This week's picks

Wisconsin vs. Iowa Prediction and Pick, Week 9 2026

College Football Charts
Data updatedOct 31, 2026
Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

Share as an image

Image style

Wisconsin at Iowa

Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET, Kinnick Stadium.

The numbers say: Iowa, 65% to win.

The game

RivalryHeartland Trophy
KickoffSat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET
TVFox
WhereKinnick Stadium
Weather60°, cloudy, wind 7 mph
LineIowa −2.5, total 36.5
Line movementOpened Iowa −4.5; moved 2 points toward Wisconsin. Total opened 39.5, down 3.
SeriesWisconsin leads 49–48–2
Last meetingIowa 37–0 in 2025

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+Iowa by 6.267%30
PRIMEWisconsin by 0.551%
EloIowa75%
The lineIowa −2.5, opened −4.536.5, opened 39.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Fri, Oct 30, 7:43 PM ET.

Who wins, Wisconsin or Iowa?

The numbers say: Iowa. 64% chance to win

Which matchups decide Wisconsin vs. Iowa?

SP+ and Elo take Iowa, but PRIME has Wisconsin by 0.5. Iowa's best matchup is its pass protection, 7th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Wisconsin's pass rush at 110th. Wisconsin's way back in is its defense, 3rd in EPA per play allowed, against Iowa's offense at 105th. We left out the edges built on Moulton, who's out.

Wisconsin with the ball

Iowa with the ball

Who's out for Wisconsin and Iowa?

Wisconsin

Iowa

How Wisconsin and Iowa compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Wisconsin and Iowa are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Wisconsin's and Iowa's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Wisconsin and Iowa?

On a neutral field, SP+ has Iowa 3.7 points better (23rd to 40th). PRIME has Wisconsin by 3.0 instead. The two ratings split on Wisconsin's offense: 93rd in SP+, 48th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, also has Iowa ahead (11th to 31st).

WisconsinIowa
SP+ overall8.7 (40th)12.4 (23rd)
SP+ offense23.6 (93rd)27.3 (62nd)
SP+ defense15.1 (9th)15.3 (10th)
SP+ special teams0.2 (42nd)0.4 (11th)
PRIME net13.7 (17th)10.7 (28th)
PRIME offense1.54 (48th)-0.52 (71st)
PRIME defense11.23 (6th)8.15 (17th)
PRIME SOS1.7 (29th)-0.1 (45th)
PRIME SOR1.8 (22nd)1.5 (31st)
Elo1708 (31st)1846 (11th)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Wisconsin's offense ranks 57th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Iowa defense it faces ranks 45th in EPA per play allowed. Iowa's offense ranks 105th against Wisconsin's 3rd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. Adjust for opponents and Iowa's offense falls from 71st to 105th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.

WisconsinIowa
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.12 (57th)+0.06 (105th)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.17 (86th)+0.21 (53rd)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.11 (32nd)+0.01 (115th)
Success rate (adjusted)41.6% (67th)40.8% (79th)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)47.3% (57th)47.4% (54th)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)29.5% (91st)27.5% (122nd)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.97 (22nd)0.94 (57th)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)3.02 (45th)2.95 (72nd)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)0.97 (117th)1.11 (74th)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)−0.04 (3rd)+0.07 (45th)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.01 (1st)+0.26 (109th)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.03 (42nd)−0.05 (4th)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)35.9% (8th)36.3% (14th)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.91 (20th)0.87 (2nd)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)2.76 (19th)2.75 (16th)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)0.85 (5th)0.86 (6th)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Wisconsin or Iowa?

Wisconsin is better running (34th in EPA per rush) than throwing (110th). Iowa's run defense ranks 4th, so the defense has the better of it. Iowa is about as good throwing (51st in EPA per pass) as running (64th).

WisconsinIowa
EPA per play+0.11 (79th)+0.13 (71st)
EPA per pass+0.09 (110th)+0.27 (51st)
EPA per rush+0.17 (34th)+0.11 (64th)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.50 (58th)+0.25 (117th)
EPA per play allowed−0.07 (8th)+0.03 (36th)
EPA per pass allowed−0.08 (6th)+0.30 (109th)
EPA per rush allowed+0.01 (51st)−0.16 (4th)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.37 (58th)+0.24 (24th)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Wisconsin or Iowa?

Wisconsin outscores FBS opponents by 11.7 a game, and Iowa by 13.7. Wisconsin's offense ranks 80th in scoring, and the Iowa defense it faces ranks 8th in points allowed. Iowa's offense ranks 75th against Wisconsin's 11th-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face.

WisconsinIowa
Points scored27.0 (80th)28.0 (75th)
Points allowed15.3 (11th)14.3 (8th)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Wisconsin's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 26th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Iowa's defense ranks 54th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Iowa has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 23rd, against a defense ranked 6th in yards per carry allowed.

WisconsinIowa
Pass yards / game178.4 (121st)209.3 (93rd)
Rush yards / game147.7 (94th)179.3 (54th)
Yards per play6.19 (68th)5.73 (101st)
Yards per carry4.72 (102nd)5.92 (23rd)
Yards per attempt8.80 (27th)5.70 (128th)
Completion %69.0% (34th)51.4% (124th)
Success rate43.4% (74th)40.2% (102nd)
Explosive play rate11.9% (79th)11.6% (84th)
3rd down conversion46.9% (26th)31.1% (127th)
Sack rate (taken)5.3% (68th)2.3% (7th)
INT rate (thrown)3.5% (111th)1.9% (49th)
SUPLEX50.0% (106th)57.9% (54th)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Wisconsin's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 1st in explosive plays allowed, and Iowa's offense is middle of the pack in explosive play rate (84th). That's a mismatch. Iowa's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 4th in yards per carry allowed, and Wisconsin's offense is bottom-40 in yards per carry (102nd). That's a mismatch.

