The Victory Bell
vs.
Cincinnati vs. Miami (OH). First played in 1888; the results here start in 1954.
Cincinnati leads 36–34–1 in the Victory Bell through 2026. Cincinnati won the last meeting, 35–31, in 2026.
Who's won the Victory Bell lately?
- 2015Cincinnati37–33
- 2016Cincinnati27–20
- 2017Cincinnati21–17
- 2018Cincinnati21–0
- 2019Cincinnati35–13
- 2021Cincinnati49–14
- 2022Cincinnati38–17
- 2023Miami (OH)31–24
- 2024Cincinnati27–16
- 2026Cincinnati35–31
Cincinnati has won 2 straight, since 2024. Over the last 10 meetings, Cincinnati is 9–1.
What's the Victory Bell trophy?
Victory Bell: a replica of the bell that hung in Miami's Harrison Hall and was rung after Miami wins; Cincinnati fans took the original in the 1890s, starting the traveling tradition.
How did the Victory Bell start?
Miami and Cincinnati played to a 0-0 tie in Oxford on December 8, 1888, the first college football game in Ohio. It's the oldest non-conference rivalry in the country, tied for the oldest in FBS and the oldest Division I rivalry west of the Allegheny Mountains. The original bell went to the yearly winner for about 40 years, vanished in the 1930s and turned up again in 1946. Cincinnati won 16 straight from 2006 through 2022 before Miami won 31-24 in overtime in 2023.
What are the most famous Victory Bell games?
- 1888: First game in OhioThe teams tied 0-0 in Oxford in the first college football game played in the state.
- 1968: Late field goalJim O'Brien's 47-yard field goal with three seconds left capped a Cincinnati comeback from 21-6 down for a 23-21 win.Final: Cincinnati 23–21
- 2023: Streak endsMiami won 31-24 in overtime to end a 16-game losing streak to Cincinnati.Final: Miami (OH) 31–24
How has the Victory Bell series swung?
Each bar is one meeting. Bars above the line are Cincinnati wins and bars below it are Miami (OH) wins; the taller the bar, the bigger the margin. Over the last 10 meetings Cincinnati is 9–1. Cincinnati swept the 2010s, 10–0. The widest margins are Cincinnati 45–3 in 2010 and Miami (OH) 41–0 in 1998.
How do Cincinnati and Miami (OH) compare this season?
Cincinnati is the better team this season by SP+ (49th to 92nd), and it's ahead on 6 of these 10 stats. Each row is one stat: the dots are each team's national rank out of 138, printed by the dot, and further left is better.
| National rank | Cincinnati | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | 49th | 92nd |
| SP+ offense | 21st | 100th |
| SP+ defense | 78th | 77th |
| Success rate | 47th | 82nd |
| Success rate allowed | 109th | 65th |
| Explosive play rate | 35th | 25th |
| Big Uglies: offensive line | 46th | 90th |
| Big Uglies: defensive front | 88th | 39th |
| Takeaways a game | 41st | 98th |
| Giveaways a game | 7th | 35th |
What are the records in the Victory Bell?
- Biggest Cincinnati win
- 2010, 45–3
- Biggest Miami (OH) win
- 1998, 41–0
- Longest streaks
- Cincinnati, 16 straight (2006–2022); Miami (OH), 5 straight (1971–1975)
- Most points
- Cincinnati, 52 in 1999
- Ties
- 1
Who has the most yards in the Victory Bell?
| Best single game | Most in the series | |
|---|---|---|
| Passing | Josh Betts (Miami (OH)), 416 passing yards in 2004, with 4 TDs | Zac Dysert (Miami (OH)), 1,006 passing yards in 4 games (2009–2012) |
| Rushing | Richard Hall (Cincinnati), 238 rushing yards in 2004, with 3 TDs | Isaiah Pead (Cincinnati), 306 rushing yards in 3 games (2009–2011) |
| Receiving | Hannibal Thomas (Cincinnati), 175 receiving yards in 2004, with 1 TD | Armand Robinson (Miami (OH)), 269 receiving yards in 4 games (2007–2010) |
From the box scores of the 20 meetings since 2004 on CollegeFootballData.com. Older games don't have player stats.
