Florida leads 39–29–2 in the Sunshine Showdown through 2025. Florida won the last meeting, 40–21, in 2025.
Who's won the Sunshine Showdown lately?
- 2015
Florida State27–2 - 2016Florida State31–13
- 2017Florida State38–22
- 2018
Florida41–14 - 2019Florida40–17
- 2021Florida24–21
- 2022Florida State45–38
- 2023Florida State24–15
- 2024Florida31–11
- 2025Florida40–21
Florida has won 2 straight, since 2024. Over the last 10 meetings, it's even, 5–5.
How did the Sunshine Showdown start?
Florida beat Florida State 21-7 in Gainesville on November 22, 1958, after Governor LeRoy Collins asked UF's president to start the series; Florida had been reluctant and a 1955 bill to force the game had failed. The game has alternated between Gainesville and Tallahassee since 1964 and is played late in the season, on Thanksgiving weekend. "Sunshine Showdown" is also the name of a state promotion that counts head-to-head wins across all sports. In 1994 Florida State came back from 31-3 down in the fourth quarter to tie 31-31, the "Choke at Doak," and the teams met twice in the Sugar Bowl in the 1990s, with Florida winning its first national title there in January 1997.
What are the most famous Sunshine Showdown games?
- 1994: Choke at DoakFlorida led 31-3 entering the fourth quarter and Florida State rallied for a 31-31 tie in Tallahassee.
- 1996: No. 2 over No. 1Florida State beat top-ranked Florida 24-21 in Tallahassee, then lost the Sugar Bowl rematch 52-20 as Florida won the national title.Final: Florida State 24–21
- 1997: Gators get evenNo. 10 Florida beat No. 2 Florida State 32-29 in Gainesville.Final: Florida 32–29
How has the Sunshine Showdown series swung?
Each bar is one meeting. Bars above the line are Florida wins and bars below it are Florida State wins; the taller the bar, the bigger the margin. The empty stretch from 1905 to 1957 is when the series wasn't played. Over the last 10 meetings the two have split, 5–5. The widest margins are Florida 49–0 in 1973 and Florida State 52–17 in 1988.
How do Florida and Florida State compare this season?
Florida is the better team this season by SP+ (31st to 53rd), and it's ahead on 7 of these 10 stats. Each row is one stat: the dots are each team's national rank out of 138, printed by the dot, and further left is better.
| National rank | Florida | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | 31st | 53rd |
| SP+ offense | 24th | 32nd |
| SP+ defense | 50th | 76th |
| Success rate | 62nd | 81st |
| Success rate allowed | 107th | 100th |
| Explosive play rate | 48th | 26th |
| Big Uglies: offensive line | 50th | 23rd |
| Big Uglies: defensive front | 35th | 97th |
| Takeaways a game | 58th | 134th |
| Giveaways a game | 40th | 103rd |
What are the records in the Sunshine Showdown?
- Biggest Florida win
- 1973, 49–0
- Biggest Florida State win
- 1988, 52–17
- Longest streaks
- Florida, 9 straight (1968–1976); Florida State, 5 straight (2013–2017)
- Most points
- Florida, 53 in 1983
- Ties
- 2
Who has the most yards in the Sunshine Showdown?
| Best single game | Most in the series | |
|---|---|---|
| Passing | Kyle Trask (Florida), 343 passing yards in 2019, with 3 TDs | Chris Leak (Florida), 725 passing yards in 3 games (2004–2006) |
| Rushing | Jadan Baugh (Florida), 266 rushing yards in 2025, with 2 TDs | Dalvin Cook (Florida State), 480 rushing yards in 3 games (2014–2016) |
| Receiving | Kelvin Benjamin (Florida State), 212 receiving yards in 2013, with 3 TDs | Andre Jerome Caldwell (Florida), 242 receiving yards in 3 games (2004–2007) |
From the box scores of the 21 meetings since 2004 on CollegeFootballData.com. Older games don't have player stats.
