The Megaphone Trophy
vs.
Michigan State vs. Notre Dame. First played in 1897; the results here start in 1899.
Notre Dame leads 45–28–1 in the Megaphone Trophy through 2026. Notre Dame won the last meeting, 27–10, in 2026.
Who's won the Megaphone Trophy lately?
- 2007Michigan State31–14
- 2008Michigan State23–7
- 2009Notre Dame33–30
- 2010Michigan State34–31
- 2011Notre Dame31–13
- 2012Notre Dame20–3
- 2013Notre Dame17–13
- 2016Michigan State36–28
- 2017Notre Dame38–18
- 2026Notre Dame27–10
Notre Dame has won 2 straight, since 2017. Over the last 10 meetings, Notre Dame is 6–4.
What's the Megaphone Trophy trophy?
Megaphone Trophy: a megaphone with a blue Notre Dame side and a green Michigan State side, with each year's score running down the middle; the alumni clubs of both schools introduced it in 1949.
How did the Megaphone Trophy start?
Notre Dame beat Michigan State 34-6 in South Bend on November 25, 1897. The teams didn't meet between 1921 and 1948, and the Megaphone Trophy started the year after the series resumed. The 1966 game, between the top two teams in the country, ended 10-10 and is often called one of the greatest college games ever played. In 2010 Michigan State won 34-31 in overtime when holder Aaron Bates threw a touchdown pass to Charlie Gantt on a fake field goal.
What are the most famous Megaphone Trophy games?
- 1966: 10-10The teams played to a 10-10 tie in a game often called one of the greatest ever played.
- 2006: Notre Dame rallyNotre Dame came back to win 40-37 in East Lansing.Final: Notre Dame 40–37
- 2010: Fake field goalHolder Aaron Bates threw the winning touchdown to Charlie Gantt in overtime for a 34-31 Michigan State win.Final: Michigan State 34–31
How has the Megaphone Trophy series swung?
Each bar is one meeting. Bars above the line are Michigan State wins and bars below it are Notre Dame wins; the taller the bar, the bigger the margin. The empty stretch from 1922 to 1947 is when the series wasn't played. Over the last 10 meetings Notre Dame is 6–4. The widest margins are Michigan State 35–0 in 1951 and Notre Dame 48–0 in 1921.
How do Michigan State and Notre Dame compare this season?
Notre Dame is the better team this season by SP+ (4th to 88th), and it's ahead on 10 of these 10 stats. Each row is one stat: the dots are each team's national rank out of 138, printed by the dot, and further left is better.
| National rank | Michigan State | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | 88th | 4th |
| SP+ offense | 99th | 3rd |
| SP+ defense | 68th | 8th |
| Success rate | 96th | 6th |
| Success rate allowed | 111th | 15th |
| Explosive play rate | 130th | 71st |
| Big Uglies: offensive line | 95th | 6th |
| Big Uglies: defensive front | 70th | 20th |
| Takeaways a game | 123rd | 4th |
| Giveaways a game | 82nd | 2nd |
What are the records in the Megaphone Trophy?
- Biggest Michigan State win
- 1951, 35–0
- Biggest Notre Dame win
- 1921, 48–0
- Longest streaks
- Michigan State, 8 straight (1955–1963); Notre Dame, 8 straight (1987–1994)
- Most points
- Notre Dame, 52 in 1992
- Ties
- 1
Who has the most yards in the Megaphone Trophy?
| Best single game | Most in the series | |
|---|---|---|
| Passing | Brady Quinn (Notre Dame), 487 passing yards in 2005, with 5 TDs | Brady Quinn (Notre Dame), 1,021 passing yards in 3 games (2004–2006) |
| Rushing | Javon Ringer (Michigan State), 201 rushing yards in 2008, with 2 TDs | Javon Ringer (Michigan State), 445 rushing yards in 4 games (2005–2008) |
| Receiving | Maurice Stovall (Notre Dame), 176 receiving yards in 2005, with 1 TD | B.J. Cunningham (Michigan State), 355 receiving yards in 4 games (2008–2011) |
From the box scores of the 12 meetings since 2004 on CollegeFootballData.com. Older games don't have player stats.