Victory Bell results: every game since 1954
| Year | Winner | Score | Home |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Cincinnati | 35–31 | Cincinnati |
| 2024 | Cincinnati | 27–16 | Miami (OH) |
| 2023 | Miami (OH) | 31–24 | Cincinnati |
| 2022 | Cincinnati | 38–17 | Neutral |
| 2021 | Cincinnati | 49–14 | Cincinnati |
| 2019 | Cincinnati | 35–13 | Cincinnati |
| 2018 | Cincinnati | 21–0 | Miami (OH) |
| 2017 | Cincinnati | 21–17 | Miami (OH) |
| 2016 | Cincinnati | 27–20 | Cincinnati |
| 2015 | Cincinnati | 37–33 | Miami (OH) |
| 2014 | Cincinnati | 31–24 | Cincinnati |
| 2013 | Cincinnati | 14–0 | Miami (OH) |
| 2012 | Cincinnati | 52–14 | Cincinnati |
| 2011 | Cincinnati | 27–0 | Miami (OH) |
| 2010 | Cincinnati | 45–3 | Cincinnati |
| 2009 | Cincinnati | 37–13 | Miami (OH) |
| 2008 | Cincinnati | 45–20 | Cincinnati |
| 2007 | Cincinnati | 47–10 | Miami (OH) |
| 2006 | Cincinnati | 24–10 | Cincinnati |
| 2005 | Miami (OH) | 44–16 | Miami (OH) |
| 2004 | Cincinnati | 45–26 | Cincinnati |
| 2003 | Miami (OH) | 42–37 | Miami (OH) |
| 2002 | Miami (OH) | 31–26 | Cincinnati |
| 2001 | Miami (OH) | 21–14 | Miami (OH) |
| 2000 | Cincinnati | 45–15 | Cincinnati |
| 1999 | Cincinnati | 52–42 | Miami (OH) |
| 1998 | Miami (OH) | 41–0 | Cincinnati |
| 1997 | Cincinnati | 34–31 | Miami (OH) |
| 1996 | Cincinnati | 30–23 | Cincinnati |
| 1995 | Miami (OH) | 23–16 | Miami (OH) |
| 1994 | Tie | 17–17 | Cincinnati |
| 1993 | Cincinnati | 30–23 | Cincinnati |
| 1992 | Miami (OH) | 17–14 | Miami (OH) |
| 1991 | Miami (OH) | 22–9 | Cincinnati |
| 1990 | Miami (OH) | 16–12 | Cincinnati |
| 1989 | Cincinnati | 30–14 | Miami (OH) |
| 1988 | Cincinnati | 34–18 | Miami (OH) |
| 1987 | Cincinnati | 31–26 | Cincinnati |
| 1986 | Cincinnati | 45–38 | Cincinnati |
| 1985 | Miami (OH) | 16–10 | Miami (OH) |
| 1984 | Miami (OH) | 31–26 | Cincinnati |
| 1983 | Miami (OH) | 14–10 | Miami (OH) |
| 1982 | Cincinnati | 20–10 | Cincinnati |
| 1981 | Miami (OH) | 7–3 | Miami (OH) |
| 1980 | Cincinnati | 23–13 | Cincinnati |
| 1979 | Miami (OH) | 27–14 | Miami (OH) |
| 1978 | Miami (OH) | 28–24 | Miami (OH) |
| 1977 | Miami (OH) | 12–7 | Cincinnati |
| 1976 | Cincinnati | 17–0 | Cincinnati |
| 1975 | Miami (OH) | 21–13 | Miami (OH) |
| 1974 | Miami (OH) | 27–7 | Cincinnati |
| 1973 | Miami (OH) | 6–0 | Miami (OH) |
| 1972 | Miami (OH) | 23–0 | Cincinnati |
| 1971 | Miami (OH) | 43–7 | Miami (OH) |
| 1970 | Cincinnati | 33–0 | Cincinnati |
| 1969 | Miami (OH) | 36–20 | Cincinnati |
| 1968 | Cincinnati | 23–21 | Cincinnati |
| 1967 | Miami (OH) | 27–14 | Cincinnati |
| 1966 | Miami (OH) | 28–8 | Cincinnati |
| 1965 | Miami (OH) | 37–7 | Cincinnati |
| 1964 | Cincinnati | 28–14 | Cincinnati |
| 1963 | Miami (OH) | 21–19 | Cincinnati |
| 1962 | Miami (OH) | 38–16 | Cincinnati |
| 1961 | Miami (OH) | 7–3 | Cincinnati |
| 1960 | Miami (OH) | 10–6 | Cincinnati |
| 1959 | Cincinnati | 14–7 | Cincinnati |
