Mississippi State football stats, 2026
4–3 (2–3 SEC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.
Mississippi State football rankings: how good is Mississippi State?
SP+ (52nd) and Elo (58th) see a middle-of-the-pack team. PRIME has it 28th. PRIME grades each possession, so it's higher on how Mississippi State's drives have gone than the others. Mississippi State has 4 wins on 2.8 SP+ expected wins, so it's been lucky, and has played one of the hardest schedules so far (6th in PRIME).
What is Mississippi State good at, and what is it bad at?
Good at
- Mississippi State stays on schedule: a 48.2% success rate, opponent-adjusted, 11th in FBS.
- Mississippi State runs the ball well: 0.12 EPA per rush, opponent-adjusted, 25th in FBS.
Bad at
- Mississippi State can't get off the field on 3rd down: opponents convert 45.1% of their 3rd downs, 113th of 138.
- Mississippi State doesn't force turnovers: 0.9 takeaways a game, 112th of 138.
- Mississippi State gives up sacks: sacked on 7.5% of dropbacks, 106th of 134.
Good at means top 25 in FBS; bad at means 91st or worse. Turnovers swing a lot from week to week.
Mississippi State at Texas
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: Mississippi State 20, Texas 37. The numbers' pick: Texas (88%).
Mississippi State football schedule, 2026
Next: at Texas, Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET on ESPN.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result or kickoff (ET), TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sat, Sep 5 | vs. UL Monroe | W 62–13 |
| 2 | Sat, Sep 12 | at Minnesota | W 38–13 |
| 3 | Sat, Sep 19 | at South Carolina | W 41–34 |
| 4 | Sat, Sep 26 | vs. Missouri | W 31–24 |
| 5 | Sat, Oct 3 | vs. Alabama | L 23–56 |
| 7 | Sat, Oct 17 | at LSU | L 0–31 |
| 8 | Sat, Oct 24 | vs. Oklahoma | L 15–23 |
| 9 | Sat, Oct 31 | at Texas | 7:30 PM ET, ESPN |
| 10 | Sat, Nov 7 | vs. Vanderbilt | TBA, SEC Network |
| 11 | Sat, Nov 14 | vs. Auburn | TBA |
| 12 | Sat, Nov 21 | vs. Tennessee Tech | 1:00 PM ET, SECN+ |
| 13 | Fri, Nov 27 | at Ole Miss | 12:00 PM ET, ABC |
Kickoff times are Eastern. TV from CollegeFootballData.com; networks are set a week or two ahead.
Mississippi State's 2026 record: the wins and losses
- Best win
- vs. Missouri (5–2, SP+ 18th, AP No. 23), 31–24, Week 4
- Worst loss
- vs. Oklahoma (4–3, SP+ 33rd), 15–23, Week 8
- Biggest win
- vs. UL Monroe (1–6, SP+ 133rd), 62–13, Week 1
- Closest win
- at South Carolina (4–3, SP+ 28th), 41–34, Week 3
Wins (4)
- vs. Missouri 5–2, SP+ 18th, AP No. 23 31–24
- at South Carolina 4–3, SP+ 28th 41–34
- at Minnesota 5–2, SP+ 57th 38–13
- vs. UL Monroe 1–6, SP+ 133rd 62–13
| Record | |
|---|---|
| Against the AP Top 25 | 1–2 |
| Against the SP+ top 25 | 1–2 |
| Against the SP+ top 50 | 2–3 |
| Against Power 4 teams and Notre Dame | 3–3 |
| Against teams with winning records | 3–3 |
| In one-score games (8 points or fewer) | 2–1 |
| At home | 2–2 |
| Away | 2–1 |
Opponents are judged by where they stand now: their record, their SP+ rank out of 138 and the latest AP poll. Wins and losses are listed best opponent first. Strength of record and schedule are PRIME's, on its points scale, where higher is better.
How many championships has Mississippi State won?
Mississippi State hasn't won a major-college national championship.
Mississippi State has won 1 conference championship, most recently the SEC in 1941.
- SEC
- 1: 1941
Through the 2025 season. National titles are the ones the school claims; conference titles include shared ones. From each program's records as collected on Wikipedia.
