Air Force football stats, 2026
5–2 (3–2 Mountain West). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.
Air Force football rankings: how good is Air Force?
SP+, PRIME and Elo agree: Air Force is a middle-of-the-pack team (73rd, 68th and 81st). Air Force has played one of the softest schedules so far (124th in PRIME).
What is Air Force good at, and what is it bad at?
Good at
- Air Force's offensive line wins up front: a Big Uglies rating of 67.7, where 50 is average, 1st in FBS.
- Air Force runs the ball well: 0.17 EPA per rush, opponent-adjusted, 3rd in FBS.
- Air Force stays on schedule: a 47.2% success rate, opponent-adjusted, 15th in FBS.
- Air Force converts on 3rd down: a 47.0% conversion rate, 25th in FBS.
Bad at
- Air Force doesn't hit big plays: 9.5% of its plays are explosive (runs of 12+ yards, passes of 16+), 120th of 134.
- Air Force's defensive front gets pushed around: a Big Uglies rating of 44.1, where 50 is average, 105th of 138.
- Air Force's passing game struggles: 0.15 EPA per pass, opponent-adjusted, 98th of 138.
Good at means top 25 in FBS; bad at means 91st or worse. Turnovers swing a lot from week to week.
UConn at Air Force
Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Air Force 31, UConn 30. The numbers' pick: Air Force (60%).
Air Force football schedule, 2026
Next: vs. UConn, Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET on MW+.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result or kickoff (ET), TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sat, Sep 5 | vs. Duquesne | W 34–0 |
| 2 | Sat, Sep 12 | vs. North Dakota State | L 32–38 |
| 4 | Sat, Sep 26 | at Nevada | W 36–33 |
| 5 | Sat, Oct 3 | vs. Navy | W 14–9 |
| 6 | Sat, Oct 10 | at Northern Illinois | W 28–7 |
| 7 | Sat, Oct 17 | vs. UNLV | W 41–31 |
| 8 | Fri, Oct 23 | at Wyoming | L 14–28 |
| 9 | Sat, Oct 31 | vs. UConn | 3:00 PM ET, MW+ |
| 10 | Sat, Nov 7 | at Army | 7:30 PM ET, CBS |
| 11 | Sat, Nov 14 | vs. San José State | 7:00 PM ET, CBSSN |
| 12 | Fri, Nov 20 | vs. UTEP | 8:00 PM ET, ESPN Unlmtd, The CW Network, CW |
| 13 | Sat, Nov 28 | at New Mexico | 4:30 PM ET, ESPN Unlmtd, The CW Network, CW |
Kickoff times are Eastern. TV from CollegeFootballData.com; networks are set a week or two ahead.
Air Force's 2026 record: the wins and losses
- Best win
- vs. Navy (2–5, SP+ 80th), 14–9, Week 5
- Worst loss
- at Wyoming (5–3, SP+ 98th), 14–28, Week 8
- Biggest win
- vs. Duquesne (FCS), 34–0, Week 1
- Closest win
- at Nevada (3–4, SP+ 89th), 36–33, Week 4
Wins (5)
- vs. Navy 2–5, SP+ 80th 14–9
- vs. UNLV 4–3, SP+ 83rd 41–31
- at Nevada 3–4, SP+ 89th 36–33
- at Northern Illinois 0–7, SP+ 137th 28–7
- vs. Duquesne FCS 34–0
Losses (2)
- vs. North Dakota State 6–2, SP+ 41st 32–38
- at Wyoming 5–3, SP+ 98th 14–28
| Record | |
|---|---|
| Against the SP+ top 50 | 0–1 |
| Against teams with winning records | 1–2 |
| In one-score games (8 points or fewer) | 2–1 |
| At home | 3–1 |
| Away | 2–1 |
| Against FCS teams | 1–0 |
Opponents are judged by where they stand now: their record, their SP+ rank out of 138 and the latest AP poll. Wins and losses are listed best opponent first. Strength of record and schedule are PRIME's, on its points scale, where higher is better.
How many championships has Air Force won?
Air Force hasn't won a major-college national championship.
Air Force has won 3 conference championships, most recently the WAC in 1998.
- WAC
- 3: 1985, 1995, 1998
Through the 2025 season. National titles are the ones the school claims; conference titles include shared ones. From each program's records as collected on Wikipedia.