WisconsinIowa
Pass yards allowed / game189.3 (34th)201.0 (49th)
Rush yards allowed / game114.0 (16th)102.0 (7th)
Yards per play allowed4.21 (1st)5.32 (38th)
Yards per carry allowed3.47 (6th)3.42 (4th)
Yards per attempt allowed5.06 (2nd)8.38 (106th)
Success rate allowed35.7% (19th)38.1% (42nd)
Explosive plays allowed5.6% (1st)10.0% (39th)
3rd downs allowed36.7% (52nd)36.8% (54th)
Sack rate (generated)4.4% (110th)11.6% (2nd)
INT rate (generated)2.7% (62nd)3.0% (51st)
SUPLEX allowed43.0% (8th)48.2% (30th)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

Iowa has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is stuff rate (defense), where Iowa ranks 33rd and Wisconsin 117th.

WisconsinIowa
Big Uglies: offensive line52.9 (48th)53.2 (44th)
Big Uglies: defensive front48.9 (76th)61.0 (10th)
Line yards per carry3.04 (77th)3.23 (38th)
Line yards allowed per carry2.75 (48th)2.53 (11th)
Second-level yards per carry0.92 (117th)1.18 (38th)
Open-field yards per carry1.06 (84th)1.47 (33rd)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)16.0% (38th)16.6% (53rd)
Stuff rate (defense)14.8% (117th)21.5% (33rd)
Power success (short yardage)72.0% (70th)63.2% (123rd)
Power success allowed66.7% (39th)65.0% (31st)
Front-seven havoc allowed8.7% (57th)6.3% (15th)
Front-seven havoc8.0% (108th)10.5% (46th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Wisconsin is +0.3 in turnover margin a game and Iowa is −0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for Wisconsin. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.

WisconsinIowa
Interceptions thrown / game0.71 (61st)0.71 (61st)
Fumbles lost / game0.14 (3rd)0.29 (20th)
Giveaways / game0.86 (25th)1.00 (36th)
Interceptions / game1.00 (22nd)0.71 (66th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.14 (122nd)0.14 (122nd)
Takeaways / game1.14 (67th)0.86 (108th)
Turnover margin / game+0.3 (48th)-0.1 (81st)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

Wisconsin has the more talented roster (30th in the 247Sports talent composite; Iowa is 44th). But Iowa plays further above its talent: +8.6 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Wisconsin's +2.1.

WisconsinIowa
Talent composite767.7 (30th)722.7 (44th)
Blue-chip ratio28.6% (30th)20.0% (41st)
Players on roster114 (44th)111 (67th)
Rated by 247Sports84 (44th)85 (41st)
5-star players0 (37th)0 (37th)
4-star players24 (27th)17 (38th)
3-star players54 (95th)64 (56th)
Below 3-star6 (20th)4 (38th)
2026 transfers in33 (22nd)15 (114th)
Transfer share39.3% (34th)17.6% (117th)
SP+ vs. talent+2.1 (55th)+8.6 (21st)
Returning production31.0% (88th)34.2% (83rd)
Returning passing production-500.0% (136th)16.3% (73rd)
Returning rushing production31.8% (78th)19.7% (93rd)
Returning receiving production33.7% (74th)55.9% (36th)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)78 (78th)26 (26th)
Recruiting rank, last four classes46.5 (44th)34.2 (28th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Which roster costs more?

Wisconsin's roster is valued at $20.8M, Iowa's at $18.8M. Dollar for dollar, Iowa plays better: +8.6 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to +2.7 for Wisconsin.

WisconsinIowa
Roster value$20.8M (46th)$18.8M (61st)
Roster cost per win$4.2M (16th)$3.8M (12th)
Projected wins per $1M0.35 (18th)0.41 (6th)
SP+ vs. payroll+2.7 (25th)+8.6 (8th)

NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Wisconsin is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+1.0). Iowa is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.0). Wisconsin's record is running 1.0 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.

WisconsinIowa
RECEIPTS (total)+1.5 (30th)+1.5 (30th)
Schedule RECEIPTS-0.4 (107th)-0.2 (93rd)
Roster RECEIPTS+0.5 (36th)+0.3 (50th)
Coach RECEIPTS+0.4 (51st)+1.0 (26th)
Luck RECEIPTS+1.0 (15th)+0.3 (45th)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Wisconsin at Iowa: questions people ask

Wisconsin vs. Iowa prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick Iowa, 64% chance to win. SP+ and Elo agree; PRIME has Wisconsin. Iowa's best matchup is its pass protection, 7th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Wisconsin's pass rush at 110th.

Where can I watch Wisconsin vs. Iowa, and what time is it?

Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET at Kinnick Stadium. It's on Fox.

What's the projected score of Wisconsin vs. Iowa?

SP+ projects Iowa 18–12. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Wisconsin at Iowa?

DraftKings has Iowa −2.5, total 36.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Wisconsin vs. Iowa series history?

Wisconsin leads 49–48–2. Last meeting: Iowa won 37–0 in 2025.

Who are the players to watch in Wisconsin vs. Iowa?

Wisconsin: Colton Joseph (1,260 passing yards), Abu Sama III (282 rushing yards) and Tyrell Henry (343 receiving yards). Iowa: Hank Brown (976 passing yards), Moulton (521 rushing yards) and Tony Diaz (394 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Wisconsin at Iowa?

Wisconsin's is Colton Joseph (1,260 passing yards this season); Iowa's is Hank Brown (976 passing yards this season).

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Wisconsin and Iowa: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.