Sunshine Showdown results: every game since 1904
| Year | Winner | Score | Home |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida | 40–21 | Florida |
| 2024 | Florida | 31–11 | Florida State |
| 2023 | Florida State | 24–15 | Florida |
| 2022 | Florida State | 45–38 | Florida State |
| 2021 | Florida | 24–21 | Florida |
| 2019 | Florida | 40–17 | Florida |
| 2018 | Florida | 41–14 | Florida State |
| 2017 | Florida State | 38–22 | Florida |
| 2016 | Florida State | 31–13 | Florida State |
| 2015 | Florida State | 27–2 | Florida |
| 2014 | Florida State | 24–19 | Florida State |
| 2013 | Florida State | 37–7 | Florida |
| 2012 | Florida | 37–26 | Florida State |
| 2011 | Florida State | 21–7 | Florida |
| 2010 | Florida State | 31–7 | Florida State |
| 2009 | Florida | 37–10 | Florida |
| 2008 | Florida | 45–15 | Florida State |
| 2007 | Florida | 45–12 | Florida |
| 2006 | Florida | 21–14 | Florida State |
| 2005 | Florida | 34–7 | Florida |
| 2004 | Florida | 20–13 | Florida State |
| 2003 | Florida State | 38–34 | Florida |
| 2002 | Florida State | 31–14 | Florida State |
| 2001 | Florida | 37–13 | Florida |
| 2000 | Florida State | 30–7 | Florida State |
| 1999 | Florida State | 30–23 | Florida |
| 1998 | Florida State | 23–12 | Florida State |
| 1997 | Florida | 32–29 | Florida |
| 1996 | Florida | 52–20 | Neutral |
| 1996 | Florida State | 24–21 | Florida State |
| 1995 | Florida | 35–24 | Florida |
| 1994 | Florida State | 23–17 | Neutral |
| 1994 | Tie | 31–31 | Florida |
| 1993 | Florida State | 33–21 | Florida |
| 1992 | Florida State | 45–24 | Florida State |
| 1991 | Florida | 14–9 | Florida |
| 1990 | Florida State | 45–30 | Florida State |
| 1989 | Florida State | 24–17 | Florida |
| 1988 | Florida State | 52–17 | Florida State |
| 1987 | Florida State | 28–14 | Florida |
| 1986 | Florida | 17–13 | Florida State |
| 1985 | Florida | 38–14 | Florida |
| 1984 | Florida | 27–17 | Florida State |
| 1983 | Florida | 53–14 | Florida |
| 1982 | Florida | 13–10 | Florida State |
| 1981 | Florida | 35–3 | Florida |
| 1980 | Florida State | 17–13 | Florida State |
| 1979 | Florida State | 27–16 | Florida |
| 1978 | Florida State | 38–21 | Florida State |
| 1977 | Florida State | 37–9 | Florida |
| 1976 | Florida | 33–26 | Florida State |
| 1975 | Florida | 34–8 | Florida |
| 1974 | Florida | 24–14 | Florida State |
| 1973 | Florida | 49–0 | Florida |
| 1972 | Florida | 42–13 | Florida State |
| 1971 | Florida | 17–15 | Florida |
| 1970 | Florida | 38–27 | Florida State |
| 1969 | Florida | 21–6 | Florida |
| 1968 | Florida | 9–3 | Florida State |
| 1967 | Florida State | 21–16 | Florida |
| 1966 | Florida | 22–19 | Florida State |
| 1965 | Florida | 30–17 | Florida |
| 1964 | Florida State | 16–7 | Florida State |
| 1963 | Florida | 7–0 | Florida |
| 1962 | Florida | 20–7 | Florida |
| 1961 | Tie | 3–3 | Florida State |
| 1960 | Florida | 3–0 | Florida |
| 1959 | Florida | 18–8 | Florida |
| 1958 | Florida | 21–7 | Florida |
| 1904 | Florida State | 23–0 | Florida |
Results from CollegeFootballData.com. The schools' official series records can differ by a game or two (vacated wins, disputed early games).
Questions about the Sunshine Showdown
Who leads the Sunshine Showdown series?
Florida leads 39–29–2 through the 2025 game, with 2 ties, in the 70 meetings on record since 1904.
