This week's picks

Troy vs. James Madison Prediction and Pick, Week 9 2026

College Football Charts
Data updatedOct 31, 2026
Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

Share as an image

Image style

Troy at James Madison

Week 9, Thu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM ET, Bridgeforth Stadium.

The numbers say: James Madison, 93% to win.

The game

KickoffThu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM ET
TVESPN2
WhereBridgeforth Stadium
Weather56°, clear, wind 0 mph
LineJames Madison −19.5, total 51.5
Line movementOpened James Madison −17.5; moved 2 points toward James Madison. Total opened 52.5, down 1.
SeriesJames Madison leads 2–0
Last meetingJames Madison 31–14 in 2025

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+James Madison by 23.395%50
PRIMEJames Madison by 12.581%
EloJames Madison96%
The lineJames Madison −19.5, opened −17.551.5, opened 52.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Thu, Oct 29, 4:16 PM ET.

Who wins, Troy or James Madison?

The numbers say: James Madison. 91% chance to win

Which matchups decide Troy vs. James Madison?

All three ratings favor James Madison, by 12.5 to 23.3 points, and it isn't close. James Madison's best matchup is its pass protection, 17th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Troy's pass rush at 118th. Troy's way back in is its 3rd down defense, 17th in 3rd downs allowed, against James Madison's 3rd down offense at 99th.

Troy with the ball

James Madison with the ball

Who's out for Troy and James Madison?

Troy

James Madison

How Troy and James Madison compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Troy and James Madison are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Troy's and James Madison's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Troy and James Madison?

On a neutral field, SP+ has James Madison 20.8 points better (29th to 108th). PRIME also has James Madison ahead, by 10.0. Elo, which only sees results, also has James Madison ahead (14th to 105th).

TroyJames Madison
SP+ overall-9.9 (108th)10.9 (29th)
SP+ offense19.1 (112th)32.5 (33rd)
SP+ defense28.8 (91st)21.7 (37th)
SP+ special teams-0.2 (92nd)0.1 (54th)
PRIME net-9.5 (107th)0.5 (64th)
PRIME offense-5.47 (107th)-2.11 (82nd)
PRIME defense-2.18 (89th)1.68 (54th)
PRIME SOS-6.3 (103rd)-7.2 (116th)
PRIME SOR-1.2 (101st)1.0 (40th)
Elo1314 (105th)1817 (14th)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Troy's offense ranks 102nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the James Madison defense it faces ranks 61st in EPA per play allowed. James Madison's offense ranks 22nd against Troy's 106th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is James Madison's offense against Troy's defense. The biggest edge on the board is James Madison's passing game: 23rd in adjusted EPA per pass, against Troy's 92nd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Troy's defense falls from 36th to 106th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.

TroyJames Madison
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.06 (102nd)+0.19 (22nd)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.12 (118th)+0.28 (23rd)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.06 (68th)+0.10 (39th)
Success rate (adjusted)39.7% (93rd)42.7% (58th)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)46.3% (76th)46.7% (70th)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)27.5% (121st)33.0% (21st)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.95 (37th)0.93 (94th)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)2.96 (65th)3.07 (39th)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.17 (56th)1.37 (13th)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.16 (106th)+0.09 (61st)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.23 (92nd)+0.17 (54th)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.10 (99th)+0.01 (31st)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)45.8% (115th)41.9% (70th)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.92 (27th)0.89 (8th)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)3.05 (98th)2.97 (71st)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)1.16 (81st)0.96 (17th)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Troy or James Madison?

Troy is better running (66th in EPA per rush) than throwing (128th). James Madison's run defense ranks 18th, so the defense has the better of it. James Madison is about as good throwing (41st in EPA per pass) as running (47th).

TroyJames Madison
EPA per play+0.03 (112th)+0.19 (44th)
EPA per pass−0.02 (128th)+0.31 (41st)
EPA per rush+0.10 (66th)+0.14 (47th)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.21 (123rd)+0.38 (91st)
EPA per play allowed+0.03 (36th)−0.01 (20th)
EPA per pass allowed+0.08 (37th)+0.08 (37th)
EPA per rush allowed+0.06 (66th)−0.07 (18th)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.26 (29th)+0.45 (86th)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Troy or James Madison?

Troy is outscored by 2.0 a game, and James Madison by 23.2. Troy's offense ranks 105th in scoring, and the James Madison defense it faces ranks 25th in points allowed. James Madison's offense ranks 5th against Troy's 76th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is James Madison's offense against Troy's defense.

TroyJames Madison
Points scored22.9 (105th)41.4 (5th)
Points allowed24.9 (76th)18.2 (25th)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Troy has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 40th, against a defense ranked 38th in yards per carry allowed. James Madison's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 24th in yards per carry, and Troy's defense ranks 56th in yards per carry allowed.

TroyJames Madison
Pass yards / game179.7 (118th)249.9 (46th)
Rush yards / game211.7 (23rd)205.4 (27th)
Yards per play5.98 (85th)6.65 (36th)
Yards per carry5.53 (40th)5.89 (24th)
Yards per attempt7.19 (87th)7.66 (68th)
Completion %62.9% (71st)60.5% (84th)
Success rate41.9% (87th)45.4% (51st)
Explosive play rate10.5% (111th)14.2% (28th)
3rd down conversion37.0% (89th)35.6% (99th)
Sack rate (taken)7.9% (108th)3.0% (17th)
INT rate (thrown)2.9% (93rd)0.8% (12th)
SUPLEX54.4% (83rd)57.1% (62nd)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Troy's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 17th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and James Madison's offense is bottom-40 in 3rd down conversion rate (99th). That's a mismatch. James Madison's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 35th in sack rate, and Troy's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding sacks (108th). That's a mismatch.

