Messiah Burch stats, 2026
Buffalo (5–3, Mid-American). Running back. 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.
Messiah Burch is a running back for Buffalo (5–3). Among running backs this season he's 4th in carries (150), 8th in rushing yards (843), 50th in rushing TDs (5), in 8 games.
Bio
Who is Messiah Burch?
- Position
- Running back
- Class
- Senior
- Height
- 5-9
- Weight
- 190 pounds
- Number
- No. 4
- Hometown
- Staten Island, NY
- High school
- Monsignor Farrell (Staten Island, NY)
- Recruiting
- 3-star, No. 2063 in the 2023 class
From the 2026 roster, the 247Sports recruiting composite and the transfer portal, all via CollegeFootballData.com.
The season
Messiah Burch's rushing stats
He's 4th of 428 running backs in carries (150) and 8th of 427 running backs in rushing yards (843).
| Stat | Season | National rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 843 | 8th of 427 |
| Carries | 150 | 4th of 428 |
| Yards per carry | 5.6 | 98th of 372 |
| Rushing TDs | 5 | 50th of 351 |
The season
Messiah Burch's rushing efficiency and big plays
He's 57th of 393 running backs in explosive runs (12+ yards) (9) and 223rd of 357 running backs in EPA per play (0.06).
| Stat | Season | National rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing success rate | 36.3% | 294th of 366 |
| Explosive runs (12+ yards) | 9 | 57th of 393 |
| EPA per play | 0.06 | 223rd of 357 |
The season
Messiah Burch's receiving stats
He's 196th of 395 running backs in catches (6) and 297th of 392 running backs in receiving yards (23).
| Stat | Season | National rank |
|---|---|---|
| Catches | 6 | 196th of 395 |
| Receiving yards | 23 | 297th of 392 |
Ranks are among every FBS running back with the stat this season. Rates need a minimum sample (50 dropbacks for passing rates, 20 carries, 8 catches). From the play-by-play.
Charts
How does Messiah Burch compare, in charts?
Career
Messiah Burch's career stats
| Season | Team | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Rush TD | Catches | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Buffalo | 29 | 153 | 5.3 | 2 | 9 | 99 | 0 |
| 2025 | Buffalo | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 |
| 2026 | Buffalo | 150 | 843 | 5.6 | 5 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Career | 190 | 1,037 | 5.5 | 7 | 19 | 121 | 0 |
Past seasons (back to 2022) from CollegeFootballData.com; 2026 from the play-by-play, games through Oct 24, 2026.
Advanced
Messiah Burch's advanced stats by season
| Season | Team | EPA/play | Pass EPA/play | Rush EPA/play | Rush success | Explosive runs | Total EPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Buffalo | +0.31 | +0.48 | +0.22 | 37.0% | 22.2% | 10.4 | 5% |
| 2025 | Buffalo | -0.41 | -0.27 | -0.52 | — | — | -5.0 | 3% |
| 2026 | Buffalo | +0.07 | -0.42 | +0.10 | 36.3% | 7.3% | 10.8 | 28% |
EPA per play is the expected points a player adds on each of his plays (0 is average; glossary). Success means the play stayed on schedule: half the yards to go on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third or fourth. Explosive means a run of 12+ yards or a completion of 16+, as a share of his throws, carries or catches. Usage is the share of his team's plays that went to him. EPA and usage leave out garbage time; success and explosive rates count every play. From CollegeFootballData.com and cfbfastR.
Game log
Messiah Burch's game log, 2026
| Week | Opponent | Result | Rushing yards | Carries | Rushing TDs | Explosive runs (12+ yards) | Catches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs. UAlbany | W 21–17 | 72 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | at Florida International | L 20–33 | 24 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | at Penn State | L 13–55 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 4 | vs. Robert Morris | W 31–28 | 146 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | vs. Western Michigan | L 17–20 | 106 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 6 | at Toledo | W 23–8 | 137 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 7 | vs. Massachusetts | W 25–18 | 168 | 27 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 8 | vs. Bowling Green | W 31–24 | 184 | 34 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
FAQ
Questions about Messiah Burch
What position does Messiah Burch play?
Messiah Burch plays running back for Buffalo, which is 5–3 this season.
Where is Messiah Burch from, and what year is he?
Messiah Burch is a senior running back for Buffalo, listed at 5-9 and 190 pounds, from Staten Island, NY.
How tall is Messiah Burch, and how much does he weigh?
Messiah Burch is listed at 5-9 and 190 pounds on Buffalo's 2026 roster.