Megaphone Trophy results: every game since 1899
| Year | Winner | Score | Home |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Notre Dame | 27–10 | Notre Dame |
| 2017 | Notre Dame | 38–18 | Michigan State |
| 2016 | Michigan State | 36–28 | Notre Dame |
| 2013 | Notre Dame | 17–13 | Notre Dame |
| 2012 | Notre Dame | 20–3 | Michigan State |
| 2011 | Notre Dame | 31–13 | Notre Dame |
| 2010 | Michigan State | 34–31 | Michigan State |
| 2009 | Notre Dame | 33–30 | Notre Dame |
| 2008 | Michigan State | 23–7 | Michigan State |
| 2007 | Michigan State | 31–14 | Notre Dame |
| 2006 | Notre Dame | 40–37 | Michigan State |
| 2005 | Michigan State | 44–41 | Notre Dame |
| 2004 | Notre Dame | 31–24 | Michigan State |
| 2003 | Michigan State | 22–16 | Notre Dame |
| 2002 | Notre Dame | 21–17 | Michigan State |
| 2001 | Michigan State | 17–10 | Notre Dame |
| 2000 | Michigan State | 27–21 | Michigan State |
| 1999 | Michigan State | 23–13 | Notre Dame |
| 1998 | Michigan State | 45–23 | Michigan State |
| 1997 | Michigan State | 23–7 | Notre Dame |
| 1994 | Notre Dame | 21–20 | Michigan State |
| 1993 | Notre Dame | 36–14 | Notre Dame |
| 1992 | Notre Dame | 52–31 | Michigan State |
| 1991 | Notre Dame | 49–10 | Notre Dame |
| 1990 | Notre Dame | 20–19 | Michigan State |
| 1989 | Notre Dame | 21–13 | Notre Dame |
| 1988 | Notre Dame | 20–3 | Michigan State |
| 1987 | Notre Dame | 31–8 | Notre Dame |
| 1986 | Michigan State | 20–15 | Michigan State |
| 1985 | Notre Dame | 27–10 | Notre Dame |
| 1984 | Notre Dame | 24–20 | Michigan State |
| 1983 | Michigan State | 28–23 | Notre Dame |
| 1982 | Notre Dame | 11–3 | Michigan State |
| 1981 | Notre Dame | 20–7 | Notre Dame |
| 1980 | Notre Dame | 26–21 | Michigan State |
| 1979 | Notre Dame | 27–3 | Notre Dame |
| 1978 | Notre Dame | 29–25 | Michigan State |
| 1977 | Notre Dame | 16–6 | Notre Dame |
| 1976 | Notre Dame | 24–6 | Michigan State |
| 1975 | Michigan State | 10–3 | Notre Dame |
| 1974 | Notre Dame | 19–14 | Michigan State |
| 1973 | Notre Dame | 14–10 | Notre Dame |
| 1972 | Notre Dame | 16–0 | Michigan State |
| 1971 | Notre Dame | 14–2 | Notre Dame |
| 1970 | Notre Dame | 29–0 | Michigan State |
| 1969 | Notre Dame | 42–28 | Notre Dame |
| 1968 | Michigan State | 21–17 | Michigan State |
| 1967 | Notre Dame | 24–12 | Notre Dame |
| 1966 | Tie | 10–10 | Notre Dame |
| 1965 | Michigan State | 12–3 | Notre Dame |
| 1964 | Notre Dame | 34–7 | Notre Dame |
| 1963 | Michigan State | 12–7 | Michigan State |
| 1962 | Michigan State | 31–7 | Notre Dame |
| 1961 | Michigan State | 17–7 | Michigan State |
| 1960 | Michigan State | 21–0 | Notre Dame |
| 1959 | Michigan State | 19–0 | Michigan State |
| 1957 | Michigan State | 34–6 | Michigan State |
| 1956 | Michigan State | 47–14 | Notre Dame |
| 1955 | Michigan State | 21–7 | Michigan State |
| 1954 | Notre Dame | 20–19 | Notre Dame |
| 1952 | Michigan State | 21–3 | Michigan State |
| 1951 | Michigan State | 35–0 | Michigan State |
| 1950 | Michigan State | 36–33 | Notre Dame |
| 1949 | Notre Dame | 34–21 | Michigan State |
| 1948 | Notre Dame | 26–7 | Notre Dame |
| 1921 | Notre Dame | 48–0 | Notre Dame |
| 1920 | Notre Dame | 25–0 | Michigan State |
| 1919 | Notre Dame | 13–0 | Notre Dame |
| 1918 | Michigan State | 13–7 | Michigan State |
| 1917 | Notre Dame | 23–0 | Notre Dame |
| 1916 | Notre Dame | 14–0 | Michigan State |
| 1905 | Notre Dame | 28–0 | Notre Dame |
| 1902 | Notre Dame | 33–0 | Notre Dame |
| 1899 | Notre Dame | 40–0 | Notre Dame |
Results from CollegeFootballData.com. The schools' official series records can differ by a game or two (vacated wins, disputed early games).
