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Washington State vs. San Diego State Prediction, Week 9 2026

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Data updatedOct 31, 2026
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How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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Washington State at San Diego State

Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM ET, Snapdragon Stadium.

The numbers say: San Diego State, 51% to win.

The game

KickoffSat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM ET
TVCBSSN
WhereSnapdragon Stadium
Weather68°, light rain, wind 6 mph
LineSan Diego State −2.5, total 47.5
Line movementTotal opened 48.5, down 1.
SeriesWashington State leads 3–1
Last meetingWashington State 36–13 in 2025
San Diego State injuriesDenegal (QB), out

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+San Diego State by 8.072%48
PRIMESan Diego State by 0.953%
EloWashington State66%
The lineSan Diego State −2.547.5, opened 48.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Fri, Oct 30, 7:43 PM ET.

Who wins, Washington State or San Diego State?

The numbers say: San Diego State. 53% chance to win

Which matchups decide Washington State vs. San Diego State?

The ratings split and average out to about 50-50, with San Diego State ahead by a hair. San Diego State's best matchup is its big-play defense, 40th in explosive plays allowed, against Washington State's big-play offense at 129th. Washington State's way back in is its early-down defense, 40th in SUPLEX allowed, against San Diego State's early-down offense at 101st. We left out the edges built on Denegal, who's out.

Washington State with the ball

San Diego State with the ball

Who's out for Washington State and San Diego State?

Washington State

San Diego State

How Washington State and San Diego State compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Washington State and San Diego State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Washington State's and San Diego State's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Washington State and San Diego State?

On a neutral field, SP+ has San Diego State 5.5 points better (104th to 121st). PRIME has Washington State by 1.6 instead. Elo, which only sees results, has Washington State ahead (87th to 116th).

Washington StateSan Diego State
SP+ overall-14.1 (121st)-8.6 (104th)
SP+ offense15.8 (127th)22.4 (104th)
SP+ defense29.5 (96th)31.6 (109th)
SP+ special teams-0.4 (113th)0.5 (4th)
PRIME net-10.2 (109th)-11.8 (116th)
PRIME offense-8.49 (126th)-7.20 (117th)
PRIME defense-0.97 (78th)-4.75 (105th)
PRIME SOS2.4 (19th)-1.1 (56th)
PRIME SOR-2.5 (125th)-1.2 (101st)
Elo1419 (87th)1245 (116th)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Washington State's offense ranks 132nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the San Diego State defense it faces ranks 77th in EPA per play allowed. San Diego State's offense ranks 125th against Washington State's 64th-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face. Adjust for opponents and Washington State's defense climbs from 94th to 64th in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.

Washington StateSan Diego State
EPA per play (adjusted)−0.01 (132nd)+0.01 (125th)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.03 (136th)+0.08 (132nd)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.01 (117th)+0.01 (121st)
Success rate (adjusted)34.4% (135th)36.1% (129th)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)41.7% (134th)44.6% (106th)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)25.5% (135th)25.6% (134th)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.97 (15th)0.93 (90th)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)2.85 (106th)2.95 (70th)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.03 (102nd)1.00 (108th)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.10 (64th)+0.12 (77th)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.15 (48th)+0.25 (102nd)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.10 (104th)+0.05 (56th)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)41.4% (67th)46.6% (124th)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.96 (112th)0.89 (4th)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)3.01 (85th)3.17 (122nd)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)1.28 (103rd)0.74 (1st)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Washington State or San Diego State?

Washington State is better running (111th in EPA per rush) than throwing (134th). San Diego State's run defense ranks 77th, so the defense has the better of it. San Diego State is better running (103rd in EPA per rush) than throwing (123rd). Washington State's run defense ranks 104th. On third down, San Diego State has the edge: its offense ranks 56th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 97th.

Washington StateSan Diego State
EPA per play−0.06 (135th)+0.01 (121st)
EPA per pass−0.08 (134th)+0.02 (123rd)
EPA per rush+0.01 (111th)+0.02 (103rd)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.02 (135th)+0.51 (56th)
EPA per play allowed+0.14 (94th)+0.16 (102nd)
EPA per pass allowed+0.16 (66th)+0.29 (105th)
EPA per rush allowed+0.14 (104th)+0.08 (77th)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.48 (97th)+0.41 (74th)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Washington State or San Diego State?

Washington State is outscored by 8.7 a game, and San Diego State is outscored by 9.6. Washington State's offense ranks 130th in scoring, and the San Diego State defense it faces ranks 133rd in points allowed. San Diego State's offense ranks 86th against Washington State's 100th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.

Washington StateSan Diego State
Points scored18.9 (130th)26.5 (86th)
Points allowed27.6 (100th)36.1 (133rd)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Washington State has no clear edge here. Its best is success rate, 115th, against a defense ranked 126th in success rate allowed. San Diego State has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 103rd, against a defense ranked 114th in yards per carry allowed.

Washington StateSan Diego State
Pass yards / game184.8 (113th)179.9 (117th)
Rush yards / game134.4 (107th)150.6 (92nd)
Yards per play5.57 (109th)5.71 (102nd)
Yards per carry4.95 (84th)4.67 (103rd)
Yards per attempt6.84 (98th)7.38 (81st)
Completion %75.9% (8th)62.6% (72nd)
Success rate38.9% (115th)38.4% (119th)
Explosive play rate8.7% (129th)10.6% (107th)
3rd down conversion33.3% (112th)35.0% (102nd)
Sack rate (taken)10.4% (126th)4.9% (56th)
INT rate (thrown)3.2% (102nd)4.1% (127th)
SUPLEX49.1% (117th)51.5% (101st)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Washington State's defense is best placed to keep offenses behind schedule: it ranks 34th in success rate allowed, and San Diego State's offense is bottom-20 in success rate (119th). That's a mismatch. San Diego State's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 40th in explosive plays allowed, and Washington State's offense is bottom-20 in explosive play rate (129th). That's a mismatch.

