Hunter Provience stats, 2026
NC State (3–4, ACC). Tight end. 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.
Hunter Provience is a tight end for NC State (3–4). Among receivers and tight ends this season he's 228th in receiving TDs (2), 557th in explosive catches (16+ yards) (2), 591st in yards per catch (9.3), in 6 games. This week: California at NC State.
Bio
Who is Hunter Provience?
- Position
- Tight end
- Class
- Senior
- Height
- 6-5
- Weight
- 245 pounds
- Number
- No. 86
- Hometown
- San Diego, CA
- High school
- Christian (El Cajon, CA)
- Recruiting
- 3-star, No. 1953 in the 2023 class, signed with Montana State
- Transfers
- Montana State to NC State (2026)
From the 2026 roster, the 247Sports recruiting composite and the transfer portal, all via CollegeFootballData.com.
The season
Hunter Provience's receiving stats
He's 228th of 506 receivers and tight ends in receiving TDs (2) and 591st of 675 receivers and tight ends in yards per catch (9.3).
| Stat | Season | National rank |
|---|---|---|
| Receiving yards | 74 | 657th of 682 |
| Catches | 8 | 654th of 682 |
| Yards per catch | 9.3 | 591st of 675 |
| Receiving TDs | 2 | 228th of 506 |
The season
Hunter Provience's receiving efficiency and big plays
He's 557th of 657 receivers and tight ends in explosive catches (16+ yards) (2).
| Stat | Season | National rank |
|---|---|---|
| Explosive catches (16+ yards) | 2 | 557th of 657 |
Ranks are among every FBS receivers and tight end with the stat this season. Rates need a minimum sample (50 dropbacks for passing rates, 20 carries, 8 catches). From the play-by-play.
Charts
How does Hunter Provience compare, in charts?
Career
Hunter Provience's career stats
| Season | Team | Catches | Rec yds | Yds/catch | Rec TD | Rush yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Montana State | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | — |
| 2024 | Montana State | 8 | 118 | 14.8 | 1 | — |
| 2025 | Montana State | 11 | 135 | 12.3 | 1 | — |
| 2026 | NC State | 8 | 74 | 9.3 | 2 | 0 |
| Career | 30 | 330 | 11.0 | 4 | 0 |
Past seasons (back to 2022) from CollegeFootballData.com; 2026 from the play-by-play, games through Oct 24, 2026.
By school
How did Hunter Provience do at Montana State and NC State?
NC State this season is where he's been best: his best on 1 of the 2 rates below. That's touchdowns on 25.0% of his catches (9.1% at Montana State). His biggest season for receiving yards was 2025 at Montana State, with 135. The NC State numbers are 2026 so far, through Oct 24, 2026. The rates compare fairly with his other seasons; the totals are still growing.
| School | Seasons | Catches | Rec yds | Yds/catch | Rec TD | Rush yds | Explosive catches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State | 2023–2025 | 22 | 256 | 11.6 | 2 | — | 11.1% |
| NC State | 2026 (so far) | 8 | 74 | 9.3 | 2 | 0 | — |
* 2026 so far, through Oct 24, 2026.
Totals for his seasons at each school; rates worked out from those totals. Success and explosive rates count every play; EPA per play leaves out garbage time. Rates need the same minimum sample as the season stats.
Advanced
Hunter Provience's advanced stats by season
| Season | Team | EPA/play | Pass EPA/play | Explosive catches | Total EPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Montana State | +0.76 | +0.76 | 11.1% | 7.6 | 3% |
| 2026 | NC State | +0.90 | +0.90 | — | 7.2 | 2% |
EPA per play is the expected points a player adds on each of his plays (0 is average; glossary). Success means the play stayed on schedule: half the yards to go on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third or fourth. Explosive means a run of 12+ yards or a completion of 16+, as a share of his throws, carries or catches. Usage is the share of his team's plays that went to him. EPA and usage leave out garbage time; success and explosive rates count every play. From CollegeFootballData.com and cfbfastR.
Game log
Hunter Provience's game log, 2026
| Week | Opponent | Result | Receiving yards | Catches | Receiving TDs | Explosive catches (16+ yards) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Virginia | L 8–34 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | vs. Richmond | W 73–0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | at Vanderbilt | L 31–35 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | vs. App State | W 41–31 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | vs. Louisville | W 31–28 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | vs. Wake Forest | L 14–38 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
FAQ
Questions about Hunter Provience
What position does Hunter Provience play?
Hunter Provience plays tight end for NC State, which is 3–4 this season.
Where has Hunter Provience played?