Questions about the Megaphone Trophy
Who leads the Megaphone Trophy series?
Notre Dame leads 45–28–1 through the 2026 game, with 1 tie, in the 74 meetings on record since 1899.
Who won the last Megaphone Trophy?
Notre Dame beat Michigan State 27–10 on 2026.
When was the first Megaphone Trophy?
1897, by the schools' count. Our game-by-game results start in 1899.
What's the trophy for the Megaphone Trophy?
Megaphone Trophy: a megaphone with a blue Notre Dame side and a green Michigan State side, with each year's score running down the middle; the alumni clubs of both schools introduced it in 1949.
What's the biggest win in the Megaphone Trophy?
Notre Dame won by 48 in 1921, 48–0. Michigan State won by 35 in 1951, 35–0.
What's the longest winning streak in the Megaphone Trophy?
Michigan State won 8 straight from 1955 to 1963. Notre Dame won 8 straight from 1987 to 1994.
Who has won the Megaphone Trophy lately?
Notre Dame has won 2 straight, since 2017. Over the last 10 meetings, Notre Dame is 6–4.
Why is it called the Megaphone Trophy?
The 1966 game, between the top two teams in the country, ended 10-10 and is often called one of the greatest college games ever played.
Who has the most passing yards in a Megaphone Trophy game?
Brady Quinn (Notre Dame), 487 passing yards in 2005, with 5 TDs, the most in one game since 2004. The most in the series: Brady Quinn (Notre Dame), 1,021 passing yards in 3 games (2004–2006).
Who has the most rushing yards in a Megaphone Trophy game?
Javon Ringer (Michigan State), 201 rushing yards in 2008, with 2 TDs, the most in one game since 2004. The most in the series: Javon Ringer (Michigan State), 445 rushing yards in 4 games (2005–2008).
Who has the most receiving yards in a Megaphone Trophy game?
Maurice Stovall (Notre Dame), 176 receiving yards in 2005, with 1 TD, the most in one game since 2004. The most in the series: B.J. Cunningham (Michigan State), 355 receiving yards in 4 games (2008–2011).
What is the Megaphone Trophy?
The Megaphone Trophy is the Michigan State–Notre Dame rivalry, first played in 1897. Notre Dame leads 45–28–1 through 2026, and the winner takes home the Megaphone Trophy.
What happened in the 1966 Megaphone Trophy?
10-10: The teams played to a 10-10 tie in a game often called one of the greatest ever played.
What happened in the 2006 Megaphone Trophy?
Notre Dame rally: Notre Dame came back to win 40-37 in East Lansing. Final: Notre Dame 40–37.
What happened in the 2010 Megaphone Trophy?
Fake field goal: Holder Aaron Bates threw the winning touchdown to Charlie Gantt in overtime for a 34-31 Michigan State win. Final: Michigan State 34–31.
Where can I watch Michigan State vs. Notre Dame, and what time is it?