| 1958 | Cincinnati | 18–7 | Cincinnati |
| 1957 | Miami (OH) | 20–14 | Cincinnati |
| 1956 | Miami (OH) | 27–13 | Cincinnati |
| 1955 | Miami (OH) | 14–0 | Cincinnati |
| 1954 | Miami (OH) | 21–9 | Cincinnati |
Results from CollegeFootballData.com. The schools' official series records can differ by a game or two (vacated wins, disputed early games).
Questions about the Victory Bell
Who leads the Victory Bell series?
Cincinnati leads 36–34–1 through the 2026 game, with 1 tie, in the 71 meetings on record since 1954.
Who won the last Victory Bell?
Cincinnati beat Miami (OH) 35–31 on 2026.
When was the first Victory Bell?
1888, by the schools' count. Our game-by-game results start in 1954.
What's the trophy for the Victory Bell?
Victory Bell: a replica of the bell that hung in Miami's Harrison Hall and was rung after Miami wins; Cincinnati fans took the original in the 1890s, starting the traveling tradition.
What's the biggest win in the Victory Bell?
Cincinnati won by 42 in 2010, 45–3. Miami (OH) won by 41 in 1998, 41–0.
What's the longest winning streak in the Victory Bell?
Cincinnati won 16 straight from 2006 to 2022. Miami (OH) won 5 straight from 1971 to 1975.
Who has won the Victory Bell lately?
Cincinnati has won 2 straight, since 2024. Over the last 10 meetings, Cincinnati is 9–1.
Who has the most passing yards in a Victory Bell game?
Josh Betts (Miami (OH)), 416 passing yards in 2004, with 4 TDs, the most in one game since 2004. The most in the series: Zac Dysert (Miami (OH)), 1,006 passing yards in 4 games (2009–2012).
Who has the most rushing yards in a Victory Bell game?
Richard Hall (Cincinnati), 238 rushing yards in 2004, with 3 TDs, the most in one game since 2004. The most in the series: Isaiah Pead (Cincinnati), 306 rushing yards in 3 games (2009–2011).
Who has the most receiving yards in a Victory Bell game?
Hannibal Thomas (Cincinnati), 175 receiving yards in 2004, with 1 TD, the most in one game since 2004. The most in the series: Armand Robinson (Miami (OH)), 269 receiving yards in 4 games (2007–2010).
What is the Victory Bell?
The Victory Bell is the Cincinnati–Miami (OH) rivalry, first played in 1888. Cincinnati leads 36–34–1 through 2026, and the winner takes home the Victory Bell.
What happened in the 1888 Victory Bell?
First game in Ohio: The teams tied 0-0 in Oxford in the first college football game played in the state.
What happened in the 1968 Victory Bell?
Late field goal: Jim O'Brien's 47-yard field goal with three seconds left capped a Cincinnati comeback from 21-6 down for a 23-21 win. Final: Cincinnati 23–21.
What happened in the 2023 Victory Bell?
Streak ends: Miami won 31-24 in overtime to end a 16-game losing streak to Cincinnati. Final: Miami (OH) 31–24.
Where can I watch Cincinnati vs. Miami (OH), and what time is it?
They already played this season: Cincinnati won 35–31. They don't meet again in 2026.
When is the next Victory Bell?