Who won the last Sunshine Showdown?
Florida beat Florida State 40–21 on Nov 29, 2025 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
When was the first Sunshine Showdown?
1904. Florida State won 23–0.
What's the biggest win in the Sunshine Showdown?
Florida won by 49 in 1973, 49–0. Florida State won by 35 in 1988, 52–17.
What's the longest winning streak in the Sunshine Showdown?
Florida won 9 straight from 1968 to 1976. Florida State won 5 straight from 2013 to 2017.
Who has won the Sunshine Showdown lately?
Florida has won 2 straight, since 2024. Over the last 10 meetings, it's even, 5–5.
Why is it called the Sunshine Showdown?
"Sunshine Showdown" is also the name of a state promotion that counts head-to-head wins across all sports.
Who has the most passing yards in a Sunshine Showdown game?
Kyle Trask (Florida), 343 passing yards in 2019, with 3 TDs, the most in one game since 2004. The most in the series: Chris Leak (Florida), 725 passing yards in 3 games (2004–2006).
Who has the most rushing yards in a Sunshine Showdown game?
Jadan Baugh (Florida), 266 rushing yards in 2025, with 2 TDs, the most in one game since 2004. The most in the series: Dalvin Cook (Florida State), 480 rushing yards in 3 games (2014–2016).
Who has the most receiving yards in a Sunshine Showdown game?
Kelvin Benjamin (Florida State), 212 receiving yards in 2013, with 3 TDs, the most in one game since 2004. The most in the series: Andre Jerome Caldwell (Florida), 242 receiving yards in 3 games (2004–2007).
What is the Sunshine Showdown?
The Sunshine Showdown is the Florida–Florida State rivalry, first played in 1904. Florida leads 39–29–2 through 2025.
What happened in the 1994 Sunshine Showdown?
Choke at Doak: Florida led 31-3 entering the fourth quarter and Florida State rallied for a 31-31 tie in Tallahassee.
What happened in the 1996 Sunshine Showdown?
No. 2 over No. 1: Florida State beat top-ranked Florida 24-21 in Tallahassee, then lost the Sugar Bowl rematch 52-20 as Florida won the national title. Final: Florida State 24–21.
What happened in the 1997 Sunshine Showdown?
Gators get even: No. 10 Florida beat No. 2 Florida State 32-29 in Gainesville. Final: Florida 32–29.
Where can I watch Florida vs. Florida State, and what time is it?
Florida at Florida State, Friday, November 27, 3:30 PM ET, at Doak Campbell Stadium. It's on ABC.
When and where is the 2026 Sunshine Showdown?
Florida at Florida State, Friday, November 27, 3:30 PM ET, at Doak Campbell Stadium.
Florida vs. Florida State prediction: who will win in 2026?
SP+ projects Florida 34–32, about a 57% chance to win. The projection uses this season's ratings and updates every week.
What was the score of the last Florida vs. Florida State game?
Florida won 40–21 on Nov 29, 2025.
What's the Florida vs. Florida State record in the last 10 years?
Florida is 5–3 in the 8 meetings since 2016.
Florida vs. Florida State player stats: who starred in the 2025 game?
For Florida, D.J. Lagway threw for 168 yards and 3 TDs; Jadan Baugh ran for 266 yards and 2 TDs; J.Michael Sturdivant had 58 receiving yards and 1 TD. For Florida State, Thomas Castellanos threw for 240 yards and 2 TDs; he also ran for 77 yards and 1 TD; Lawayne McCoy had 117 receiving yards and 1 TD.
Who won the 2025 Sunshine Showdown?
Florida beat Florida State 40–21 on Nov 29, 2025 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Who won the 2024 Sunshine Showdown?
Florida beat Florida State 31–11 on Dec 1, 2024 at Doak Campbell Stadium.
Who won the 2023 Sunshine Showdown?
Florida State beat Florida 24–15 on Nov 26, 2023 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Who won the 2022 Sunshine Showdown?
Florida State beat Florida 45–38 on Nov 26, 2022 at Doak Campbell Stadium.
