This week's picks

Louisiana Tech vs. South Alabama Prediction, Week 9 2026

College Football Charts
Data updatedOct 31, 2026
Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

Share as an image

Image style

Louisiana Tech at South Alabama

Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET, Hancock Whitney Stadium.

The numbers say: Louisiana Tech, 62% to win.

The game

KickoffSat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET
TVESPN+
WhereHancock Whitney Stadium
Weather80°, cloudy, wind 8 mph
LineLouisiana Tech −6, total 58.5
Line movementOpened Louisiana Tech −3.5; moved 2.5 points toward Louisiana Tech. Total opened 56.5, up 2.
SeriesLouisiana Tech leads 2–1
Last meetingSouth Alabama 38–14 in 2022

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+Louisiana Tech by 6.468%63
PRIMELouisiana Tech by 6.668%
EloLouisiana Tech56%
The lineLouisiana Tech −6, opened −3.558.5, opened 56.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Fri, Oct 30, 7:43 PM ET.

Who wins, Louisiana Tech or South Alabama?

The numbers say: Louisiana Tech. 64% chance to win

Which matchups decide Louisiana Tech vs. South Alabama?

All three ratings favor Louisiana Tech, by 6.4 to 6.6 points. Louisiana Tech's best matchup is its early-down offense, 53rd in SUPLEX, against South Alabama's early-down defense at 134th. South Alabama's way back in is its 3rd down offense, 33rd in 3rd down conversion, against Louisiana Tech's 3rd down defense at 76th.

Louisiana Tech with the ball

South Alabama with the ball

Who's out for Louisiana Tech and South Alabama?

Louisiana Tech

South Alabama

How Louisiana Tech and South Alabama compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Louisiana Tech and South Alabama are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Louisiana Tech's and South Alabama's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Louisiana Tech and South Alabama?

On a neutral field, SP+ has Louisiana Tech 8.9 points better (84th to 115th). PRIME also has Louisiana Tech ahead, by 9.1. Elo, which only sees results, also has Louisiana Tech ahead (78th to 100th).

Louisiana TechSouth Alabama
SP+ overall-2.6 (84th)-11.5 (115th)
SP+ offense24.6 (85th)26.5 (72nd)
SP+ defense26.8 (74th)37.5 (133rd)
SP+ special teams-0.3 (104th)-0.5 (124th)
PRIME net0.8 (64th)-8.3 (100th)
PRIME offense-0.41 (68th)2.09 (45th)
PRIME defense1.83 (53rd)-10.80 (134th)
PRIME SOS-4.7 (91st)-6.7 (108th)
PRIME SOR0.7 (49th)-0.6 (86th)
Elo1450 (78th)1354 (100th)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Louisiana Tech's offense ranks 71st in adjusted EPA per play, and the South Alabama defense it faces ranks 127th in EPA per play allowed. South Alabama's offense ranks 34th against Louisiana Tech's 21st-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Louisiana Tech's offense against South Alabama's defense. The biggest edge on the board is South Alabama's big plays: 7th in adjusted explosiveness, against Louisiana Tech's 124th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.

Louisiana TechSouth Alabama
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.10 (71st)+0.16 (34th)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.22 (42nd)+0.24 (30th)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.02 (114th)+0.13 (19th)
Success rate (adjusted)41.5% (68th)41.4% (71st)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)45.1% (97th)46.4% (75th)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)32.4% (29th)31.7% (40th)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.96 (28th)0.98 (7th)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)2.77 (122nd)2.94 (76th)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.13 (71st)1.14 (63rd)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.03 (21st)+0.21 (127th)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.09 (10th)+0.24 (98th)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.05 (53rd)+0.16 (131st)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)39.6% (35th)49.9% (136th)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.97 (124th)0.98 (129th)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)2.70 (9th)3.07 (107th)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)1.25 (98th)1.63 (137th)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Louisiana Tech or South Alabama?