Montana State (2023–2025) and NC State (2026).
Where is Hunter Provience from, and what year is he?
Hunter Provience is a senior tight end for NC State, listed at 6-5 and 245 pounds, from San Diego, CA.
How tall is Hunter Provience, and how much does he weigh?
Hunter Provience is listed at 6-5 and 245 pounds on NC State's 2026 roster.
What year is Hunter Provience?
Hunter Provience is a senior, from the 2023 recruiting class.
What are Hunter Provience's career stats?
Over 4 seasons (2023–2026), Hunter Provience has 30 catches for 330 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Who does Hunter Provience play for?
NC State (3–4, ACC), where he plays tight end and wears No. 86.
Is Hunter Provience eligible for the NFL Draft?
Yes. Players can enter the NFL Draft three years after high school, and Hunter Provience was in the 2023 class, so he's eligible for the 2027 draft.
How did Hunter Provience play in his last game?
Week 6 vs. Wake Forest: 9 receiving yards, 3 catches, 1 receiving TD. NC State lost 14–38.
Where did Hunter Provience go to high school?
Christian (El Cajon, CA). He was a 3-star recruit, No. 1953 in the 2023 class, signed with Montana State.
Is Hunter Provience a transfer?
Yes. He transferred from Montana State to NC State (2026).
What are Hunter Provience's stats this season?
74 receiving yards, 8 catches, 9.3 yards per catch, 2 receiving TDs, 2 explosive catches (16+ yards) in 6 games, through Oct 24, 2026.
How does Hunter Provience rank nationally?
Among FBS receivers and tight ends: 228th of 506 in receiving TDs, 557th of 657 in explosive catches (16+ yards), 591st of 675 in yards per catch.
When does Hunter Provience play next?
NC State hosts California Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET on ACC Network. The numbers' pick: NC State.
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College football, 2026 season
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
Where the data comes from
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
How we turn it into projections
- Projected score. Each team's SP+ offense, plus how far the opponent's SP+ defense is from average, plus special teams. The home team gets half of a 2.5-point home edge added and the visitor half subtracted.
- Win chance. The projected margin turned into a probability, assuming games usually land within about 14 points of the projection. A 0-point margin is 50%; 14 points is about 84%.
- The three ratings. SP+ is built from every play this season. PRIME is a possession-efficiency rating. Elo uses only final scores and carries over from year to year, with 55 Elo points of home edge.
- The numbers' pick. The team at least two of the three ratings favor, with our confidence the average of their three win chances for that team. On the game cards, a pick is a lock when all three favor the same team and the average win chance is 80% or more, a coin flip when it's under 55%, and a lean otherwise. Injuries can drop the tier: each key player out counts by what he does for his team (a starting quarterback is 2 points, the feature back or top receiver half a point, doubtful counts half), the other side's injuries offset, and 1 point drops a tier, 2 points two. The game page shows it as an injury alert. Nobody overrides the numbers' pick.
- CFB Charts Top 25. SP+, PRIME and strength of record, each converted to a common scale and averaged.
- Playoff picture. The 2026-27 rules: automatic bids for the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions (the current conference leader stands in until the title games) and for the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top 12. The rest are at-large teams by the chosen rating, and all 12 are seeded straight by that rating, so the top four get the byes. Once the committee's rankings are out (first release Tuesday, Nov. 3), they become the default ranking.
- Missing data. When a team's play-by-play is clearly incomplete (fewer than 45 offensive plays a game), we hide its offense stats instead of showing bad numbers.
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
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Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
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What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
- SP+
- Bill Connelly's rating, built from play-by-play efficiency and explosiveness and adjusted for who each team played. The number is how many points better than an average FBS team a team is on a neutral field. SP+ 20 beats SP+ 10 by about 10.
- PRIME
- A rating built possession by possession: how well a team turns drives into points and keeps opponents from doing the same, adjusted for opponents. Zero is an average FBS team.
- Elo
- A results-only rating. Every team has a number, 1500 is average, and the winner takes points from the loser after every game. Beat a great team and you take a lot. Beat a bad one and you take a few. It carries part of last season over, so it's slow to catch a team that changed.
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- How impressive a record is, given who a team played: how many more games it won than an average team would have against the same schedule. It grades the resume. SP+ and PRIME grade how good the team is.
- Strength of schedule
- How hard a team's opponents have been so far.
- Opponent-adjusted
- Corrected for who a team played. Hanging 50 on an FCS team counts for less than hanging 30 on Georgia.