Who won the 2021 Sunshine Showdown?
Florida beat Florida State 24–21 on Nov 27, 2021 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
When was the last time Florida won the Sunshine Showdown?
2025, 40–21, the most recent meeting.
When was the last time Florida State won the Sunshine Showdown?
2023, 24–15. Florida has won both meetings since.
Related
- Florida's 2026 team page
- Florida State's 2026 team page
- World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party: Florida vs. Georgia
- Every named rivalry
History and trophy sources: en.wikipedia.org.
College football, 2026 season
Nerd shit for
ball knowers.
Stats and data viz for all 138 FBS teams and 3,000+ players. Find out who's good, who's lucky and who's paying for it. Then use box scores, advanced stats and anything else we could get our hands on to build charts that support your takes.
Week 9
Game of the week
Picks
Picks and projected scores for every FBS game this week.
Nerd shit
This week's games in charts, built on every game so far this season. They look a helluva lot better on their own pages, where you can tweak them and share them: copy the image, embed it or post it to X.
Week 8
Retro
Every pick, graded.
Rankings
Our Top 25 after last week, and where we split from the AP and Coaches polls.
Playoff field
The 12-team field if the season ended today.
The week in charts
Last week's story, told with that week's games alone. Screenshot to end (or start) an argument in the group chat.
2026
Superlatives
The best, worst, luckiest and most overrated so far. Tap a tile to learn more.
Hot and cold
Who's streaking and who's shitting the bed.
Make your own case
Everything you build can be saved as an image for the group chat.
Drag a team by its handle (⋮⋮) to move it; with a keyboard, focus the handle and use the up and down arrow keys. To put a different team in a spot, pick it from that row's menu; if it's already ranked somewhere else, the two trade places. Your ranking is saved in this browser.
Your Top 25
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About
Sources and methods
Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
Where the data comes from
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
How we turn it into projections
- Projected score. Each team's SP+ offense, plus how far the opponent's SP+ defense is from average, plus special teams. The home team gets half of a 2.5-point home edge added and the visitor half subtracted.
- Win chance. The projected margin turned into a probability, assuming games usually land within about 14 points of the projection. A 0-point margin is 50%; 14 points is about 84%.
- The three ratings. SP+ is built from every play this season. PRIME is a possession-efficiency rating. Elo uses only final scores and carries over from year to year, with 55 Elo points of home edge.
- The numbers' pick. The team at least two of the three ratings favor, with our confidence the average of their three win chances for that team. On the game cards, a pick is a lock when all three favor the same team and the average win chance is 80% or more, a coin flip when it's under 55%, and a lean otherwise. Injuries can drop the tier: each key player out counts by what he does for his team (a starting quarterback is 2 points, the feature back or top receiver half a point, doubtful counts half), the other side's injuries offset, and 1 point drops a tier, 2 points two. The game page shows it as an injury alert. Nobody overrides the numbers' pick.
- CFB Charts Top 25. SP+, PRIME and strength of record, each converted to a common scale and averaged.
- Playoff picture. The 2026-27 rules: automatic bids for the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions (the current conference leader stands in until the title games) and for the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top 12. The rest are at-large teams by the chosen rating, and all 12 are seeded straight by that rating, so the top four get the byes. Once the committee's rankings are out (first release Tuesday, Nov. 3), they become the default ranking.
- Missing data. When a team's play-by-play is clearly incomplete (fewer than 45 offensive plays a game), we hide its offense stats instead of showing bad numbers.
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Glossary
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
Ratings and advanced stats
What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
- SP+
- Bill Connelly's rating, built from play-by-play efficiency and explosiveness and adjusted for who each team played. The number is how many points better than an average FBS team a team is on a neutral field. SP+ 20 beats SP+ 10 by about 10.
- PRIME
- A rating built possession by possession: how well a team turns drives into points and keeps opponents from doing the same, adjusted for opponents. Zero is an average FBS team.
- Elo
- A results-only rating. Every team has a number, 1500 is average, and the winner takes points from the loser after every game. Beat a great team and you take a lot. Beat a bad one and you take a few. It carries part of last season over, so it's slow to catch a team that changed.
