 2nd), LSU (9th and 3rd), Houston (5th and 5th). Behind and stuck: Old Dominion (138th and 114th), Tulane (137th and 129th), Washington State (134th and 135th). Ranks are among the 138 teams shown, Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) first, then Success rate, passing downs (adjusted).

Pac-12: 4 of 8 in On schedule and clutch, 3 in Behind and stuck. Top of the list: Texas State (40th and 1st of 138).

Mountain West: 1 of 10 in On schedule and clutch, 5 in Behind and stuck. Top of the list: Air Force (7th and 84th of 138).

Where the data comes from. Success rate, passing downs (adjusted): CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Oct 24, 2026. Success rate, standard downs (adjusted): CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Oct 24, 2026.

On schedule and clutch

  1. USC 6th and 2nd of 138
  2. LSU 9th and 3rd of 138
  3. Houston 5th and 5th of 138
  4. Ole Miss 2nd and 11th of 138
  5. Texas State 40th and 1st of 138
  6. Northwestern 19th and 6th of 138

Behind and stuck

  1. Old Dominion 138th and 114th of 138
  2. Tulane 137th and 129th of 138
  3. Washington State 134th and 135th of 138
  4. Buffalo 133rd and 133rd of 138
  5. Kent State 136th and 125th of 138
  6. UTEP 132nd and 127th of 138

About the stats on this chart

Where does the success rate, standard downs data come from?

From CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Oct 24, 2026.

What is success rate, passing downs?

Success rate on passing downs (2nd and long, 3rd and medium or longer), adjusted for opponents. Shows who escapes bad spots.

Where does the success rate, passing downs data come from?

From CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Oct 24, 2026.