Mississippi State offense: stats and national ranks
| Stat | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.0 | 61st |
| Yards per play | 6.36 | 55th |
| Success rate | 45.5% | 49th |
| Explosive play rate | 14.2% | 31st |
| Yards per carry | 5.70 | 35th |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.50 | 76th |
| Sack rate allowed | 7.5% | 106th |
| 3rd down conversion | 39.2% | 75th |
Mississippi State defense: stats and national ranks
| Stat | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed | 27.7 | 102nd |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.25 | 96th |
| Success rate allowed | 46.2% | 114th |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.8% | 61st |
| Yards per carry allowed | 4.44 | 44th |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 8.39 | 107th |
| Sack rate | 6.3% | 66th |
| 3rd downs allowed | 45.1% | 113th |
How good is Mississippi State's offensive line?
Big Uglies, our offensive line rating, has Mississippi State at 50.1, 71st of 138 (50 is average). It's 25th in adjusted line yards per carry (3.10), gets stuffed on 20.1% of runs (102nd fewest) and converts 71.4% of short-yardage runs (75th).
| Stat | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Big Uglies: offensive line | 50.1 | 71st |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 3.10 | 25th |
| Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line) | 20.1% | 102nd |
| Power success (short yardage) | 71.4% | 75th |
| Sack rate allowed | 7.5% | 106th |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.31 | 24th |
How good is Mississippi State's defensive line?
Big Uglies has Mississippi State's defensive front at 44.4, 103rd of 138. It gives up 3.03 adjusted line yards per carry (94th), stuffs 14.6% of runs (121st) and gets a sack on 6.3% of dropbacks (66th).
| Stat | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Big Uglies: defensive front | 44.4 | 103rd |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.03 | 94th |
| Stuff rate (defense) | 14.6% | 121st |
| Power success allowed | 78.3% | 111th |
| Sack rate | 6.3% | 66th |
| Front-seven havoc | 8.6% | 94th |
Are Mississippi State's backs actually good, or is it all the offensive line?
Mississippi State's line is 25th of 138 in adjusted line yards per carry (3.10), the part of each run it earns. Its backs are 24th in adjusted open-field yards (1.31), the part they earn past 10 yards. Both: the line opens holes and the backs finish runs.
Mississippi State football players: the stat leaders
Amaree Williams (EDGE), Amarien Jefferson (CB), Anthony Evans III (WR), Dre Riley (S), Fluff Bothwell (RB), J.J. Hill (RB), Jalen Smith (LB), Jaray Bledsoe (DL), Jardin Gilbert (S), Kalvin Dinkins (DL), Kamario Taylor (QB), Kendel Dolby (S), Kolin Wilson (RB), Kyle Rushing (LS), Marcus Williams (S), Marquis Johnson (WR), Parker Puckett (QB), Sam West (TE), Sanfrisco Magee (WR), Trevion Williams (DL), Tyler Lockhart (LB), Tyshun Willis (LB), Will Whitson (DL), Xavier Gayten (RB), Zion Ragins (WR).
Mississippi State football results, 2026
| Week | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs. UL Monroe | W 62–13 |
| 2 | at Minnesota | W 38–13 |
| 3 | at South Carolina | W 41–34 |
| 4 | vs. Missouri | W 31–24 |
| 5 | vs. Alabama | L 23–56 |
| 7 | at LSU | L 0–31 |
| 8 | vs. Oklahoma | L 15–23 |
Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Mississippi State with any team.
Questions about Mississippi State
What is Mississippi State's record?
Mississippi State is 4–3, 2–3 in the SEC, with games through Oct 24, 2026.
Is Mississippi State good this year?
Mississippi State is 52nd of 138 in SP+, Bill Connelly's rating (middle of the pack), 28th in PRIME and 58th in Elo. They aren't in the AP Top 25.
Who does Mississippi State play this week?
Mississippi State visits Texas, Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET. The numbers' pick: Texas.
What is Mississippi State's best win?
Missouri, 31–24 in Week 4. Missouri is 5–2 and 18th in SP+.
What is Mississippi State's 2026 football schedule?
Week 1: vs. UL Monroe (W 62–13); Week 2: at Minnesota (W 38–13); Week 3: at South Carolina (W 41–34); Week 4: vs. Missouri (W 31–24); Week 5: vs. Alabama (L 23–56); Week 7: at LSU (L 0–31); Week 8: vs. Oklahoma (L 15–23); Week 9: at Texas; Week 10: vs. Vanderbilt; Week 11: vs. Auburn; Week 12: vs. Tennessee Tech; Week 13: at Ole Miss.
When does Mississippi State play next, and what channel is it on?