They already played this season: Cincinnati won 35–31. They don't meet again in 2026.
Who has the Victory Bell?
Cincinnati has it. Cincinnati won the 2026 game, 35–31, its 2nd straight.
What was the score of the last Cincinnati vs. Miami (OH) game?
Cincinnati won 35–31 in 2026.
What's the Cincinnati vs. Miami (OH) record in the last 10 years?
Cincinnati is 7–1 in the 8 meetings since 2016.
Cincinnati vs. Miami (OH) player stats: who starred in the 2024 game?
For Miami (OH), Brett Gabbert threw for 339 yards and 2 TDs; Kevin Davis ran for 14 yards; Cade McDonald had 135 receiving yards and 1 TD. For Cincinnati, Brendan Sorsby threw for 186 yards and 1 TD; Corey Kiner ran for 126 yards and 1 TD; Xzavier Henderson had 108 receiving yards.
Who won the 2026 Victory Bell?
Cincinnati beat Miami (OH) 35–31.
Who won the 2024 Victory Bell?
Cincinnati beat Miami (OH) 27–16 on Sep 14, 2024 at Yager Stadium.
Who won the 2023 Victory Bell?
Miami (OH) beat Cincinnati 31–24 on Sep 16, 2023 at Nippert Stadium.
Who won the 2022 Victory Bell?
Cincinnati beat Miami (OH) 38–17 on Sep 17, 2022 at Paul Brown Stadium.
Who won the 2021 Victory Bell?
Cincinnati beat Miami (OH) 49–14 on Sep 4, 2021 at Nippert Stadium.
When was the last time Cincinnati won the Victory Bell?
2026, 35–31, the most recent meeting.
When was the last time Miami (OH) won the Victory Bell?
2023, 31–24. Cincinnati has won both meetings since.
Related
- Cincinnati's 2026 team page
- Miami (OH)'s 2026 team page
- Keg of Nails: Cincinnati vs. Louisville
- Battle of the Bricks: Miami (OH) vs. Ohio
- Every named rivalry
History and trophy sources: en.wikipedia.org.
College football, 2026 season
Nerd shit for
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Sources and methods
Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
Where the data comes from
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
How we turn it into projections
- Projected score. Each team's SP+ offense, plus how far the opponent's SP+ defense is from average, plus special teams. The home team gets half of a 2.5-point home edge added and the visitor half subtracted.
- Win chance. The projected margin turned into a probability, assuming games usually land within about 14 points of the projection. A 0-point margin is 50%; 14 points is about 84%.
- The three ratings. SP+ is built from every play this season. PRIME is a possession-efficiency rating. Elo uses only final scores and carries over from year to year, with 55 Elo points of home edge.
- The numbers' pick. The team at least two of the three ratings favor, with our confidence the average of their three win chances for that team. On the game cards, a pick is a lock when all three favor the same team and the average win chance is 80% or more, a coin flip when it's under 55%, and a lean otherwise. Injuries can drop the tier: each key player out counts by what he does for his team (a starting quarterback is 2 points, the feature back or top receiver half a point, doubtful counts half), the other side's injuries offset, and 1 point drops a tier, 2 points two. The game page shows it as an injury alert. Nobody overrides the numbers' pick.
- CFB Charts Top 25. SP+, PRIME and strength of record, each converted to a common scale and averaged.
- Playoff picture. The 2026-27 rules: automatic bids for the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions (the current conference leader stands in until the title games) and for the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top 12. The rest are at-large teams by the chosen rating, and all 12 are seeded straight by that rating, so the top four get the byes. Once the committee's rankings are out (first release Tuesday, Nov. 3), they become the default ranking.
- Missing data. When a team's play-by-play is clearly incomplete (fewer than 45 offensive plays a game), we hide its offense stats instead of showing bad numbers.
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Glossary
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
Ratings and advanced stats
What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
- SP+
- Bill Connelly's rating, built from play-by-play efficiency and explosiveness and adjusted for who each team played. The number is how many points better than an average FBS team a team is on a neutral field. SP+ 20 beats SP+ 10 by about 10.