They already played this season: Notre Dame won 27–10. They don't meet again in 2026.
When is the next Megaphone Trophy?
They already played this season: Notre Dame won 27–10. They don't meet again in 2026.
Who has the Megaphone Trophy?
Notre Dame has it. Notre Dame won the 2026 game, 27–10, its 2nd straight.
What was the score of the last Michigan State vs. Notre Dame game?
Notre Dame won 27–10 in 2026.
What's the Michigan State vs. Notre Dame record in the last 10 years?
Notre Dame is 2–0 in the 2 meetings since 2016.
Michigan State vs. Notre Dame player stats: who starred in the 2017 game?
For Michigan State, Brian Lewerke threw for 340 yards and 2 TDs; LJ Scott ran for 61 yards; Hunter Rison had 73 receiving yards. For Notre Dame, Brandon Wimbush threw for 173 yards and 1 TD; Josh Adams ran for 56 yards; Equanimeous St. Brown had 61 receiving yards.
Who won the 2026 Megaphone Trophy?
Notre Dame beat Michigan State 27–10.
Who won the 2017 Megaphone Trophy?
Notre Dame beat Michigan State 38–18 on Sep 24, 2017 at Spartan Stadium.
Who won the 2016 Megaphone Trophy?
Michigan State beat Notre Dame 36–28 on Sep 17, 2016 at Notre Dame Stadium.
Who won the 2013 Megaphone Trophy?
Notre Dame beat Michigan State 17–13 on Sep 21, 2013 at Notre Dame Stadium.
Who won the 2012 Megaphone Trophy?
Notre Dame beat Michigan State 20–3 on Sep 16, 2012 at Spartan Stadium.
When was the last time Michigan State won the Megaphone Trophy?
2016, 36–28. Notre Dame has won both meetings since.
When was the last time Notre Dame won the Megaphone Trophy?
2026, 27–10, the most recent meeting.
Related
- Michigan State's 2026 team page
- Notre Dame's 2026 team page
- Paul Bunyan Trophy: Michigan vs. Michigan State
- Land Grant Trophy: Michigan State vs. Penn State
- Jeweled Shillelagh: Notre Dame vs. USC
- Legends Trophy: Notre Dame vs. Stanford
- Shillelagh Trophy: Notre Dame vs. Purdue
- Every named rivalry
History and trophy sources: en.wikipedia.org.
College football, 2026 season
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Sources and methods
Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
Where the data comes from
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
How we turn it into projections
- Projected score. Each team's SP+ offense, plus how far the opponent's SP+ defense is from average, plus special teams. The home team gets half of a 2.5-point home edge added and the visitor half subtracted.
- Win chance. The projected margin turned into a probability, assuming games usually land within about 14 points of the projection. A 0-point margin is 50%; 14 points is about 84%.
- The three ratings. SP+ is built from every play this season. PRIME is a possession-efficiency rating. Elo uses only final scores and carries over from year to year, with 55 Elo points of home edge.
- The numbers' pick. The team at least two of the three ratings favor, with our confidence the average of their three win chances for that team. On the game cards, a pick is a lock when all three favor the same team and the average win chance is 80% or more, a coin flip when it's under 55%, and a lean otherwise. Injuries can drop the tier: each key player out counts by what he does for his team (a starting quarterback is 2 points, the feature back or top receiver half a point, doubtful counts half), the other side's injuries offset, and 1 point drops a tier, 2 points two. The game page shows it as an injury alert. Nobody overrides the numbers' pick.
- CFB Charts Top 25. SP+, PRIME and strength of record, each converted to a common scale and averaged.
- Playoff picture. The 2026-27 rules: automatic bids for the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions (the current conference leader stands in until the title games) and for the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top 12. The rest are at-large teams by the chosen rating, and all 12 are seeded straight by that rating, so the top four get the byes. Once the committee's rankings are out (first release Tuesday, Nov. 3), they become the default ranking.
- Missing data. When a team's play-by-play is clearly incomplete (fewer than 45 offensive plays a game), we hide its offense stats instead of showing bad numbers.