At Texas, Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET, at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. It's on ESPN.
What was the score of Mississippi State's last game?
Mississippi State lost to Oklahoma 23–15 on Sat, Oct 24 at home.
Who is Mississippi State's quarterback?
Kamario Taylor has thrown the most for Mississippi State this season: 1,466 passing yards through Oct 24, 2026.
Where does Mississippi State play its home games?
Davis Wade Stadium.
Where is Mississippi State ranked?
Unranked in the latest AP poll. 52nd of 138 in SP+, 28th in PRIME and 58th in Elo.
How many national championships has Mississippi State won?
Mississippi State hasn't won a major-college national championship.
How many conference championships has Mississippi State won?
Mississippi State has won 1 conference championship, most recently the SEC in 1941. Mississippi State has 1 SEC title.
How good is Mississippi State?
SP+ (52nd) and Elo (58th) see a middle-of-the-pack team. PRIME has it 28th. PRIME grades each possession, so it's higher on how Mississippi State's drives have gone than the others. Mississippi State has 4 wins on 2.8 SP+ expected wins, so it's been lucky, and has played one of the hardest schedules so far (6th in PRIME).
What is Mississippi State good at?
Mississippi State stays on schedule: a 48.2% success rate, opponent-adjusted, 11th in FBS. Mississippi State runs the ball well: 0.12 EPA per rush, opponent-adjusted, 25th in FBS.
What is Mississippi State bad at?
Mississippi State can't get off the field on 3rd down: opponents convert 45.1% of their 3rd downs, 113th of 138. Mississippi State doesn't force turnovers: 0.9 takeaways a game, 112th of 138. Mississippi State gives up sacks: sacked on 7.5% of dropbacks, 106th of 134.
How much has Mississippi State spent on its roster?
The NIL Standard's preseason estimate puts Mississippi State's roster at $21.2 million, 42nd of the 70 FBS rosters it values and 16th of 16 in the SEC, where the average is $30.3 million. That's $5.3 million per win so far (4 wins). Its 2026 transfer class is 28 players, 3 of them four- or five-stars, per 247Sports.
How good is Mississippi State's offensive line?
Big Uglies, our offensive line rating, has Mississippi State at 50.1, 71st of 138 (50 is average). It's 25th in adjusted line yards per carry (3.10), gets stuffed on 20.1% of runs (102nd fewest) and converts 71.4% of short-yardage runs (75th).
How good is Mississippi State's defensive line?
Big Uglies has Mississippi State's defensive front at 44.4, 103rd of 138. It gives up 3.03 adjusted line yards per carry (94th), stuffs 14.6% of runs (121st) and gets a sack on 6.3% of dropbacks (66th).
Are Mississippi State's backs actually good, or is it all the offensive line?
Mississippi State's line is 25th of 138 in adjusted line yards per carry (3.10), the part of each run it earns. Its backs are 24th in adjusted open-field yards (1.31), the part they earn past 10 yards. Both: the line opens holes and the backs finish runs.
Who is Mississippi State's head coach?
Jeff Lebby, since 2024.
College football, 2026 season
Nerd shit for
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About
Sources and methods
Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
Where the data comes from
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
How we turn it into projections
- Projected score. Each team's SP+ offense, plus how far the opponent's SP+ defense is from average, plus special teams. The home team gets half of a 2.5-point home edge added and the visitor half subtracted.
- Win chance. The projected margin turned into a probability, assuming games usually land within about 14 points of the projection. A 0-point margin is 50%; 14 points is about 84%.
- The three ratings. SP+ is built from every play this season. PRIME is a possession-efficiency rating. Elo uses only final scores and carries over from year to year, with 55 Elo points of home edge.
- The numbers' pick. The team at least two of the three ratings favor, with our confidence the average of their three win chances for that team. On the game cards, a pick is a lock when all three favor the same team and the average win chance is 80% or more, a coin flip when it's under 55%, and a lean otherwise. Injuries can drop the tier: each key player out counts by what he does for his team (a starting quarterback is 2 points, the feature back or top receiver half a point, doubtful counts half), the other side's injuries offset, and 1 point drops a tier, 2 points two. The game page shows it as an injury alert. Nobody overrides the numbers' pick.
- CFB Charts Top 25. SP+, PRIME and strength of record, each converted to a common scale and averaged.