What year is Messiah Burch?
Messiah Burch is a senior, from the 2023 recruiting class.
What are Messiah Burch's career stats?
Over 3 seasons (2024–2026), Messiah Burch has 1,037 rushing yards on 190 carries with 7 rushing touchdowns, plus 19 catches for 121 yards.
Who does Messiah Burch play for?
Buffalo (5–3, Mid-American), where he plays running back and wears No. 4.
Is Messiah Burch eligible for the NFL Draft?
Yes. Players can enter the NFL Draft three years after high school, and Messiah Burch was in the 2023 class, so he's eligible for the 2027 draft.
How did Messiah Burch play in his last game?
Week 8 vs. Bowling Green: 184 rushing yards, 34 carries, 3 rushing TDs, 3 explosive runs (12+ yards). Buffalo won 31–24.
Where did Messiah Burch go to high school?
Monsignor Farrell (Staten Island, NY). He was a 3-star recruit, No. 2063 in the 2023 class.
What are Messiah Burch's stats this season?
843 rushing yards, 150 carries, 5.6 yards per carry, 5 rushing TDs, 36.3% rushing success rate in 8 games, through Oct 24, 2026.
How does Messiah Burch rank nationally?
Among FBS running backs: 4th of 428 in carries, 8th of 427 in rushing yards, 50th of 351 in rushing TDs.
Related
College football, 2026 season
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
Where the data comes from
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
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| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
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| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
How we turn it into projections
- Projected score. Each team's SP+ offense, plus how far the opponent's SP+ defense is from average, plus special teams. The home team gets half of a 2.5-point home edge added and the visitor half subtracted.
- Win chance. The projected margin turned into a probability, assuming games usually land within about 14 points of the projection. A 0-point margin is 50%; 14 points is about 84%.
- The three ratings. SP+ is built from every play this season. PRIME is a possession-efficiency rating. Elo uses only final scores and carries over from year to year, with 55 Elo points of home edge.
- The numbers' pick. The team at least two of the three ratings favor, with our confidence the average of their three win chances for that team. On the game cards, a pick is a lock when all three favor the same team and the average win chance is 80% or more, a coin flip when it's under 55%, and a lean otherwise. Injuries can drop the tier: each key player out counts by what he does for his team (a starting quarterback is 2 points, the feature back or top receiver half a point, doubtful counts half), the other side's injuries offset, and 1 point drops a tier, 2 points two. The game page shows it as an injury alert. Nobody overrides the numbers' pick.
- CFB Charts Top 25. SP+, PRIME and strength of record, each converted to a common scale and averaged.
- Playoff picture. The 2026-27 rules: automatic bids for the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions (the current conference leader stands in until the title games) and for the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top 12. The rest are at-large teams by the chosen rating, and all 12 are seeded straight by that rating, so the top four get the byes. Once the committee's rankings are out (first release Tuesday, Nov. 3), they become the default ranking.
- Missing data. When a team's play-by-play is clearly incomplete (fewer than 45 offensive plays a game), we hide its offense stats instead of showing bad numbers.
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
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Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
Ratings and advanced stats
What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
- SP+
- Bill Connelly's rating, built from play-by-play efficiency and explosiveness and adjusted for who each team played. The number is how many points better than an average FBS team a team is on a neutral field. SP+ 20 beats SP+ 10 by about 10.
- PRIME
- A rating built possession by possession: how well a team turns drives into points and keeps opponents from doing the same, adjusted for opponents. Zero is an average FBS team.
- Elo
- A results-only rating. Every team has a number, 1500 is average, and the winner takes points from the loser after every game. Beat a great team and you take a lot. Beat a bad one and you take a few. It carries part of last season over, so it's slow to catch a team that changed.
- Strength of record
- How impressive a record is, given who a team played: how many more games it won than an average team would have against the same schedule. It grades the resume. SP+ and PRIME grade how good the team is.
- Strength of schedule
- How hard a team's opponents have been so far.
- Opponent-adjusted
- Corrected for who a team played. Hanging 50 on an FCS team counts for less than hanging 30 on Georgia.
- EPA (expected points added)
- Every down, distance and spot on the field is worth some number of points on average. 1st and 10 at the opponent's 20 is worth a lot more than 3rd and 15 at your own 10. EPA is how much one play changed that number. A 50-yard bomb is a big plus. A pick-six is a very big minus.
- EPA per play
- A team's average EPA across all its plays. For an offense, above zero means it adds points and higher is better. For a defense, lower is better.