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
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Glossary
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
Ratings and advanced stats
What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
- SP+
- Bill Connelly's rating, built from play-by-play efficiency and explosiveness and adjusted for who each team played. The number is how many points better than an average FBS team a team is on a neutral field. SP+ 20 beats SP+ 10 by about 10.
- PRIME
- A rating built possession by possession: how well a team turns drives into points and keeps opponents from doing the same, adjusted for opponents. Zero is an average FBS team.
- Elo
- A results-only rating. Every team has a number, 1500 is average, and the winner takes points from the loser after every game. Beat a great team and you take a lot. Beat a bad one and you take a few. It carries part of last season over, so it's slow to catch a team that changed.
- Strength of record
- How impressive a record is, given who a team played: how many more games it won than an average team would have against the same schedule. It grades the resume. SP+ and PRIME grade how good the team is.
- Strength of schedule
- How hard a team's opponents have been so far.
- Opponent-adjusted
- Corrected for who a team played. Hanging 50 on an FCS team counts for less than hanging 30 on Georgia.
- EPA (expected points added)
- Every down, distance and spot on the field is worth some number of points on average. 1st and 10 at the opponent's 20 is worth a lot more than 3rd and 15 at your own 10. EPA is how much one play changed that number. A 50-yard bomb is a big plus. A pick-six is a very big minus.
- EPA per play
- A team's average EPA across all its plays. For an offense, above zero means it adds points and higher is better. For a defense, lower is better.
- Success rate
- The share of plays that keep an offense on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% of them on 2nd, all of them on 3rd and 4th. A 4-yard run on 1st and 10 is a success. A 4-yard run on 3rd and 6 isn't.
- Explosive play rate
- The share of plays that go for a run of 12 or more yards or a completion of 16 or more.
- Yards per play
- Total yards divided by plays: runs, passes and sacks.
- Sack rate
- Sacks divided by dropbacks. For an offense, lower is better. For a pass rush, higher is better.
- Turnover margin
- Takeaways (interceptions and fumbles recovered) minus giveaways (interceptions thrown and fumbles lost).
- RECEIPTS
- Record Explained: Coaching, Experience, Incoming talent, Pure luck and Toughness of Schedule. Where a team's wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. The record above or below .500 gets split four ways that add up to the real record: schedule (what an average team would win against that schedule), roster (the wins its talent and returning starters are worth on paper), coach (wins from playing better or worse than that roster) and luck (actual wins against the wins its SP+ says it should have). On team pages and in two charts.
- Schedule, Roster, Coach and Luck RECEIPTS
- The four parts of RECEIPTS. Schedule: what an average team would win against that schedule, minus .500. Roster: the extra wins from a roster this good on paper (247Sports talent and returning production). Coach: wins from playing better or worse than that roster should. Luck: actual wins against the wins SP+ expects. Recruiting rankings undersell the service academies, so their coaches get extra credit.
- Luck watch
- A tag for a team whose Luck RECEIPTS is 1.5 wins or more either way: "Lucky +2.4" or "Unlucky −1.6." Its record runs ahead of (or behind) how it's played, and lines and polls often follow records.
- Expected wins
- The wins a team should have, adding up its win chance in every game it played. Winning more than that usually means a lot of close wins, and close wins are mostly luck.
- Talent composite and blue-chip ratio
- 247Sports' score for a roster, built from every player's recruiting rating, with the best players counting most. The blue-chip ratio is the share of the roster that were 4- or 5-star recruits.
How we pick
How the picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
- Projected score
- Each team's SP+ offense, adjusted for how good the other team's defense is, plus special teams. The home team gets 2.5 points of home edge, split between the two scores.
- Win chance
- The projected margin turned into a percentage, assuming games usually land within about 14 points of the projection. A tie projection is 50%. A 14-point favorite is about 84%.
- The numbers' pick
- The team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. The confidence is the average of their three win chances. Nobody overrides it.