- Strength of record
- How impressive a record is, given who a team played: how many more games it won than an average team would have against the same schedule. It grades the resume. SP+ and PRIME grade how good the team is.
- Strength of schedule
- How hard a team's opponents have been so far.
- Opponent-adjusted
- Corrected for who a team played. Hanging 50 on an FCS team counts for less than hanging 30 on Georgia.
- EPA (expected points added)
- Every down, distance and spot on the field is worth some number of points on average. 1st and 10 at the opponent's 20 is worth a lot more than 3rd and 15 at your own 10. EPA is how much one play changed that number. A 50-yard bomb is a big plus. A pick-six is a very big minus.
- EPA per play
- A team's average EPA across all its plays. For an offense, above zero means it adds points and higher is better. For a defense, lower is better.
- Success rate
- The share of plays that keep an offense on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% of them on 2nd, all of them on 3rd and 4th. A 4-yard run on 1st and 10 is a success. A 4-yard run on 3rd and 6 isn't.
- Explosive play rate
- The share of plays that go for a run of 12 or more yards or a completion of 16 or more.
- Yards per play
- Total yards divided by plays: runs, passes and sacks.
- Sack rate
- Sacks divided by dropbacks. For an offense, lower is better. For a pass rush, higher is better.
- Turnover margin
- Takeaways (interceptions and fumbles recovered) minus giveaways (interceptions thrown and fumbles lost).
- RECEIPTS
- Record Explained: Coaching, Experience, Incoming talent, Pure luck and Toughness of Schedule. Where a team's wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. The record above or below .500 gets split four ways that add up to the real record: schedule (what an average team would win against that schedule), roster (the wins its talent and returning starters are worth on paper), coach (wins from playing better or worse than that roster) and luck (actual wins against the wins its SP+ says it should have). On team pages and in two charts.
- Schedule, Roster, Coach and Luck RECEIPTS
- The four parts of RECEIPTS. Schedule: what an average team would win against that schedule, minus .500. Roster: the extra wins from a roster this good on paper (247Sports talent and returning production). Coach: wins from playing better or worse than that roster should. Luck: actual wins against the wins SP+ expects. Recruiting rankings undersell the service academies, so their coaches get extra credit.
- Luck watch
- A tag for a team whose Luck RECEIPTS is 1.5 wins or more either way: "Lucky +2.4" or "Unlucky −1.6." Its record runs ahead of (or behind) how it's played, and lines and polls often follow records.
- Expected wins
- The wins a team should have, adding up its win chance in every game it played. Winning more than that usually means a lot of close wins, and close wins are mostly luck.
- Talent composite and blue-chip ratio
- 247Sports' score for a roster, built from every player's recruiting rating, with the best players counting most. The blue-chip ratio is the share of the roster that were 4- or 5-star recruits.
How we pick
How the picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
- Projected score
- Each team's SP+ offense, adjusted for how good the other team's defense is, plus special teams. The home team gets 2.5 points of home edge, split between the two scores.
- Win chance
- The projected margin turned into a percentage, assuming games usually land within about 14 points of the projection. A tie projection is 50%. A 14-point favorite is about 84%.
- The numbers' pick
- The team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. The confidence is the average of their three win chances. Nobody overrides it.
- Lock, Lean, Coin flip and Stay away
- How sure the numbers are about a straight-up pick. Lock: SP+, PRIME and Elo all favor the same team and the average win chance is 80% or more. Lean: the ratings favor the team, but not that strongly or not all three. Coin flip: the average win chance is under 55%. Stay away: injuries take the pick down. Key players count by what they do for the team: a starting quarterback out is 2 points, the feature back, top receiver or top pass rusher half a point, the No. 2 receiver or playmaker a quarter, and a short-handed line or secondary half a point. Doubtful counts half. When the picked team's points, minus the other side's, reach 1, the pick drops a tier (a Lock to a Lean, a Lean or Coin flip to Stay away); at 2 it drops two.