- Success rate
- The share of plays that keep an offense on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% of them on 2nd, all of them on 3rd and 4th. A 4-yard run on 1st and 10 is a success. A 4-yard run on 3rd and 6 isn't.
- Explosive play rate
- The share of plays that go for a run of 12 or more yards or a completion of 16 or more.
- Yards per play
- Total yards divided by plays: runs, passes and sacks.
- Sack rate
- Sacks divided by dropbacks. For an offense, lower is better. For a pass rush, higher is better.
- Turnover margin
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- RECEIPTS
- Record Explained: Coaching, Experience, Incoming talent, Pure luck and Toughness of Schedule. Where a team's wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. The record above or below .500 gets split four ways that add up to the real record: schedule (what an average team would win against that schedule), roster (the wins its talent and returning starters are worth on paper), coach (wins from playing better or worse than that roster) and luck (actual wins against the wins its SP+ says it should have). On team pages and in two charts.
- Schedule, Roster, Coach and Luck RECEIPTS
- The four parts of RECEIPTS. Schedule: what an average team would win against that schedule, minus .500. Roster: the extra wins from a roster this good on paper (247Sports talent and returning production). Coach: wins from playing better or worse than that roster should. Luck: actual wins against the wins SP+ expects. Recruiting rankings undersell the service academies, so their coaches get extra credit.
- Luck watch
- A tag for a team whose Luck RECEIPTS is 1.5 wins or more either way: "Lucky +2.4" or "Unlucky −1.6." Its record runs ahead of (or behind) how it's played, and lines and polls often follow records.
- Expected wins
- The wins a team should have, adding up its win chance in every game it played. Winning more than that usually means a lot of close wins, and close wins are mostly luck.
- Talent composite and blue-chip ratio
- 247Sports' score for a roster, built from every player's recruiting rating, with the best players counting most. The blue-chip ratio is the share of the roster that were 4- or 5-star recruits.
How we pick
How the picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
- Projected score
- Each team's SP+ offense, adjusted for how good the other team's defense is, plus special teams. The home team gets 2.5 points of home edge, split between the two scores.
- Win chance
- The projected margin turned into a percentage, assuming games usually land within about 14 points of the projection. A tie projection is 50%. A 14-point favorite is about 84%.
- The numbers' pick
- The team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. The confidence is the average of their three win chances. Nobody overrides it.
- Lock, Lean, Coin flip and Stay away
- How sure the numbers are about a straight-up pick. Lock: SP+, PRIME and Elo all favor the same team and the average win chance is 80% or more. Lean: the ratings favor the team, but not that strongly or not all three. Coin flip: the average win chance is under 55%. Stay away: injuries take the pick down. Key players count by what they do for the team: a starting quarterback out is 2 points, the feature back, top receiver or top pass rusher half a point, the No. 2 receiver or playmaker a quarter, and a short-handed line or secondary half a point. Doubtful counts half. When the picked team's points, minus the other side's, reach 1, the pick drops a tier (a Lock to a Lean, a Lean or Coin flip to Stay away); at 2 it drops two.
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We don't make the ratings; we put them side by side. SP+ is Bill Connelly's. SUPLEX is Nate Tice's. The play-by-play comes from CollegeFootballData.com and cfbfastR. The full list, and how we turn it into picks, is on Sources and methods.
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- 12 teams, under the 2026-27 rules. Automatic bids go to the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions, and to the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. Until the title games, each conference's current leader stands in as its champion.
- Notre Dame is in if you rank it in your top 12. Everyone else is at-large.
- Seeds go straight by your order. Seeds 1 to 4 get first-round byes; 5 to 12 play first-round games at the higher seed.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
This week
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Last week
All-time picks record
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? The numbers' pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. The numbers' and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
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Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
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SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Conference depth
Projected bracket
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The field and the bubble
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How the field is built
- 12 teams. Five get in automatically: the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions, plus the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt (champion or not).
- Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top 12.
- At-large. The remaining spots go to the highest-ranked teams left. If an automatic qualifier ranks outside the top 12, it takes the last at-large spot.
- Seeding follows the ranking, as it has since 2025. A conference champion isn't guaranteed a bye.
- Champions mid-season. "Current conference leader" uses the best conference record so far, with ties broken by the chosen rating. "Highest-rated team" picks the best-rated team in each conference instead.
- Composite averages SP+, PRIME and strength of record after putting each on a common scale.
- This is a projection from today's numbers. The real field is chosen by a committee on Dec. 6, after conference title games.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.