- Lock, Lean, Coin flip and Stay away
- How sure the numbers are about a straight-up pick. Lock: SP+, PRIME and Elo all favor the same team and the average win chance is 80% or more. Lean: the ratings favor the team, but not that strongly or not all three. Coin flip: the average win chance is under 55%. Stay away: injuries take the pick down. Key players count by what they do for the team: a starting quarterback out is 2 points, the feature back, top receiver or top pass rusher half a point, the No. 2 receiver or playmaker a quarter, and a short-handed line or secondary half a point. Doubtful counts half. When the picked team's points, minus the other side's, reach 1, the pick drops a tier (a Lock to a Lean, a Lean or Coin flip to Stay away); at 2 it drops two.
- Game of the week
- The one game to watch on Saturday: the best matchup on the board, by how good both teams are and how close the projection is.
- CFB Charts Top 25
- SP+, PRIME and strength of record, each put on the same scale and averaged. Nobody votes.
- Retro
- Monday's look back: every final score against what we projected, what we got right and what we got wrong.
Conferences and the playoff
Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
- FBS and FCS
- FBS is the top level of college football: the 138 teams on this site. FCS is the level below. When an FBS team plays an FCS team, it's usually a paid tune-up.
- Power 4
- The SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC. Notre Dame isn't in a conference, but we count it with the Power 4 wherever that matters.
- Group of 6
- Everyone else in FBS: the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt, plus the independents other than Notre Dame. The highest-ranked team from those six conferences gets an automatic playoff bid.
- Automatic bid
- A guaranteed playoff spot. The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions get one, and so does the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt.
- At-large
- A playoff spot earned by ranking high enough without an automatic bid. Notre Dame is in if it's in the top 12.
- First-round bye
- Seeds 1 through 4 skip the first round. Seeds 5 through 12 play first-round games at the higher seed's stadium.
Nothing matches that. Try a shorter word.
For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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About College Football Charts
College Football Charts is a college football stats site: a pick for every FBS game, head to heads across 75+ stats, the playoff picture, and charts you can bend to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Every FBS team, player and game gets its own page, with national ranks, the ratings people argue about (SP+, PRIME and Elo) and charts you can share. The rivalry pages carry the series history. The tools let you build your own Top 25, your own 12-team playoff field and your own charts.
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- 12 teams, under the 2026-27 rules. Automatic bids go to the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions, and to the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. Until the title games, each conference's current leader stands in as its champion.
- Notre Dame is in if you rank it in your top 12. Everyone else is at-large.
- Seeds go straight by your order. Seeds 1 to 4 get first-round byes; 5 to 12 play first-round games at the higher seed.
- The builder won't let you remove a Power 4 champion or your last team from outside the Power 4.
Drag a team by its handle (⋮⋮) to reseed it; with a keyboard, focus the handle and use the up and down arrow keys. Pick a different team from a row's menu to swap it in. Your field is saved in this browser.
Your 12 seeds
Your bracket
What's in it
- Thursday: the picks. The week's best games, the upset we like, projected scores for the big ones, and charts worth arguing about.
- Monday: the retro. How the picks did, the record so far, what we got wrong and why.
- Every issue, on the site. Past issues will live here, so you can link anyone to them.
The first issue is coming soon.
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Beating the trend
Trailing the trend
Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
This week
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Last week
All-time picks record
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? The numbers' pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. The numbers' and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Week by week
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
Over time
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What this shows
Rank
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What this shows
Compare
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SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Conference depth
Projected bracket
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The field and the bubble
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How the field is built
- 12 teams. Five get in automatically: the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions, plus the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt (champion or not).
- Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top 12.
- At-large. The remaining spots go to the highest-ranked teams left. If an automatic qualifier ranks outside the top 12, it takes the last at-large spot.
- Seeding follows the ranking, as it has since 2025. A conference champion isn't guaranteed a bye.
- Champions mid-season. "Current conference leader" uses the best conference record so far, with ties broken by the chosen rating. "Highest-rated team" picks the best-rated team in each conference instead.
- Composite averages SP+, PRIME and strength of record after putting each on a common scale.
- This is a projection from today's numbers. The real field is chosen by a committee on Dec. 6, after conference title games.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.