- PRIME
- A rating built possession by possession: how well a team turns drives into points and keeps opponents from doing the same, adjusted for opponents. Zero is an average FBS team.
- Elo
- A results-only rating. Every team has a number, 1500 is average, and the winner takes points from the loser after every game. Beat a great team and you take a lot. Beat a bad one and you take a few. It carries part of last season over, so it's slow to catch a team that changed.
- Strength of record
- How impressive a record is, given who a team played: how many more games it won than an average team would have against the same schedule. It grades the resume. SP+ and PRIME grade how good the team is.
- Strength of schedule
- How hard a team's opponents have been so far.
- Opponent-adjusted
- Corrected for who a team played. Hanging 50 on an FCS team counts for less than hanging 30 on Georgia.
- EPA (expected points added)
- Every down, distance and spot on the field is worth some number of points on average. 1st and 10 at the opponent's 20 is worth a lot more than 3rd and 15 at your own 10. EPA is how much one play changed that number. A 50-yard bomb is a big plus. A pick-six is a very big minus.
- EPA per play
- A team's average EPA across all its plays. For an offense, above zero means it adds points and higher is better. For a defense, lower is better.
- Success rate
- The share of plays that keep an offense on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% of them on 2nd, all of them on 3rd and 4th. A 4-yard run on 1st and 10 is a success. A 4-yard run on 3rd and 6 isn't.
- Explosive play rate
- The share of plays that go for a run of 12 or more yards or a completion of 16 or more.
- Yards per play
- Total yards divided by plays: runs, passes and sacks.
- Sack rate
- Sacks divided by dropbacks. For an offense, lower is better. For a pass rush, higher is better.
- Turnover margin
- Takeaways (interceptions and fumbles recovered) minus giveaways (interceptions thrown and fumbles lost).
- RECEIPTS
- Record Explained: Coaching, Experience, Incoming talent, Pure luck and Toughness of Schedule. Where a team's wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. The record above or below .500 gets split four ways that add up to the real record: schedule (what an average team would win against that schedule), roster (the wins its talent and returning starters are worth on paper), coach (wins from playing better or worse than that roster) and luck (actual wins against the wins its SP+ says it should have). On team pages and in two charts.
- Schedule, Roster, Coach and Luck RECEIPTS
- The four parts of RECEIPTS. Schedule: what an average team would win against that schedule, minus .500. Roster: the extra wins from a roster this good on paper (247Sports talent and returning production). Coach: wins from playing better or worse than that roster should. Luck: actual wins against the wins SP+ expects. Recruiting rankings undersell the service academies, so their coaches get extra credit.
- Luck watch
- A tag for a team whose Luck RECEIPTS is 1.5 wins or more either way: "Lucky +2.4" or "Unlucky −1.6." Its record runs ahead of (or behind) how it's played, and lines and polls often follow records.
- Expected wins
- The wins a team should have, adding up its win chance in every game it played. Winning more than that usually means a lot of close wins, and close wins are mostly luck.
- Talent composite and blue-chip ratio
- 247Sports' score for a roster, built from every player's recruiting rating, with the best players counting most. The blue-chip ratio is the share of the roster that were 4- or 5-star recruits.
How we pick
How the picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
- Projected score
- Each team's SP+ offense, adjusted for how good the other team's defense is, plus special teams. The home team gets 2.5 points of home edge, split between the two scores.
- Win chance
- The projected margin turned into a percentage, assuming games usually land within about 14 points of the projection. A tie projection is 50%. A 14-point favorite is about 84%.
- The numbers' pick
- The team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. The confidence is the average of their three win chances. Nobody overrides it.
- Lock, Lean, Coin flip and Stay away
- How sure the numbers are about a straight-up pick. Lock: SP+, PRIME and Elo all favor the same team and the average win chance is 80% or more. Lean: the ratings favor the team, but not that strongly or not all three. Coin flip: the average win chance is under 55%. Stay away: injuries take the pick down. Key players count by what they do for the team: a starting quarterback out is 2 points, the feature back, top receiver or top pass rusher half a point, the No. 2 receiver or playmaker a quarter, and a short-handed line or secondary half a point. Doubtful counts half. When the picked team's points, minus the other side's, reach 1, the pick drops a tier (a Lock to a Lean, a Lean or Coin flip to Stay away); at 2 it drops two.