Air Force offense: stats and national ranks
| Stat | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.4 | 70th |
| Yards per play | 5.26 | 122nd |
| Success rate | 47.0% | 33rd |
| Explosive play rate | 9.5% | 120th |
| Yards per carry | 5.41 | 51st |
| Yards per pass attempt | 4.88 | 132nd |
| Sack rate allowed | 4.9% | 57th |
| 3rd down conversion | 47.0% | 25th |
Air Force defense: stats and national ranks
| Stat | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed | 20.9 | 40th |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.48 | 108th |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9% | 91st |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5% | 79th |
| Yards per carry allowed | 5.28 | 97th |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 8.62 | 114th |
| Sack rate | 6.3% | 65th |
| 3rd downs allowed | 42.2% | 96th |
How good is Air Force's offensive line?
Big Uglies, our offensive line rating, has Air Force at 67.7, 1st of 138 (50 is average). It's 1st in adjusted line yards per carry (3.35), gets stuffed on 9.4% of runs (2nd fewest) and converts 84.4% of short-yardage runs (9th).
| Stat | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Big Uglies: offensive line | 67.7 | 1st |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 3.35 | 1st |
| Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line) | 9.4% | 2nd |
| Power success (short yardage) | 84.4% | 9th |
| Sack rate allowed | 4.9% | 57th |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.04 | 98th |
How good is Air Force's defensive line?
Big Uglies has Air Force's defensive front at 44.1, 105th of 138. It gives up 3.06 adjusted line yards per carry (100th), stuffs 16.2% of runs (103rd) and gets a sack on 6.3% of dropbacks (65th).
| Stat | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Big Uglies: defensive front | 44.1 | 105th |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.06 | 100th |
| Stuff rate (defense) | 16.2% | 103rd |
| Power success allowed | 73.7% | 87th |
| Sack rate | 6.3% | 65th |
| Front-seven havoc | 6.4% | 135th |
Are Air Force's backs actually good, or is it all the offensive line?
Air Force's line is 1st of 138 in adjusted line yards per carry (3.35), the part of each run it earns. Its backs are 98th in adjusted open-field yards (1.04), the part they earn past 10 yards. It's mostly the line: the backs aren't adding much once they're past it.
Air Force football players: the stat leaders
Alexander Perez (DB), Andrew Tillett (DL), Blake Fletcher (LB), Dallas Daley (LB), Evan Medders (QB), Gage LaDue (FB), Jaylin Reese (LB), Kemper Hodges (QB), Korey Johnson (DB), Liam Szarka (QB), Matt Long (WR), Max Mustell (DB), Muhammad Alcine (DL), Owen Allen (RB), Rocco Conti (RB), Simon Kibbee (TE), Thomas Young ().
Air Force football results, 2026
| Week | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs. Duquesne | W 34–0 |
| 2 | vs. North Dakota State | L 32–38 |
| 4 | at Nevada | W 36–33 |
| 5 | vs. Navy | W 14–9 |
| 6 | at Northern Illinois | W 28–7 |
| 7 | vs. UNLV | W 41–31 |
| 8 | at Wyoming | L 14–28 |
Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Air Force with any team.
Questions about Air Force
What is Air Force's record?
Air Force is 5–2, 3–2 in the Mountain West, with games through Oct 24, 2026.
Is Air Force good this year?
Air Force is 73rd of 138 in SP+, Bill Connelly's rating (middle of the pack), 68th in PRIME and 81st in Elo. They aren't in the AP Top 25.
Who does Air Force play this week?
Air Force hosts UConn, Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET. The numbers' pick: Air Force.
What is Air Force's best win?
Navy, 14–9 in Week 5. Navy is 2–5 and 80th in SP+.
What is Air Force's 2026 football schedule?
Week 1: vs. Duquesne (W 34–0); Week 2: vs. North Dakota State (L 32–38); Week 4: at Nevada (W 36–33); Week 5: vs. Navy (W 14–9); Week 6: at Northern Illinois (W 28–7); Week 7: vs. UNLV (W 41–31); Week 8: at Wyoming (L 14–28); Week 9: vs. UConn; Week 10: at Army; Week 11: vs. San José State; Week 12: vs. UTEP; Week 13: at New Mexico.
When does Air Force play next, and what channel is it on?
Against UConn at home, Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET, at Falcon Stadium. It's on MW+.
What was the score of Air Force's last game?