TroyJames Madison
Pass yards allowed / game208.7 (66th)216.6 (78th)
Rush yards allowed / game133.3 (44th)119.8 (27th)
Yards per play allowed5.33 (41st)5.54 (55th)
Yards per carry allowed4.62 (56th)4.30 (38th)
Yards per attempt allowed6.16 (30th)7.13 (73rd)
Success rate allowed38.5% (48th)37.9% (40th)
Explosive plays allowed10.2% (48th)10.3% (52nd)
3rd downs allowed30.3% (17th)36.4% (50th)
Sack rate (generated)4.0% (118th)7.6% (35th)
INT rate (generated)1.7% (100th)2.9% (55th)
SUPLEX allowed53.2% (63rd)48.5% (31st)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

James Madison has the better number in 9 of 12. The biggest gap is power success allowed, where James Madison ranks 35th and Troy 128th.

TroyJames Madison
Big Uglies: offensive line49.9 (74th)58.8 (13th)
Big Uglies: defensive front44.0 (106th)51.2 (61st)
Line yards per carry3.04 (76th)3.15 (48th)
Line yards allowed per carry2.84 (58th)2.80 (56th)
Second-level yards per carry1.15 (52nd)1.06 (79th)
Open-field yards per carry1.40 (45th)1.47 (35th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)16.9% (60th)14.2% (22nd)
Stuff rate (defense)18.3% (78th)17.7% (84th)
Power success (short yardage)74.4% (57th)77.5% (37th)
Power success allowed82.8% (128th)65.4% (35th)
Front-seven havoc allowed9.0% (68th)6.3% (15th)
Front-seven havoc10.1% (55th)9.9% (60th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Neither team has a real turnover edge: Troy is +0.4 a game and James Madison +0.2. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Troy's takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.6 a game).

TroyJames Madison
Interceptions thrown / game0.63 (51st)0.56 (39th)
Fumbles lost / game0.63 (89th)0.67 (98th)
Giveaways / game1.25 (63rd)1.22 (62nd)
Interceptions / game0.88 (38th)0.78 (58th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.75 (15th)0.67 (41st)
Takeaways / game1.63 (23rd)1.44 (40th)
Turnover margin / game+0.4 (41st)+0.2 (60th)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

Troy has the more talented roster (96th in the 247Sports talent composite; James Madison is 101st). But James Madison plays further above its talent: +15.6 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Troy's −5.7.

TroyJames Madison
Talent composite596.2 (96th)588.3 (101st)
Blue-chip ratio4.2% (98th)6.6% (87th)
Players on roster104 (112th)109 (82nd)
Rated by 247Sports71 (93rd)61 (118th)
5-star players0 (37th)0 (37th)
4-star players3 (94th)4 (88th)
3-star players64 (56th)53 (99th)
Below 3-star4 (38th)4 (38th)
2026 transfers in15 (114th)41 (11th)
Transfer share21.1% (102nd)67.2% (7th)
SP+ vs. talent-5.7 (105th)+15.6 (7th)
Returning production35.3% (79th)8.0% (122nd)
Returning passing production102.8% (7th)9.3% (84th)
Returning rushing production135.7% (7th)6.6% (106th)
Returning receiving production11.6% (121st)8.6% (128th)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)76 (76th)80 (80th)
Recruiting rank, last four classes85.2 (79th)111.2 (114th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Troy is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.6). James Madison is +3.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+2.1). Troy's record is 1.0 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.

TroyJames Madison
RECEIPTS (total)-0.5 (89th)+3.0 (4th)
Schedule RECEIPTS+1.6 (17th)+1.7 (12th)
Roster RECEIPTS-0.3 (92nd)-0.8 (118th)
Coach RECEIPTS-0.8 (101st)+2.1 (6th)
Luck RECEIPTS-1.0 (119th)-0.1 (72nd)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Troy at James Madison: questions people ask

Troy vs. James Madison prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick James Madison, 91% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. James Madison's best matchup is its pass protection, 17th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Troy's pass rush at 118th.

Where can I watch Troy vs. James Madison, and what time is it?

Thu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM ET at Bridgeforth Stadium. It's on ESPN2.

What's the projected score of Troy vs. James Madison?

SP+ projects James Madison 37–13. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Troy at James Madison?

DraftKings has James Madison −19.5, total 51.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Troy vs. James Madison series history?

James Madison leads 2–0. Last meeting: James Madison won 31–14 in 2025.

Who are the players to watch in Troy vs. James Madison?

Troy: Will Crowder (1,174 passing yards), Gavin Griffin (436 rushing yards) and TK Keyes (288 receiving yards). James Madison: Camden Coleman (1,749 passing yards), George Pettaway (785 rushing yards) and Corey Scott (386 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Troy at James Madison?

Troy's is Will Crowder (1,174 passing yards this season); James Madison's is Camden Coleman (1,749 passing yards this season).

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Troy and James Madison: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.