- Game of the week
- The one game to watch on Saturday: the best matchup on the board, by how good both teams are and how close the projection is.
- CFB Charts Top 25
- SP+, PRIME and strength of record, each put on the same scale and averaged. Nobody votes.
- Retro
- Monday's look back: every final score against what we projected, what we got right and what we got wrong.
Conferences and the playoff
Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
- FBS and FCS
- FBS is the top level of college football: the 138 teams on this site. FCS is the level below. When an FBS team plays an FCS team, it's usually a paid tune-up.
- Power 4
- The SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC. Notre Dame isn't in a conference, but we count it with the Power 4 wherever that matters.
- Group of 6
- Everyone else in FBS: the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt, plus the independents other than Notre Dame. The highest-ranked team from those six conferences gets an automatic playoff bid.
- Automatic bid
- A guaranteed playoff spot. The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions get one, and so does the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt.
- At-large
- A playoff spot earned by ranking high enough without an automatic bid. Notre Dame is in if it's in the top 12.
- First-round bye
- Seeds 1 through 4 skip the first round. Seeds 5 through 12 play first-round games at the higher seed's stadium.
Nothing matches that. Try a shorter word.
For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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About College Football Charts
College Football Charts is a college football stats site: a pick for every FBS game, head to heads across 75+ stats, the playoff picture, and charts you can bend to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Every FBS team, player and game gets its own page, with national ranks, the ratings people argue about (SP+, PRIME and Elo) and charts you can share. The rivalry pages carry the series history. The tools let you build your own Top 25, your own 12-team playoff field and your own charts.
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Where the numbers come from
We don't make the ratings; we put them side by side. SP+ is Bill Connelly's. SUPLEX is Nate Tice's. The play-by-play comes from CollegeFootballData.com and cfbfastR. The full list, and how we turn it into picks, is on Sources and methods.
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- 12 teams, under the 2026-27 rules. Automatic bids go to the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions, and to the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. Until the title games, each conference's current leader stands in as its champion.
- Notre Dame is in if you rank it in your top 12. Everyone else is at-large.
- Seeds go straight by your order. Seeds 1 to 4 get first-round byes; 5 to 12 play first-round games at the higher seed.
- The builder won't let you remove a Power 4 champion or your last team from outside the Power 4.
Drag a team by its handle (⋮⋮) to reseed it; with a keyboard, focus the handle and use the up and down arrow keys. Pick a different team from a row's menu to swap it in. Your field is saved in this browser.
Your 12 seeds
Your bracket
What's in it
- Thursday: the picks. The week's best games, the upset we like, projected scores for the big ones, and charts worth arguing about.
- Monday: the retro. How the picks did, the record so far, what we got wrong and why.
- Every issue, on the site. Past issues will live here, so you can link anyone to them.
The first issue is coming soon.
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Beating the trend
Trailing the trend
Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
This week
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Last week
All-time picks record
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? The numbers' pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. The numbers' and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Week by week
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
Over time
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What this shows
Rank
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What this shows
Compare
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SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Conference depth
Projected bracket
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The field and the bubble
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How the field is built
- 12 teams. Five get in automatically: the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions, plus the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt (champion or not).
- Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top 12.
- At-large. The remaining spots go to the highest-ranked teams left. If an automatic qualifier ranks outside the top 12, it takes the last at-large spot.
- Seeding follows the ranking, as it has since 2025. A conference champion isn't guaranteed a bye.
- Champions mid-season. "Current conference leader" uses the best conference record so far, with ties broken by the chosen rating. "Highest-rated team" picks the best-rated team in each conference instead.
- Composite averages SP+, PRIME and strength of record after putting each on a common scale.
- This is a projection from today's numbers. The real field is chosen by a committee on Dec. 6, after conference title games.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.