Louisiana Tech is better throwing (31st in EPA per pass) than running (103rd). South Alabama's pass defense ranks 105th, so that's a mismatch. South Alabama is better running (26th in EPA per rush) than throwing (43rd). Louisiana Tech's run defense ranks 66th, so that's an edge. On third down, Louisiana Tech has the edge: its offense ranks 31st in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 111th.

Louisiana TechSouth Alabama
EPA per play+0.17 (55th)+0.19 (44th)
EPA per pass+0.37 (31st)+0.30 (43rd)
EPA per rush+0.02 (103rd)+0.19 (26th)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.60 (31st)+0.45 (71st)
EPA per play allowed+0.02 (33rd)+0.24 (124th)
EPA per pass allowed0.00 (13th)+0.29 (105th)
EPA per rush allowed+0.06 (66th)+0.21 (128th)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.31 (42nd)+0.54 (111th)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Louisiana Tech or South Alabama?

Louisiana Tech outscores FBS opponents by 11.3 a game, and South Alabama by 2.7. Louisiana Tech's offense ranks 46th in scoring, and the South Alabama defense it faces ranks 123rd in points allowed. South Alabama's offense ranks 33rd against Louisiana Tech's 44th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Louisiana Tech's offense against South Alabama's defense.

Louisiana TechSouth Alabama
Points scored32.3 (46th)35.1 (33rd)
Points allowed21.0 (44th)32.4 (123rd)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Louisiana Tech's best matchup is early downs: its offense ranks 53rd in SUPLEX, and South Alabama's defense ranks 134th in SUPLEX allowed. That's a mismatch. South Alabama's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 33rd in 3rd down conversion rate, and Louisiana Tech's defense ranks 76th in 3rd down conversions allowed.

Louisiana TechSouth Alabama
Pass yards / game252.9 (44th)204.7 (97th)
Rush yards / game159.3 (81st)241.3 (8th)
Yards per play6.19 (66th)6.57 (38th)
Yards per carry4.83 (92nd)5.25 (67th)
Yards per attempt8.08 (47th)9.67 (7th)
Completion %69.4% (33rd)66.1% (48th)
Success rate41.6% (88th)46.4% (37th)
Explosive play rate12.4% (65th)13.0% (47th)
3rd down conversion44.1% (45th)45.9% (33rd)
Sack rate (taken)6.8% (95th)3.0% (19th)
INT rate (thrown)1.4% (32nd)0.8% (13th)
SUPLEX57.9% (53rd)57.6% (58th)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Louisiana Tech's defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 26th in SUPLEX allowed, and South Alabama's offense is middle of the pack in SUPLEX (58th).

Louisiana TechSouth Alabama
Pass yards allowed / game196.0 (44th)272.8 (130th)
Rush yards allowed / game142.3 (59th)125.3 (32nd)
Yards per play allowed5.41 (45th)6.79 (117th)
Yards per carry allowed4.27 (36th)5.41 (106th)
Yards per attempt allowed7.34 (74th)8.02 (92nd)
Success rate allowed36.3% (22nd)47.4% (119th)
Explosive plays allowed11.0% (68th)13.6% (111th)
3rd downs allowed39.1% (76th)44.4% (110th)
Sack rate (generated)8.8% (17th)4.2% (116th)
INT rate (generated)5.3% (6th)2.9% (53rd)
SUPLEX allowed47.2% (26th)64.8% (134th)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

They split these evenly, 6 each. The biggest gap is stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line), where South Alabama ranks 25th and Louisiana Tech 123rd.

Louisiana TechSouth Alabama
Big Uglies: offensive line40.5 (128th)54.5 (35th)
Big Uglies: defensive front63.9 (7th)45.7 (94th)
Line yards per carry2.68 (123rd)3.08 (63rd)
Line yards allowed per carry2.51 (10th)3.05 (88th)
Second-level yards per carry0.99 (98th)1.05 (83rd)
Open-field yards per carry1.46 (39th)1.05 (87th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)22.1% (123rd)14.6% (25th)
Stuff rate (defense)24.2% (14th)18.7% (73rd)
Power success (short yardage)60.0% (129th)77.5% (37th)
Power success allowed61.1% (18th)68.6% (55th)
Front-seven havoc allowed10.7% (108th)9.0% (68th)
Front-seven havoc14.8% (5th)8.9% (86th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Neither team has a real turnover edge: Louisiana Tech is +0.9 a game and South Alabama +1.0. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and South Alabama's takeaways lean on them (0.7 of 1.6 a game).