Air Force lost to Wyoming 28–14 on Fri, Oct 23 on the road.
Who is Air Force's quarterback?
Liam Szarka has thrown the most for Air Force this season: 296 passing yards through Oct 24, 2026.
Where does Air Force play its home games?
Falcon Stadium.
Where is Air Force ranked?
Unranked in the latest AP poll. 73rd of 138 in SP+, 68th in PRIME and 81st in Elo.
How many national championships has Air Force won?
Air Force hasn't won a major-college national championship.
How many conference championships has Air Force won?
Air Force has won 3 conference championships, most recently the WAC in 1998. Air Force has 3 WAC titles.
How good is Air Force?
SP+, PRIME and Elo agree: Air Force is a middle-of-the-pack team (73rd, 68th and 81st). Air Force has played one of the softest schedules so far (124th in PRIME).
What is Air Force good at?
Air Force's offensive line wins up front: a Big Uglies rating of 67.7, where 50 is average, 1st in FBS. Air Force runs the ball well: 0.17 EPA per rush, opponent-adjusted, 3rd in FBS. Air Force stays on schedule: a 47.2% success rate, opponent-adjusted, 15th in FBS. Air Force converts on 3rd down: a 47.0% conversion rate, 25th in FBS.
What is Air Force bad at?
Air Force doesn't hit big plays: 9.5% of its plays are explosive (runs of 12+ yards, passes of 16+), 120th of 134. Air Force's defensive front gets pushed around: a Big Uglies rating of 44.1, where 50 is average, 105th of 138. Air Force's passing game struggles: 0.15 EPA per pass, opponent-adjusted, 98th of 138.
How good is Air Force's offensive line?
Big Uglies, our offensive line rating, has Air Force at 67.7, 1st of 138 (50 is average). It's 1st in adjusted line yards per carry (3.35), gets stuffed on 9.4% of runs (2nd fewest) and converts 84.4% of short-yardage runs (9th).
How good is Air Force's defensive line?
Big Uglies has Air Force's defensive front at 44.1, 105th of 138. It gives up 3.06 adjusted line yards per carry (100th), stuffs 16.2% of runs (103rd) and gets a sack on 6.3% of dropbacks (65th).
Are Air Force's backs actually good, or is it all the offensive line?
Air Force's line is 1st of 138 in adjusted line yards per carry (3.35), the part of each run it earns. Its backs are 98th in adjusted open-field yards (1.04), the part they earn past 10 yards. It's mostly the line: the backs aren't adding much once they're past it.
Who is Air Force's head coach?
Troy Calhoun, since 2007.
College football, 2026 season
Nerd shit for
ball knowers.
Stats and data viz for all 138 FBS teams and 3,000+ players. Find out who's good, who's lucky and who's paying for it. Then use box scores, advanced stats and anything else we could get our hands on to build charts that support your takes.
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The 12-team field if the season ended today.
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2026
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About
Sources and methods
Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
Where the data comes from
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
How we turn it into projections
- Projected score. Each team's SP+ offense, plus how far the opponent's SP+ defense is from average, plus special teams. The home team gets half of a 2.5-point home edge added and the visitor half subtracted.
- Win chance. The projected margin turned into a probability, assuming games usually land within about 14 points of the projection. A 0-point margin is 50%; 14 points is about 84%.
- The three ratings. SP+ is built from every play this season. PRIME is a possession-efficiency rating. Elo uses only final scores and carries over from year to year, with 55 Elo points of home edge.
- The numbers' pick. The team at least two of the three ratings favor, with our confidence the average of their three win chances for that team. On the game cards, a pick is a lock when all three favor the same team and the average win chance is 80% or more, a coin flip when it's under 55%, and a lean otherwise. Injuries can drop the tier: each key player out counts by what he does for his team (a starting quarterback is 2 points, the feature back or top receiver half a point, doubtful counts half), the other side's injuries offset, and 1 point drops a tier, 2 points two. The game page shows it as an injury alert. Nobody overrides the numbers' pick.
- CFB Charts Top 25. SP+, PRIME and strength of record, each converted to a common scale and averaged.
- Playoff picture. The 2026-27 rules: automatic bids for the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions (the current conference leader stands in until the title games) and for the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top 12. The rest are at-large teams by the chosen rating, and all 12 are seeded straight by that rating, so the top four get the byes. Once the committee's rankings are out (first release Tuesday, Nov. 3), they become the default ranking.