- Playoff picture. The 2026-27 rules: automatic bids for the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions (the current conference leader stands in until the title games) and for the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top 12. The rest are at-large teams by the chosen rating, and all 12 are seeded straight by that rating, so the top four get the byes. Once the committee's rankings are out (first release Tuesday, Nov. 3), they become the default ranking.
- Missing data. When a team's play-by-play is clearly incomplete (fewer than 45 offensive plays a game), we hide its offense stats instead of showing bad numbers.
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Glossary
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
Ratings and advanced stats
What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
- SP+
- Bill Connelly's rating, built from play-by-play efficiency and explosiveness and adjusted for who each team played. The number is how many points better than an average FBS team a team is on a neutral field. SP+ 20 beats SP+ 10 by about 10.
- PRIME
- A rating built possession by possession: how well a team turns drives into points and keeps opponents from doing the same, adjusted for opponents. Zero is an average FBS team.
- Elo
- A results-only rating. Every team has a number, 1500 is average, and the winner takes points from the loser after every game. Beat a great team and you take a lot. Beat a bad one and you take a few. It carries part of last season over, so it's slow to catch a team that changed.
- Strength of record
- How impressive a record is, given who a team played: how many more games it won than an average team would have against the same schedule. It grades the resume. SP+ and PRIME grade how good the team is.
- Strength of schedule
- How hard a team's opponents have been so far.
- Opponent-adjusted
- Corrected for who a team played. Hanging 50 on an FCS team counts for less than hanging 30 on Georgia.
- EPA (expected points added)
- Every down, distance and spot on the field is worth some number of points on average. 1st and 10 at the opponent's 20 is worth a lot more than 3rd and 15 at your own 10. EPA is how much one play changed that number. A 50-yard bomb is a big plus. A pick-six is a very big minus.
- EPA per play
- A team's average EPA across all its plays. For an offense, above zero means it adds points and higher is better. For a defense, lower is better.
- Success rate
- The share of plays that keep an offense on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% of them on 2nd, all of them on 3rd and 4th. A 4-yard run on 1st and 10 is a success. A 4-yard run on 3rd and 6 isn't.
- Explosive play rate
- The share of plays that go for a run of 12 or more yards or a completion of 16 or more.
- Yards per play
- Total yards divided by plays: runs, passes and sacks.
- Sack rate
- Sacks divided by dropbacks. For an offense, lower is better. For a pass rush, higher is better.
- Turnover margin
- Takeaways (interceptions and fumbles recovered) minus giveaways (interceptions thrown and fumbles lost).
- RECEIPTS
- Record Explained: Coaching, Experience, Incoming talent, Pure luck and Toughness of Schedule. Where a team's wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. The record above or below .500 gets split four ways that add up to the real record: schedule (what an average team would win against that schedule), roster (the wins its talent and returning starters are worth on paper), coach (wins from playing better or worse than that roster) and luck (actual wins against the wins its SP+ says it should have). On team pages and in two charts.
- Schedule, Roster, Coach and Luck RECEIPTS
- The four parts of RECEIPTS. Schedule: what an average team would win against that schedule, minus .500. Roster: the extra wins from a roster this good on paper (247Sports talent and returning production). Coach: wins from playing better or worse than that roster should. Luck: actual wins against the wins SP+ expects. Recruiting rankings undersell the service academies, so their coaches get extra credit.
- Luck watch
- A tag for a team whose Luck RECEIPTS is 1.5 wins or more either way: "Lucky +2.4" or "Unlucky −1.6." Its record runs ahead of (or behind) how it's played, and lines and polls often follow records.
- Expected wins
- The wins a team should have, adding up its win chance in every game it played. Winning more than that usually means a lot of close wins, and close wins are mostly luck.
- Talent composite and blue-chip ratio
- 247Sports' score for a roster, built from every player's recruiting rating, with the best players counting most. The blue-chip ratio is the share of the roster that were 4- or 5-star recruits.
How we pick
How the picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
- Projected score
- Each team's SP+ offense, adjusted for how good the other team's defense is, plus special teams. The home team gets 2.5 points of home edge, split between the two scores.
- Win chance
- The projected margin turned into a percentage, assuming games usually land within about 14 points of the projection. A tie projection is 50%. A 14-point favorite is about 84%.
- The numbers' pick
- The team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. The confidence is the average of their three win chances. Nobody overrides it.