Louisiana TechSouth Alabama
Interceptions thrown / game0.43 (25th)0.43 (25th)
Fumbles lost / game0.71 (99th)0.14 (3rd)
Giveaways / game1.14 (52nd)0.57 (7th)
Interceptions / game1.43 (6th)0.86 (45th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.57 (51st)0.71 (24th)
Takeaways / game2.00 (6th)1.57 (28th)
Turnover margin / game+0.9 (15th)+1.0 (9th)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

South Alabama has the more talented roster (107th in the 247Sports talent composite; Louisiana Tech is 124th). But Louisiana Tech plays further above its talent: +4.9 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to South Alabama's −5.9.

Louisiana TechSouth Alabama
Talent composite543.0 (124th)573.4 (107th)
Blue-chip ratio1.7% (120th)0.0% (126th)
Players on roster108 (87th)117 (29th)
Rated by 247Sports58 (123rd)70 (98th)
5-star players0 (37th)0 (37th)
4-star players1 (119th)0 (126th)
3-star players54 (95th)70 (28th)
Below 3-star3 (53rd)0 (113th)
2026 transfers in11 (127th)12 (124th)
Transfer share19.0% (113th)17.1% (118th)
SP+ vs. talent+4.9 (38th)-5.9 (106th)
Returning production63.9% (37th)78.6% (14th)
Returning passing production99.1% (19th)95.1% (29th)
Returning rushing production78.5% (41st)61.7% (54th)
Returning receiving production43.9% (57th)80.2% (12th)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)99 (99th)77 (77th)
Recruiting rank, last four classes100.0 (103rd)92.2 (87th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Louisiana Tech is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+1.1). South Alabama is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.3). Louisiana Tech's record is running 1.1 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.

Louisiana TechSouth Alabama
RECEIPTS (total)+1.5 (30th)+0.5 (57th)
Schedule RECEIPTS+0.7 (55th)+1.3 (26th)
Roster RECEIPTS-0.6 (108th)-0.5 (100th)
Coach RECEIPTS+0.3 (57th)-1.1 (116th)
Luck RECEIPTS+1.1 (8th)+0.8 (24th)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Louisiana Tech at South Alabama: questions people ask

Louisiana Tech vs. South Alabama prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick Louisiana Tech, 64% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Louisiana Tech's best matchup is its early-down offense, 53rd in SUPLEX, against South Alabama's early-down defense at 134th.

Where can I watch Louisiana Tech vs. South Alabama, and what time is it?

Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET at Hancock Whitney Stadium. It's on ESPN+.

What's the projected score of Louisiana Tech vs. South Alabama?

SP+ projects Louisiana Tech 35–28. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Louisiana Tech at South Alabama?

DraftKings has Louisiana Tech −6, total 58.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Louisiana Tech vs. South Alabama series history?

Louisiana Tech leads 2–1. Last meeting: South Alabama won 38–14 in 2022.

Who are the players to watch in Louisiana Tech vs. South Alabama?

Louisiana Tech: Blake Baker (1,172 passing yards), Andrew Burnette (348 rushing yards) and Jalen Mickens (586 receiving yards). South Alabama: Jared Hollins (1,064 passing yards), Keenan Phillips (514 rushing yards) and Brendan Jenkins (430 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Louisiana Tech at South Alabama?

Louisiana Tech's is Blake Baker (1,172 passing yards this season); South Alabama's is Jared Hollins (1,064 passing yards this season).

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Louisiana Tech and South Alabama: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.