- EPA (expected points added)
- Every down, distance and spot on the field is worth some number of points on average. 1st and 10 at the opponent's 20 is worth a lot more than 3rd and 15 at your own 10. EPA is how much one play changed that number. A 50-yard bomb is a big plus. A pick-six is a very big minus.
- EPA per play
- A team's average EPA across all its plays. For an offense, above zero means it adds points and higher is better. For a defense, lower is better.
- Success rate
- The share of plays that keep an offense on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% of them on 2nd, all of them on 3rd and 4th. A 4-yard run on 1st and 10 is a success. A 4-yard run on 3rd and 6 isn't.
- Explosive play rate
- The share of plays that go for a run of 12 or more yards or a completion of 16 or more.
- Yards per play
- Total yards divided by plays: runs, passes and sacks.
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- Record Explained: Coaching, Experience, Incoming talent, Pure luck and Toughness of Schedule. Where a team's wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. The record above or below .500 gets split four ways that add up to the real record: schedule (what an average team would win against that schedule), roster (the wins its talent and returning starters are worth on paper), coach (wins from playing better or worse than that roster) and luck (actual wins against the wins its SP+ says it should have). On team pages and in two charts.
- Schedule, Roster, Coach and Luck RECEIPTS
- The four parts of RECEIPTS. Schedule: what an average team would win against that schedule, minus .500. Roster: the extra wins from a roster this good on paper (247Sports talent and returning production). Coach: wins from playing better or worse than that roster should. Luck: actual wins against the wins SP+ expects. Recruiting rankings undersell the service academies, so their coaches get extra credit.
- Luck watch
- A tag for a team whose Luck RECEIPTS is 1.5 wins or more either way: "Lucky +2.4" or "Unlucky −1.6." Its record runs ahead of (or behind) how it's played, and lines and polls often follow records.
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- The wins a team should have, adding up its win chance in every game it played. Winning more than that usually means a lot of close wins, and close wins are mostly luck.
- Talent composite and blue-chip ratio
- 247Sports' score for a roster, built from every player's recruiting rating, with the best players counting most. The blue-chip ratio is the share of the roster that were 4- or 5-star recruits.
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How the picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
- Projected score
- Each team's SP+ offense, adjusted for how good the other team's defense is, plus special teams. The home team gets 2.5 points of home edge, split between the two scores.
- Win chance
- The projected margin turned into a percentage, assuming games usually land within about 14 points of the projection. A tie projection is 50%. A 14-point favorite is about 84%.
- The numbers' pick
- The team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. The confidence is the average of their three win chances. Nobody overrides it.
- Lock, Lean, Coin flip and Stay away
- How sure the numbers are about a straight-up pick. Lock: SP+, PRIME and Elo all favor the same team and the average win chance is 80% or more. Lean: the ratings favor the team, but not that strongly or not all three. Coin flip: the average win chance is under 55%. Stay away: injuries take the pick down. Key players count by what they do for the team: a starting quarterback out is 2 points, the feature back, top receiver or top pass rusher half a point, the No. 2 receiver or playmaker a quarter, and a short-handed line or secondary half a point. Doubtful counts half. When the picked team's points, minus the other side's, reach 1, the pick drops a tier (a Lock to a Lean, a Lean or Coin flip to Stay away); at 2 it drops two.
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- 12 teams, under the 2026-27 rules. Automatic bids go to the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions, and to the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. Until the title games, each conference's current leader stands in as its champion.
- Notre Dame is in if you rank it in your top 12. Everyone else is at-large.
- Seeds go straight by your order. Seeds 1 to 4 get first-round byes; 5 to 12 play first-round games at the higher seed.
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Drag a team by its handle (⋮⋮) to reseed it; with a keyboard, focus the handle and use the up and down arrow keys. Pick a different team from a row's menu to swap it in. Your field is saved in this browser.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
This week
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Last week
All-time picks record
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? The numbers' pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. The numbers' and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
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Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
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SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Conference depth
Projected bracket
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The field and the bubble
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How the field is built
- 12 teams. Five get in automatically: the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions, plus the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt (champion or not).
- Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top 12.
- At-large. The remaining spots go to the highest-ranked teams left. If an automatic qualifier ranks outside the top 12, it takes the last at-large spot.
- Seeding follows the ranking, as it has since 2025. A conference champion isn't guaranteed a bye.
- Champions mid-season. "Current conference leader" uses the best conference record so far, with ties broken by the chosen rating. "Highest-rated team" picks the best-rated team in each conference instead.
- Composite averages SP+, PRIME and strength of record after putting each on a common scale.
- This is a projection from today's numbers. The real field is chosen by a committee on Dec. 6, after conference title games.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.