- Game of the week
- The one game to watch on Saturday: the best matchup on the board, by how good both teams are and how close the projection is.
- CFB Charts Top 25
- SP+, PRIME and strength of record, each put on the same scale and averaged. Nobody votes.
- Retro
- Monday's look back: every final score against what we projected, what we got right and what we got wrong.
Conferences and the playoff
Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
- FBS and FCS
- FBS is the top level of college football: the 138 teams on this site. FCS is the level below. When an FBS team plays an FCS team, it's usually a paid tune-up.
- Power 4
- The SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC. Notre Dame isn't in a conference, but we count it with the Power 4 wherever that matters.
- Group of 6
- Everyone else in FBS: the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt, plus the independents other than Notre Dame. The highest-ranked team from those six conferences gets an automatic playoff bid.
- Automatic bid
- A guaranteed playoff spot. The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions get one, and so does the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt.
- At-large
- A playoff spot earned by ranking high enough without an automatic bid. Notre Dame is in if it's in the top 12.
- First-round bye
- Seeds 1 through 4 skip the first round. Seeds 5 through 12 play first-round games at the higher seed's stadium.
Nothing matches that. Try a shorter word.
For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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About
About College Football Charts
College Football Charts is a college football stats site: a pick for every FBS game, head to heads across 75+ stats, the playoff picture, and charts you can bend to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
What's here
Every FBS team, player and game gets its own page, with national ranks, the ratings people argue about (SP+, PRIME and Elo) and charts you can share. The rivalry pages carry the series history. The tools let you build your own Top 25, your own 12-team playoff field and your own charts.
Who makes the picks
The numbers. Every pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor, and nobody overrides them. When they miss, the retro says so and by how much.
Where the numbers come from
We don't make the ratings; we put them side by side. SP+ is Bill Connelly's. SUPLEX is Nate Tice's. The play-by-play comes from CollegeFootballData.com and cfbfastR. The full list, and how we turn it into picks, is on Sources and methods.
What this isn't
Betting advice. The line shows up because it's part of the story of a game, not because we want you to bet it.
Get in touch
Questions, a stat you want to see, a bug, or a partnership idea: send us a note. The newsletter has the picks and the retro every week.
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- 12 teams, under the 2026-27 rules. Automatic bids go to the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions, and to the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. Until the title games, each conference's current leader stands in as its champion.
- Notre Dame is in if you rank it in your top 12. Everyone else is at-large.
- Seeds go straight by your order. Seeds 1 to 4 get first-round byes; 5 to 12 play first-round games at the higher seed.
- The builder won't let you remove a Power 4 champion or your last team from outside the Power 4.
Drag a team by its handle (⋮⋮) to reseed it; with a keyboard, focus the handle and use the up and down arrow keys. Pick a different team from a row's menu to swap it in. Your field is saved in this browser.
Your 12 seeds
Your bracket
What's in it
- Thursday: the picks. The week's best games, the upset we like, projected scores for the big ones, and charts worth arguing about.
- Monday: the retro. How the picks did, the record so far, what we got wrong and why.
- Every issue, on the site. Past issues will live here, so you can link anyone to them.
The first issue is coming soon.
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Beating the trend
Trailing the trend
Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
This week
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Last week
All-time picks record
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? The numbers' pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. The numbers' and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Week by week
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
Over time
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Rank
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Compare
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SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Conference depth
Projected bracket
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The field and the bubble
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How the field is built
- 12 teams. Five get in automatically: the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions, plus the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt (champion or not).
- Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top 12.
- At-large. The remaining spots go to the highest-ranked teams left. If an automatic qualifier ranks outside the top 12, it takes the last at-large spot.
- Seeding follows the ranking, as it has since 2025. A conference champion isn't guaranteed a bye.
- Champions mid-season. "Current conference leader" uses the best conference record so far, with ties broken by the chosen rating. "Highest-rated team" picks the best-rated team in each conference instead.
- Composite averages SP+, PRIME and strength of record after putting each on a common scale.
- This is a projection from today's numbers. The real field is chosen by a committee on Dec. 6, after conference title games.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.