- Lock, Lean, Coin flip and Stay away
- How sure the numbers are about a straight-up pick. Lock: SP+, PRIME and Elo all favor the same team and the average win chance is 80% or more. Lean: the ratings favor the team, but not that strongly or not all three. Coin flip: the average win chance is under 55%. Stay away: injuries take the pick down. Key players count by what they do for the team: a starting quarterback out is 2 points, the feature back, top receiver or top pass rusher half a point, the No. 2 receiver or playmaker a quarter, and a short-handed line or secondary half a point. Doubtful counts half. When the picked team's points, minus the other side's, reach 1, the pick drops a tier (a Lock to a Lean, a Lean or Coin flip to Stay away); at 2 it drops two.
- Game of the week
- The one game to watch on Saturday: the best matchup on the board, by how good both teams are and how close the projection is.
- CFB Charts Top 25
- SP+, PRIME and strength of record, each put on the same scale and averaged. Nobody votes.
- Retro
- Monday's look back: every final score against what we projected, what we got right and what we got wrong.
Conferences and the playoff
Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
- FBS and FCS
- FBS is the top level of college football: the 138 teams on this site. FCS is the level below. When an FBS team plays an FCS team, it's usually a paid tune-up.
- Power 4
- The SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC. Notre Dame isn't in a conference, but we count it with the Power 4 wherever that matters.
- Group of 6
- Everyone else in FBS: the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt, plus the independents other than Notre Dame. The highest-ranked team from those six conferences gets an automatic playoff bid.
- Automatic bid
- A guaranteed playoff spot. The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions get one, and so does the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt.
- At-large
- A playoff spot earned by ranking high enough without an automatic bid. Notre Dame is in if it's in the top 12.
- First-round bye
- Seeds 1 through 4 skip the first round. Seeds 5 through 12 play first-round games at the higher seed's stadium.
Nothing matches that. Try a shorter word.
For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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About College Football Charts
College Football Charts is a college football stats site: a pick for every FBS game, head to heads across 75+ stats, the playoff picture, and charts you can bend to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
What's here
Every FBS team, player and game gets its own page, with national ranks, the ratings people argue about (SP+, PRIME and Elo) and charts you can share. The rivalry pages carry the series history. The tools let you build your own Top 25, your own 12-team playoff field and your own charts.
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Where the numbers come from
We don't make the ratings; we put them side by side. SP+ is Bill Connelly's. SUPLEX is Nate Tice's. The play-by-play comes from CollegeFootballData.com and cfbfastR. The full list, and how we turn it into picks, is on Sources and methods.
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Betting advice. The line shows up because it's part of the story of a game, not because we want you to bet it.
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- 12 teams, under the 2026-27 rules. Automatic bids go to the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions, and to the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. Until the title games, each conference's current leader stands in as its champion.
- Notre Dame is in if you rank it in your top 12. Everyone else is at-large.
- Seeds go straight by your order. Seeds 1 to 4 get first-round byes; 5 to 12 play first-round games at the higher seed.
- The builder won't let you remove a Power 4 champion or your last team from outside the Power 4.
Drag a team by its handle (⋮⋮) to reseed it; with a keyboard, focus the handle and use the up and down arrow keys. Pick a different team from a row's menu to swap it in. Your field is saved in this browser.
Your 12 seeds
Your bracket
What's in it
- Thursday: the picks. The week's best games, the upset we like, projected scores for the big ones, and charts worth arguing about.
- Monday: the retro. How the picks did, the record so far, what we got wrong and why.
- Every issue, on the site. Past issues will live here, so you can link anyone to them.
The first issue is coming soon.
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Beating the trend
Trailing the trend
Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
This week
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Last week
All-time picks record
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? The numbers' pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. The numbers' and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Week by week
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
Over time
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What this shows
Rank
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What this shows
Compare
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SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Conference depth
Projected bracket
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The field and the bubble
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How the field is built
- 12 teams. Five get in automatically: the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions, plus the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt (champion or not).
- Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top 12.
- At-large. The remaining spots go to the highest-ranked teams left. If an automatic qualifier ranks outside the top 12, it takes the last at-large spot.
- Seeding follows the ranking, as it has since 2025. A conference champion isn't guaranteed a bye.
- Champions mid-season. "Current conference leader" uses the best conference record so far, with ties broken by the chosen rating. "Highest-rated team" picks the best-rated team in each conference instead.
- Composite averages SP+, PRIME and strength of record after putting each on a common scale.
- This is a projection from today's numbers. The real field is chosen by a committee on Dec. 6, after conference title games.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.