- Missing data. When a team's play-by-play is clearly incomplete (fewer than 45 offensive plays a game), we hide its offense stats instead of showing bad numbers.
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Glossary
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
Ratings and advanced stats
What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
- SP+
- Bill Connelly's rating, built from play-by-play efficiency and explosiveness and adjusted for who each team played. The number is how many points better than an average FBS team a team is on a neutral field. SP+ 20 beats SP+ 10 by about 10.
- PRIME
- A rating built possession by possession: how well a team turns drives into points and keeps opponents from doing the same, adjusted for opponents. Zero is an average FBS team.
- Elo
- A results-only rating. Every team has a number, 1500 is average, and the winner takes points from the loser after every game. Beat a great team and you take a lot. Beat a bad one and you take a few. It carries part of last season over, so it's slow to catch a team that changed.
- Strength of record
- How impressive a record is, given who a team played: how many more games it won than an average team would have against the same schedule. It grades the resume. SP+ and PRIME grade how good the team is.
- Strength of schedule
- How hard a team's opponents have been so far.
- Opponent-adjusted
- Corrected for who a team played. Hanging 50 on an FCS team counts for less than hanging 30 on Georgia.
- EPA (expected points added)
- Every down, distance and spot on the field is worth some number of points on average. 1st and 10 at the opponent's 20 is worth a lot more than 3rd and 15 at your own 10. EPA is how much one play changed that number. A 50-yard bomb is a big plus. A pick-six is a very big minus.
- EPA per play
- A team's average EPA across all its plays. For an offense, above zero means it adds points and higher is better. For a defense, lower is better.
- Success rate
- The share of plays that keep an offense on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% of them on 2nd, all of them on 3rd and 4th. A 4-yard run on 1st and 10 is a success. A 4-yard run on 3rd and 6 isn't.
- Explosive play rate
- The share of plays that go for a run of 12 or more yards or a completion of 16 or more.
- Yards per play
- Total yards divided by plays: runs, passes and sacks.
- Sack rate
- Sacks divided by dropbacks. For an offense, lower is better. For a pass rush, higher is better.
- Turnover margin
- Takeaways (interceptions and fumbles recovered) minus giveaways (interceptions thrown and fumbles lost).
- RECEIPTS
- Record Explained: Coaching, Experience, Incoming talent, Pure luck and Toughness of Schedule. Where a team's wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. The record above or below .500 gets split four ways that add up to the real record: schedule (what an average team would win against that schedule), roster (the wins its talent and returning starters are worth on paper), coach (wins from playing better or worse than that roster) and luck (actual wins against the wins its SP+ says it should have). On team pages and in two charts.
- Schedule, Roster, Coach and Luck RECEIPTS
- The four parts of RECEIPTS. Schedule: what an average team would win against that schedule, minus .500. Roster: the extra wins from a roster this good on paper (247Sports talent and returning production). Coach: wins from playing better or worse than that roster should. Luck: actual wins against the wins SP+ expects. Recruiting rankings undersell the service academies, so their coaches get extra credit.
- Luck watch
- A tag for a team whose Luck RECEIPTS is 1.5 wins or more either way: "Lucky +2.4" or "Unlucky −1.6." Its record runs ahead of (or behind) how it's played, and lines and polls often follow records.
- Expected wins
- The wins a team should have, adding up its win chance in every game it played. Winning more than that usually means a lot of close wins, and close wins are mostly luck.
- Talent composite and blue-chip ratio
- 247Sports' score for a roster, built from every player's recruiting rating, with the best players counting most. The blue-chip ratio is the share of the roster that were 4- or 5-star recruits.
How we pick
How the picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
- Projected score
- Each team's SP+ offense, adjusted for how good the other team's defense is, plus special teams. The home team gets 2.5 points of home edge, split between the two scores.
- Win chance
- The projected margin turned into a percentage, assuming games usually land within about 14 points of the projection. A tie projection is 50%. A 14-point favorite is about 84%.
- The numbers' pick
- The team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. The confidence is the average of their three win chances. Nobody overrides it.