Washington StateSan Diego State
Pass yards allowed / game217.1 (82nd)284.9 (133rd)
Rush yards allowed / game176.8 (103rd)187.9 (113th)
Yards per play allowed5.65 (63rd)6.03 (84th)
Yards per carry allowed5.63 (114th)4.67 (58th)
Yards per attempt allowed5.81 (17th)7.89 (87th)
Success rate allowed37.1% (34th)48.6% (126th)
Explosive plays allowed10.9% (66th)10.1% (40th)
3rd downs allowed33.1% (28th)44.7% (112th)
Sack rate (generated)2.6% (135th)5.3% (90th)
INT rate (generated)1.0% (127th)2.1% (80th)
SUPLEX allowed49.9% (40th)61.9% (119th)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

Washington State has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is power success allowed, where Washington State ranks 65th and San Diego State 130th.

Washington StateSan Diego State
Big Uglies: offensive line40.3 (129th)48.6 (84th)
Big Uglies: defensive front44.0 (106th)37.1 (135th)
Line yards per carry2.88 (99th)3.04 (79th)
Line yards allowed per carry3.01 (84th)3.45 (133rd)
Second-level yards per carry1.08 (69th)0.95 (111th)
Open-field yards per carry1.21 (67th)0.99 (94th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)22.3% (125th)19.7% (97th)
Stuff rate (defense)18.1% (79th)10.5% (138th)
Power success (short yardage)66.7% (100th)65.4% (111th)
Power success allowed70.0% (65th)84.2% (130th)
Front-seven havoc allowed11.3% (120th)8.9% (64th)
Front-seven havoc7.9% (114th)6.8% (129th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

San Diego State is −0.3 in turnover margin a game and Washington State is −1.0. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 4-point edge for San Diego State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.

Washington StateSan Diego State
Interceptions thrown / game0.88 (101st)1.00 (105th)
Fumbles lost / game0.75 (112th)0.50 (67th)
Giveaways / game1.63 (116th)1.50 (101st)
Interceptions / game0.38 (113th)0.75 (59th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.25 (113th)0.50 (65th)
Takeaways / game0.63 (123rd)1.25 (64th)
Turnover margin / game-1.0 (126th)-0.3 (85th)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

Washington State has the more talented roster (81st in the 247Sports talent composite; San Diego State is 89th). But San Diego State plays further above its talent: −5.2 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Washington State's −12.1.

Washington StateSan Diego State
Talent composite630.3 (81st)609.2 (89th)
Blue-chip ratio10.8% (65th)1.3% (124th)
Players on roster105 (106th)111 (67th)
Rated by 247Sports74 (84th)78 (70th)
5-star players0 (37th)0 (37th)
4-star players8 (62nd)1 (119th)
3-star players60 (74th)72 (21st)
Below 3-star6 (20th)5 (29th)
2026 transfers in28 (41st)26 (47th)
Transfer share37.8% (38th)33.3% (50th)
SP+ vs. talent-12.1 (126th)-5.2 (99th)
Returning production91.3% (6th)98.7% (3rd)
Returning passing production100.0% (11th)100.0% (11th)
Returning rushing production100.0% (19th)100.0% (19th)
Returning receiving production84.7% (9th)97.3% (2nd)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)128 (128th)83 (83rd)
Recruiting rank, last four classes81.0 (78th)77.8 (74th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Washington State is −3.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.7). San Diego State is −1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.2).

Washington StateSan Diego State
RECEIPTS (total)-3.0 (134th)-1.0 (109th)
Schedule RECEIPTS-0.6 (120th)-0.2 (96th)
Roster RECEIPTS-0.0 (68th)-0.2 (80th)
Coach RECEIPTS-1.7 (130th)-1.2 (118th)
Luck RECEIPTS-0.6 (108th)+0.6 (31st)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Washington State at San Diego State: questions people ask

Washington State vs. San Diego State prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick San Diego State, 53% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME agree; Elo has Washington State. San Diego State's best matchup is its big-play defense, 40th in explosive plays allowed, against Washington State's big-play offense at 129th.

Where can I watch Washington State vs. San Diego State, and what time is it?

Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM ET at Snapdragon Stadium. It's on CBSSN.

What's the projected score of Washington State vs. San Diego State?

SP+ projects San Diego State 28–20. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Washington State at San Diego State?

DraftKings has San Diego State −2.5, total 47.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Washington State vs. San Diego State series history?

Washington State leads 3–1. Last meeting: Washington State won 36–13 in 2025.

Who are the players to watch in Washington State vs. San Diego State?

Washington State: Caden Pinnick (984 passing yards), Kirby Vorhees (277 rushing yards) and Branden Ganashamoorthy (401 receiving yards). San Diego State: Denegal (908 passing yards), Javion Kinnard (526 rushing yards) and Jaylon Hawkins (326 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Washington State at San Diego State?

Washington State's is Caden Pinnick (984 passing yards this season); San Diego State's is Denegal (908 passing yards this season).

Who's out for Washington State at San Diego State?

Washington State: Caden Pinnick (QB) hasn't played since Week 6. San Diego State: Denegal (QB), out.

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Washington State and San Diego State: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.