- Lock, Lean, Coin flip and Stay away
- How sure the numbers are about a straight-up pick. Lock: SP+, PRIME and Elo all favor the same team and the average win chance is 80% or more. Lean: the ratings favor the team, but not that strongly or not all three. Coin flip: the average win chance is under 55%. Stay away: injuries take the pick down. Key players count by what they do for the team: a starting quarterback out is 2 points, the feature back, top receiver or top pass rusher half a point, the No. 2 receiver or playmaker a quarter, and a short-handed line or secondary half a point. Doubtful counts half. When the picked team's points, minus the other side's, reach 1, the pick drops a tier (a Lock to a Lean, a Lean or Coin flip to Stay away); at 2 it drops two.
- Game of the week
- The one game to watch on Saturday: the best matchup on the board, by how good both teams are and how close the projection is.
- CFB Charts Top 25
- SP+, PRIME and strength of record, each put on the same scale and averaged. Nobody votes.
- Retro
- Monday's look back: every final score against what we projected, what we got right and what we got wrong.
Conferences and the playoff
Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
- FBS and FCS
- FBS is the top level of college football: the 138 teams on this site. FCS is the level below. When an FBS team plays an FCS team, it's usually a paid tune-up.
- Power 4
- The SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC. Notre Dame isn't in a conference, but we count it with the Power 4 wherever that matters.
- Group of 6
- Everyone else in FBS: the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt, plus the independents other than Notre Dame. The highest-ranked team from those six conferences gets an automatic playoff bid.
- Automatic bid
- A guaranteed playoff spot. The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions get one, and so does the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt.
- At-large
- A playoff spot earned by ranking high enough without an automatic bid. Notre Dame is in if it's in the top 12.
- First-round bye
- Seeds 1 through 4 skip the first round. Seeds 5 through 12 play first-round games at the higher seed's stadium.
Nothing matches that. Try a shorter word.
For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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About College Football Charts
College Football Charts is a college football stats site: a pick for every FBS game, head to heads across 75+ stats, the playoff picture, and charts you can bend to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
What's here
Every FBS team, player and game gets its own page, with national ranks, the ratings people argue about (SP+, PRIME and Elo) and charts you can share. The rivalry pages carry the series history. The tools let you build your own Top 25, your own 12-team playoff field and your own charts.
Who makes the picks
The numbers. Every pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor, and nobody overrides them. When they miss, the retro says so and by how much.
Where the numbers come from
We don't make the ratings; we put them side by side. SP+ is Bill Connelly's. SUPLEX is Nate Tice's. The play-by-play comes from CollegeFootballData.com and cfbfastR. The full list, and how we turn it into picks, is on Sources and methods.
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Betting advice. The line shows up because it's part of the story of a game, not because we want you to bet it.
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- 12 teams, under the 2026-27 rules. Automatic bids go to the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions, and to the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. Until the title games, each conference's current leader stands in as its champion.
- Notre Dame is in if you rank it in your top 12. Everyone else is at-large.
- Seeds go straight by your order. Seeds 1 to 4 get first-round byes; 5 to 12 play first-round games at the higher seed.
- The builder won't let you remove a Power 4 champion or your last team from outside the Power 4.
Drag a team by its handle (⋮⋮) to reseed it; with a keyboard, focus the handle and use the up and down arrow keys. Pick a different team from a row's menu to swap it in. Your field is saved in this browser.
Your 12 seeds
Your bracket
What's in it
- Thursday: the picks. The week's best games, the upset we like, projected scores for the big ones, and charts worth arguing about.
- Monday: the retro. How the picks did, the record so far, what we got wrong and why.
- Every issue, on the site. Past issues will live here, so you can link anyone to them.
The first issue is coming soon.
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Beating the trend
Trailing the trend
Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
This week
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Last week
All-time picks record
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? The numbers' pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. The numbers' and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Week by week
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
Over time
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Rank
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Compare
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SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Conference depth
Projected bracket
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The field and the bubble
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How the field is built
- 12 teams. Five get in automatically: the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions, plus the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt (champion or not).
- Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top 12.
- At-large. The remaining spots go to the highest-ranked teams left. If an automatic qualifier ranks outside the top 12, it takes the last at-large spot.
- Seeding follows the ranking, as it has since 2025. A conference champion isn't guaranteed a bye.
- Champions mid-season. "Current conference leader" uses the best conference record so far, with ties broken by the chosen rating. "Highest-rated team" picks the best-rated team in each conference instead.
- Composite averages SP+, PRIME and strength of record after putting each on a common scale.
- This is a projection from today's numbers. The real field is chosen by a committee on Dec. 6, after conference title games.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.